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Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Hur, Sewon; Mau, Ron; Mertens, Karel; Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2024-10-01)
The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2407

Working Paper
Economic Uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Altig, David E.; Baker, Scott Brent; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nick; Bunn, Philip; Chen, Scarlet; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Mizen, Paul; Parker, Nicholas B.; Renault, Thomas; Smietanka, Pawel; Thwaites, Gregory (2020-07-10)
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the United States and the UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and disagreement among professional forecasters about future gross domestic product growth. Three results emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed, most indicators reach their highest values on record. Second, peak ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-9

Working Paper
On Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags
Glancy, David P.; Kurtzman, Robert J.; Loewenstein, Lara (2024-06-27)
We use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long—about 1.5 years—and highly variable, (2) roughly 40 percent of projects are abandoned in planning, and (3) property price appreciation reduces the likelihood of abandonment. We construct a model with endogenous planning starts and abandonment that matches these facts. The model has the testable implication that supply is more elastic when there are more "shovel ready" projects available to advance to construction. We use local projections to ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-14

Journal Article
The Basel Accord and Financial Intermediation: The Impact of Policy
Berka, Martin; Zimmermann, Christian (2018)
This article studies loan activity in a context where banks have to follow Basel Accord?type rules and find financing with the households.
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 2 , Pages 171-200

Working Paper
Capital Gains Taxation and Investment Dynamics
Moon, Terry S.; Hong, Sungki (2019-12-12)
This paper quantifies the long-run effects of reducing capital gains taxes on aggregate investment. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms, which face discrete capital gains tax rates based on firm size. We calibrate our model by targeting micro moments and a difference-in-differences estimate of the capital stock response based on the institutional setting and policy reform in Korea. We find that the reform that reduced the capital gains tax rates for a subset of firms substantially increased investment in the short run, and capturing general equilibrium ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-31

Working Paper
Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium
Melosi, Leonardo; Bianchi, Francesco (2013-09-01)
We develop methods to solve general equilibrium models in which forward-looking agents are subject to waves of pessimism, optimism, and uncertainty that turn out to critically affect macroeconomic outcomes. Agents in the model are fully rational, conduct Bayesian learning, and they know that they do not know. Therefore, agents take into account that their beliefs will evolve according to what they will observe. This framework accommodates both gradual and abrupt changes in beliefs and allows for an analytical characterization of uncertainty. Shocks to beliefs affect economic dynamics and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-12

Working Paper
The great housing boom of China
Chen, Kaiji; Wen, Yi (2015-11-01)
China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income in the past decade despite (1) a phenomenal rate of return to capital and (2) an alarmingly high vacancy rate. This paper interprets such a prolonged paradoxical housing boom as a rational bubble that emerges naturally from China's large-scale economic transition, featuring an exceptionally high rate of return to capital driven by massive resource reallocation. Because such primarily resource-reallocation-driven high capital returns are not sustainable in the long run, expectations of high future demand for ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-3

Working Paper
The Economic Effects of Firm-Level Uncertainty: Evidence Using Subjective Expectations
Fiori, Giuseppe; Scoccianti, Filippo (2021-06-28)
This paper uses over two decades of Italian survey data on business managers' expectations to measure subjective firm-level uncertainty and quantify its economic effects. We document that firm-level uncertainty persists for a few years and varies across firms' demographic characteristics. Uncertainty induces long-lasting economic effects over a broad array of real and financial variables. The source of uncertainty matters with firms responding only to downside uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about future adverse outcomes. Economy-wide uncertainty, constructed aggregating firm-level ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1320

Working Paper
Trade Integration, Global Value Chains and Capital Accumulation
Zhang, Jing; Yi, Kei-Mu; Sposi, Michael (2020-11-10)
Motivated by increasing trade and fragmentation of production across countries since World War II, we build a dynamic two-country model featuring sequential, multistage production and capital accumulation. As trade costs decline over time, global-value-chain (GVC) trade expands across countries, particularly more in the faster growing country, consistent with the empirical pattern. The presence of GVC trade boosts capital accumulation and economic growth and magnifies dynamic gains from trade. At the same time, endogenous capital accumulation shapes comparative advantage across countries, ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 404

Working Paper
A Search-Based Neoclassical Model of Capital Reallocation
Wen, Yi; Dong, Feng; Wang, Pengfei (2018-08-01)
As a form of investment, the importance of capital reallocation between firms has been increasing over time, with the purchase of used capital accounting for 25% to 40% of firms total investment nowadays. Cross- firm reallocation of used capital also exhibits intriguing business-cycle properties, such as (i) the illiquidity of used capital is countercyclical (or the quantity of used capital reallocation across rms is procyclical), (ii) the prices of used capital are procyclical and more so than those of new capital goods, and (iii) the dispersion of firms' TFP or MPK (or the bene t of capital ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-17

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