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Working Paper
Limited Household Risk Sharing: General Equilibrium Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Mitra, Indrajit; Xu, Yu (2020-11-09)
We present a theory in which limited risk sharing of idiosyncratic labor income risk plays a key role in determining the dynamics of interest rates. Our production-based model relates the cross-sectional distribution of labor income risk to observable aggregate labor market variables. Our model makes two key predictions. First, it predicts positive risk premia for long-term bonds while simultaneously matching key macroeconomic moments. Second, it predicts a negative correlation between current labor market conditions (as measured by labor market tightness or the job-finding rate) and future ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-20

Working Paper
Firm Entry and Employment Dynamics in the Great Recession
Siemer, Michael (2014-07-30)
The 2007-2009 recession is characterized by: a large drop in employment, an unprecedented decline in firm entry, and a slow recovery. Using confidential firm-level data, I show that financial constraints reduced employment growth in small relative to large firms by 4.8 to 10.5 percentage points. The effect of financial constraints is robust to controlling for aggregate demand and is particularly strong in small young firms. I show in a heterogeneous firms model with endogenous firm entry and financial constraints that a large financial shock results in a long-lasting recession caused by a ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-56

Working Paper
Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies
Kudlyak, Marianna; Tasci, Murat; Tuzemen, Didem (2023-01-01)
Using a unique data set and a novel identification strategy, we estimate the effect of minimum wage increases on job vacancy postings. Using occupation-specific county-level vacancy data from the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online for 2005-2018, we find that state-level minimum wage increases lead to substantial declines in existing and new vacancy postings in occupations with a larger share of workers who earn close to the prevailing minimum wage. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in the state-level effective minimum wage reduces vacancies by 2.4 percent in the same quarter, and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-10

Working Paper
The Responses of Wages and Prices to Technology Shocks
Williams, John C.; Laubach, Thomas; Edge, Rochelle M. (2003-12-01)
This paper reexamines wage and price dynamics in response to permanent shocks to productivity. We estimate a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of the U.S. economy with sticky wages and sticky prices using impulse responses to technology and monetary policy shocks. We utilize a flexible specification for wage- and price-setting that allows for the sluggish adjustment of both the levels of these variables as in standard contracting models as well as intrinsic inertia in wage and price inflation. On the price front, we find that in our VAR inflation jumps in response to an ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2003-21

Working Paper
Family Job Search and Wealth: The Added Worker Effect Revisited
Garcia-Perez, J. Ignacio; Rendon, Sílvio (2020-04-30)
We propose and estimate a model of family job search and wealth accumulation with data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). This dataset reveals a very asymmetric labor market for household members who share that their job finding is stimulated by their partners' job separation. We uncover a job search-theoretic basis for this added worker effect, which occurs mainly during economic downturns, but also by increased non-employment transfers. Thus, our analysis shows that the policy goal of in-creasing non-employment transfers to support a worker's job search is partially ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-17

Working Paper
Earnings Business Cycles: The Covid Recession, Recovery, and Policy Response
Splinter, David; Larrimore, Jeff; Mortenson, Jacob (2023-01-06)
Using a panel of tax data, we follow the earnings of individuals over business cycles. Compared to prior recessions, the Covid policy response and recovery were far more progressive. Among workers starting in the bottom quintile, median real earnings including fiscal relief increased 66 percent in 2020 and earnings increases offset relief decreases in the 2021 recovery. After the prior two recessions, this measure had decreased by 24 percent. Among those starting in the top quintile, median and average real earnings were approximately unchanged. This difference from prior recessions is ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-004

Working Paper
Wage Setting Under Targeted Search
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Cheremukhin, Anton A. (2022-03-23)
When setting initial compensation, some firms set a fixed, non-negotiable wage while others bargain. In this paper we propose a parsimonious search and matching model with two sided heterogeneity, where the choice of wage-setting protocol, wages, search intensity, and degree of randomness in matching are endogenous. We find that posting and bargaining coexist as wage-setting protocols if there is sufficient heterogeneity in match quality, search costs, or market tightness and that labor market tightness and relative costs of search play a key role in the choice of the wage-setting mechanism. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-041

Working Paper
Human Capital and Unemployment Dynamics: Why More Educated Workers Enjoy Greater Employment Stability
Cairó, Isabel; Cajner, Tomaz (2014-02)
Why do more educated workers experience lower unemployment rates and lower employment volatility? A closer look at the data reveals that these workers have similar job finding rates, but much lower and less volatile separation rates than their less educated peers. We argue that on-the-job training, being complementary to formal education, is the reason for this pattern. Using a search and matching model with endogenous separations, we show that investments in match-specific human capital reduce the outside option of workers, implying less incentives to separate. The model generates ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-09

Working Paper
Recall and unemployment
Moscarini, Giuseppe; Fujita, Shigeru (2013-11-01)
Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) covering 1990-2011, we document that a surprisingly large number of workers return to their previous employer after a jobless spell and experience more favorable labor market outcomes than job switchers. Over 40% of all workers separating into unemployment regain employment at their previous employer; over a fifth of them are permanently separated workers who did not have any expectation of recall, unlike those on temporary layoff. Recalls are associated with much shorter unemployment duration and better wage changes. ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-3

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