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Speech
The national and regional economy
Dudley, William (2014-10-07)
Remarks at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York.
Speech , Paper 144

Working Paper
Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment
Wang, Ping; Wong, Russell (2026-02-23)
How large are the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor productivity and unemployment? We develop a labor-search model of technological unemployment where AI learns from workers, raises productivity, and displaces them if renegotiation fails. The model admits three steady states: no AI; some AI with limited capability, more job creation but higher unemployment; unbounded AI with endogenous growth and employment gains. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model implies a threefold productivity gain but a 23% employment loss, half within five years. Plausible parameters give rise to global ...
Working Paper , Paper 26-01

Working Paper
Why Do Households Save and Work?
Borella, Margherita; De Nardi, Mariacristina; Yang, Fang; Torres Chain, Johanna P. (2025-07-15)
This paper develops and estimates a dynamic life-cycle model to quantify why households save and work. The model incorporates multiple sources of risk—health, marital status, wages, medical expenses and mortality—as well as endogenous labor supply and human capital accumulation, retirement, and bequest motives at the death of the first and last household member. We estimate it using PSID and HRS data for the 1941–1945 cohort via the Method of Simulated Moments. Eliminating bequest motives reduces aggregate wealth by 23.8% and labor earnings by 1.2%; removing medical expenses lowers them ...
Working Papers , Paper 2526

Working Paper
Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom
Jacobson, Margaret M. (2022-09-23)
Endogenously optimistic beliefs about future house prices can account for the path and standard deviation of house prices in the U.S. housing boom of the 2000s. In a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and aggregate risk, agents form beliefs about future house prices in response to shocks to fundamentals. In an income expansion with looser credit conditions, agents are more likely to underpredict house prices and revise up their beliefs. Matching the standard deviation and steady rise in house prices results in homeownership becoming less affordable later in the boom as well as ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-061

Working Paper
Rationally Inattentive Savers and Monetary Policy Changes: A Laboratory Experiment
Civelli, Andrea; Deck, Cary; Tutino, Antonella (2019-12-19)
We present a model where rationally inattentive agents decide how much to save while imperfectly tracking interest rate changes. Suitable assumptions on agents’ preferences and interest rate distribution allow us to derive testable theoretical predictions and their implications for monetary policy. We probe these predictions using a laboratory experiment with induced inattention that closely reflects the theoretical assumptions. We find that, empirically, the laboratory data corroborates the results of the theoretical model. In particular, we show that experimental subjects respond to ...
Working Papers , Paper 1915

Working Paper
Granular Income Inequality and Mobility using IDDA: Exploring Patterns across Race and Ethnicity
Kondo, Illenin O.; Rinz, Kevin; Gubbay, Natalie; Hawkins, Brandon; Voorheis, John; Wozniak, Abigail (2024-07-19)
We explore the evolution of income inequality and mobility in the U.S. for a large number of subnational groups defined by race and ethnicity, using granular statistics describing income distributions, income mobility, and conditional income growth derived from the universe of tax filers and W-2 recipients that we observe over a two-decade period (1998–2019). We find that income inequality and income growth patterns identified from administrative tax records differ in important ways from those that one might identify in public survey sources. The full set of statistics that we construct is ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 095

Journal Article
What Explains Lifetime Earnings Differences Across Individuals?
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Pollard, Emily (2019-01)
Expected lifetime earnings are a key factor in many individual decisions, such as whether or not to go to college and what kind of occupation to pursue. However, lifetime earnings differ widely across individuals, and uncovering the factors that explain these differences can be challenging. Some characteristics, such as race and sex, are observable. But other intangible characteristics, such as work performance, are more difficult to quantify. To what degree observable characteristics explain lifetime earnings is an empirical question. {{p}} Jos Mustre-del-Ro and Emily Pollard use a unique ...
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 35-56

Conference Paper
Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics : Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 21-23, 2014
Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank (2014)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Speech
The 2015 economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy
Dudley, William (2014-12-01)
Remarks at Bernard M. Baruch College, New York City.
Speech , Paper 153

Journal Article
As Manufacturing Weakens, Consumers Pull Back
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Pollard, Emily (2019-11-13)
The United States has faced two recent downturns in manufacturing: one from 2014 to 2015 and one that has been ongoing since 2018. We examine consumption growth at the state level to see how consumers have responded to the current downturn relative to the last. We find that during the current downturn, changes in consumption growth at the state level have been negatively correlated with the state?s share of workers in manufacturing. In contrast, we find the opposite relationship during the 2014?15 downturn.
Economic Bulletin

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