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Report
The production impact of "cash-for-clunkers": implications for stabilization policy
Kahn, James A.; Copeland, Adam (2011-07-01)
Stabilization policies frequently aim to boost spending as a means to increase GDP. Spending does not necessarily translate into production, however, especially when inventories are involved. We look at the ?cash-for-clunkers? program that helped finance the purchase of nearly 700,000 vehicles in 2009. An analysis of auto sales and production movements reveals that the program did prompt a large spike in sales. But the program had only a modest and fleeting impact on production, as inventories buffered the movements in sales. These findings suggest caution in judging the efficacy of such ...
Staff Reports , Paper 503

Working Paper
Aggregate Implications of Deviations from Modigliani-Miller: A Sufficient Statistics Approach
Zeke, David; Kurtzman, Robert J. (2023-07-06)
A few sufficient statistics can identify the aggregate effects of distortions to firm investment in a class of general equilibrium models that can accommodate rich general equilibrium effects including endogenous firm entry. This result does not depend on the microfoundation of the distortion; one can generate inferences about aggregate effects that apply for multiple microfoundations or in cases where a fully specified model is difficult to solve. To demonstrate the relevance of themethodology, we use it to quantify the aggregate consequences of costly external equity financing and a ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-045

Working Paper
Shipping to America
Bai, Xiwen; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Li, Yiliang; Marto, Ricardo; Zanetti, Francesco (2026-09-21)
We study the macroeconomic and trade-policy implications of disruptions to U.S.-bound shipping routes. Standard models treat them as iceberg-cost shocks, conflating the shock with the response to it. Using satellite vessel-tracking data, we construct route-level measures of potential and effective capacity for all U.S.-bound container ships from 2016 to 2025. Utilization losses in recent disruptions ran 20 to 40 percentage points, and began months before port congestion became visible. We embed these measures in a general equilibrium model in which firms reallocate a common fleet without ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-021

Working Paper
Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil
Engbom, Niklas; Moser, Christian (2018-03-12)
We show that an increase in the minimum wage can have large effects throughout the earnings distribution, using a combination of theory and evidence. To this end, we develop an equilibrium search model featuring empirically relevant worker and firm heterogeneity. The minimum wage induces firms to adjust their equilibrium wage and vacancy policies, leading to spillovers on higher wages. We use the estimated model to evaluate the effects of a 119 percent increase in the real minimum wage in Brazil from 1996 to 2012. The policy change explains a large decline in earnings inequality, with ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 7

Journal Article
Tracking U.S. GDP in Real Time
Bae, Jaeheung; Doh, Taeyoung (2019-07)
Measuring the current state of the U.S. economy in real time is an important but challenging task for monetary policymakers. The most comprehensive measure of the state of the economy?real gross domestic product?is available at a relatively low frequency (quarterly) and with a significant delay (one month). To obtain more timely assessments of the state of the economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has developed a GDP tracking model that combines new econometric methods with two conventional approaches to estimating GDP. {{p}} Taeyoung Doh and Jaeheung Bae review the Kansas City Fed ...
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 5-19

Working Paper
Shocks and Adjustments
Nechio, Fernanda; Fernald, John G.; Daly, Mary C.; Jordà, Òscar (2013)
We develop a multisector model in which capital and labor are free to move across firms within each sector, but cannot move across sectors. To isolate the role of sectoral specificity, we compare our model with otherwise identical multisector economies with either economy-wide factor markets (as in Chari et al. 2000) or firm-specific factor markets (as in Woodford 2005). Sectoral specificity induces within-sector strategic substitutability and across-sector strategic complementarity in price setting. Our model can produce either more or less monetary non-neutrality than those other two ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-32

Journal Article
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Recent Developments and the 1999 Revision
Gilbert, Charles; Raddock, Richard D.; Morin, Norman J. (2000-03)
In late 1999, the Federal Reserve published revised measures of industrial production, capacity, and capacity utilization for the period January 1992 through October 1 999. The updated measures reflect both the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data typical of annual revisions and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series, including computer and office equipment and motor vehicles. The new source data are for recent years, primarily from 1997 on, and the modified methods affect data beginning in 1992. The production index for the third quarter ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 86 , Issue 3 , Pages pp. 188-205

Working Paper
The great housing boom of China
Chen, Kaiji; Wen, Yi (2015-11-01)
China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income in the past decade despite (1) a phenomenal rate of return to capital and (2) an alarmingly high vacancy rate. This paper interprets such a prolonged paradoxical housing boom as a rational bubble that emerges naturally from China's large-scale economic transition, featuring an exceptionally high rate of return to capital driven by massive resource reallocation. Because such primarily resource-reallocation-driven high capital returns are not sustainable in the long run, expectations of high future demand for ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-3

Report
Buy Big or Buy Small? Procurement Policies, Firms' Financing, and the Macroeconomy
di Giovanni, Julian; Pijoan-Mas, Josep; García-Santana, Manuel; Jeenas, Priit; Moral-Benito, Enrique (2022-02-01)
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of public procurement. We exploit novel data to show that procurement eases firms’ borrowing constraints and has persistent effects on firm growth. Using a macroeconomic model with heterogeneous firms, asset- and earnings-based borrowing frictions, and government purchasing, we simulate revenue-neutral reforms that increase the share of small firms in procurement. We find that, despite helping financially constrained firms grow, these policies lead to non-trivial unintended negative effects. On net, the policies lead to a modest decline in GDP. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1006

Working Paper
Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy
Kim, Hee Soo; Matthes, Christian; Phan, Toan (2011-08-11)
Working Paper , Paper 21-14

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