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Report
Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks
Fogli, Alessandra; Azzimonti-Renzo, Marina; Perri, Fabrizio; Ponder, Mark (2020-08-19)
We develop an ECON-EPI network model to evaluate policies designed to improve health and economic outcomes during a pandemic. Relative to the standard epidemiological SIR set-up, we explicitly model social contacts among individuals and allow for heterogeneity in their number and stability. In addition, we embed the network in a structural economic model describing how contacts generate economic activity. We calibrate it to the New York metro area during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis and show three main results. First, the ECON-EPI network implies patterns of infections that better match the data ...
Staff Report , Paper 609

Working Paper
The great housing boom of China
Chen, Kaiji; Wen, Yi (2015-11-01)
China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income in the past decade despite (1) a phenomenal rate of return to capital and (2) an alarmingly high vacancy rate. This paper interprets such a prolonged paradoxical housing boom as a rational bubble that emerges naturally from China's large-scale economic transition, featuring an exceptionally high rate of return to capital driven by massive resource reallocation. Because such primarily resource-reallocation-driven high capital returns are not sustainable in the long run, expectations of high future demand for ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-3

Journal Article
The Aggregate Implications of Size-Dependent Distortions
Roys, Nicolas (2018)
This article examines the aggregate implications of size-dependent distortions. These regulations misallocate labor across firms and hence reduce aggregate productivity. The author then considers a case study of labor laws in France, where firms with 50 employees or more face substantially more regulation than firms with fewer than 50. The size distribution of firms is visibly distorted by these regulations: There are many firms with exactly 49 employees. A quantitative model is developed with a payroll tax of 0.15 percent that applies only to firms with more than 50 employees. Removing the ...
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 1

Working Paper
Income-Driven Labor-Market Polarization
Mestieri, Martí; Comin, Diego; Danieli, Ana (2020-10-23)
We propose a mechanism for labor-market polarization based on the nonhomotheticity of demand that we call the income-driven channel. Our mechanism builds on a novel empirical fact: expenditure elasticities and production intensities in low- and high-skill occupations are positively correlated across sectors. Thus, as income grows, demand shifts towards expenditure-elastic sectors, and the relative demand for low- and high-skill occupations increases, causing labor-market polarization. A calibrated general-equilibrium model suggests this mechanism accounts for 90% and 35% of the increase in ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-22

Working Paper
Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility
Caldara, Dario; Scotti, Chiara; Zhong, Molin (2021-08-19)
We study the joint conditional distribution of GDP growth and corporate credit spreads using a stochastic volatility VAR. Our estimates display significant cyclical co-movement in uncertainty (the volatility implied by the conditional distributions), and risk (the probability of tail events) between the two variables. We also find that the interaction between two shocks--a main business cycle shock as in Angeletos et al. (2020) and a main financial shock--is crucial to account for the variation in uncertainty and risk, especially around crises. Our results highlight the importance of using ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1326

Working Paper
Shocks and Adjustments
Nechio, Fernanda; Fernald, John G.; Daly, Mary C.; Jordà, Òscar (2013)
We develop a multisector model in which capital and labor are free to move across firms within each sector, but cannot move across sectors. To isolate the role of sectoral specificity, we compare our model with otherwise identical multisector economies with either economy-wide factor markets (as in Chari et al. 2000) or firm-specific factor markets (as in Woodford 2005). Sectoral specificity induces within-sector strategic substitutability and across-sector strategic complementarity in price setting. Our model can produce either more or less monetary non-neutrality than those other two ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-32

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2001 annual revision
Morin, Norman J.; Corrado, Carol; Gilbert, Charles (2002-03)
In late 2001, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System published the annual revision of its index of industrial production and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period January 1992 to October 2001. The updated measures reflect the incorporation of newly available, more-comprehensive source data and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series. ; Measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter, increases in rates of industrial output and capacity have been revised downward from rates previously reported for 1999 and 2000. The revision ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 88 , Issue Mar , Pages 173-187

Report
The production impact of "cash-for-clunkers": implications for stabilization policy
Kahn, James A.; Copeland, Adam (2011-07-01)
Stabilization policies frequently aim to boost spending as a means to increase GDP. Spending does not necessarily translate into production, however, especially when inventories are involved. We look at the ?cash-for-clunkers? program that helped finance the purchase of nearly 700,000 vehicles in 2009. An analysis of auto sales and production movements reveals that the program did prompt a large spike in sales. But the program had only a modest and fleeting impact on production, as inventories buffered the movements in sales. These findings suggest caution in judging the efficacy of such ...
Staff Reports , Paper 503

Working Paper
Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy
Kim, Hee Soo; Matthes, Christian; Phan, Toan (2011-08-11)
Working Paper , Paper 21-14

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