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Working Paper
Capital Flows, Asset Prices, and the Real Economy: A "China Shock" in the U.S. Real Estate Market
Zhang, Calvin; Li, Zhimin; Shen, Leslie Sheng (2020-06-30)
We study the effects of foreign real estate capital flows on local asset prices and employment using detailed housing transactions data. We document (i) a "China shock" in the U.S. real estate market after 2007 driven by the Chinese government's house purchase restrictions and (ii) "home bias" in foreign Chinese housing purchases in the United States as they are concentrated in ZIP codes historically populated by ethnic Chinese. Exploiting the quasi-random temporal and spatial variation of real estate capital inflows from China, we find that foreign Chinese housing purchases have a positive ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1286

Working Paper
The Macroeconomics of Irreversibility
Baley, Isaac; Blanco, Andres (2024-12-23)
We study aggregate capital dynamics in an investment model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks, fixed capital adjustment costs, and irreversibility driven by a wedge between capital purchase and resale prices. We derive sufficient statistics capturing the role of investment frictions on aggregate capital fluctuations, measure these statistics with investment microdata, and exploit them to discipline the capital price wedge. Irreversibility doubles the persistence of capital fluctuations and is crucial for reconciling micro-level investment behavior with macroeconomic propagation.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2024-17

Speech
The national and regional economy
Dudley, William (2014-10-07)
Remarks at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York.
Speech , Paper 144

Working Paper
Trade, Relative Prices, and the Canadian Great Depression
MacGee, James; Amaral, Pedro S. (2016-02-12)
Canadian GNP per capita fell by roughly a third between 1928 and 1933. Although the decline and the slow recovery of GNP resemble the American Great Depression, trade was more important in Canada, as exports and imports each accounted for roughly a quarter of Canadian GNP in 1928. The fall in the trade share of GNP of roughly 30 percent between 1928 and 1933 was accompanied by a decline of over 20 percent in the relative prices of exports and imports relative to nontraded goods. We develop a three-sector small open economy model, where wages in the nontraded and import competing sectors ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1606

Working Paper
Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom
Jacobson, Margaret M. (2022-09-23)
Endogenously optimistic beliefs about future house prices can account for the path and standard deviation of house prices in the U.S. housing boom of the 2000s. In a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and aggregate risk, agents form beliefs about future house prices in response to shocks to fundamentals. In an income expansion with looser credit conditions, agents are more likely to underpredict house prices and revise up their beliefs. Matching the standard deviation and steady rise in house prices results in homeownership becoming less affordable later in the boom as well as ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-061

Journal Article
COVID-19 Stuns U.S. and Tenth District Economies, but Both Show Signs of Stabilization
Brown, Jason; Felix, Alison (2020-06-17)
COVID-19 and attempts to slow its spread have led to a decline in economic activity unprecedented in both severity and speed. Although every part of the United States experienced dramatic decreases in activity, states in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, with lower COVID-19 cases as a percentage of the population, have fared slightly better. More recently, national and regional measures of business and consumer activity have improved but remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
Explaining Cross-Cohort Differences in Life Cycle Earnings
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B.; Kong, Yu-Chien (2015-10-01)
College-educated workers entering the labor market in 1940 experienced a 4-fold increase in their labor earnings between the ages of 25 and 55; in contrast, the increase was 2.6-fold for those entering the market in 1980. For workers without a college education these figures are 3.6-fold and 1.5-fold, respectively. Why are earnings profiles flatter for recent cohorts? We build a parsimonious model of schooling and human capital accumulation on the job and calibrate it to earnings statistics of workers from the 1940 cohort. The model accounts for 99 percent of the flattening of earnings ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-35

Working Paper
Minimum Wages, Efficiency and Welfare
Berger, David W.; Herkenhoff, Kyle F.; Mongey, Simon (2022-04-06)
It has long been argued that a minimum wage could alleviate efficiency losses from monopsony power. In a general equilibrium framework that quantitatively replicates results from recent empirical studies, we find higher minimum wages can improve welfare, but most welfare gains stem from redistribution rather than efficiency. Our model features oligopsonistic labor markets with heterogeneous workers and firms and yields analytical expressions that characterize the mechanisms by which minimum wages can improve efficiency, and how these deteriorate at higher minimum wages. We provide a method to ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 058

Working Paper
What Do LLMs Want?
Cook, Thomas R.; Kazinnik, Sophia; Modig, Zach; Palmer, Nathan M. (2025-11-25)
Large language models (LLMs) are now used for economic reasoning, but their implicit "preferences” are poorly understood. We study LLM preferences as revealed by their choices in simple allocation games and a job-search setting. Most models favor equal splits in dictator-style allocation games, consistent with inequality aversion. Structural estimates recover Fehr–Schmidt parameters that indicate inequality aversion is stronger than in similar experiments with human participants. However, we find these preferences are malleable: reframing (e.g., masking social context) and learned ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-19

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