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Working Paper
Trade Risk and Food Security
Leibovici, Fernando; Adamopoulos, Tasso (2024-02)
We study the role of international trade risk for food security, the patterns of production and trade across sectors, and its implications for policy. We document that food import dependence across countries is associated with higher food insecurity, particularly in low-income countries. We provide causal evidence on the role of trade risk for food security by exploiting the exogeneity of the Ukraine-Russia war as a major trade disruption limiting access to imports of critical food products. Using micro-level data from Ethiopia, we empirically show that districts relatively more exposed to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-004

Working Paper
Usual Shocks in our Usual Models
Ferroni, Filippo; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo (2022-09-06)
We propose an event-study research design to identify the nature and propagation of large unusual shocks in DSGE models and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a new shock process where the shock loads on wedges associated with the model's usual shocks. Realizations of the Covid shock come with news about its propagation, allowing us to disentangle the role of beliefs about the future of the pandemic. The model attributes a crucial role to the novel Covid shock in explaining the large contraction in output in the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2022-39

Working Paper
Search with wage posting under sticky prices
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Foerster, Andrew T. (2014-12-01)
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 14-17

Working Paper
Regressive Welfare Effects of Housing Bubbles
Graczyk, Andrew; Phan, Toan (2018-04-18)
We analyze the welfare effects of asset bubbles in a model with income inequality and financial friction. We show that a bubble that emerges in the value of housing, a durable asset that is fundamentally useful for everyone, has regressive welfare effects. By raising the housing price, the bubble benefits high-income savers but negatively affects low-income borrowers. The key intuition is that, by creating a bubble in the market price, savers' demand for the housing asset for investment purposes imposes a negative externality on borrowers, who only demand the housing asset for utility ...
Working Paper , Paper 18-10

Working Paper
Debt Limits and Credit Bubbles in General Equilibrium
Phan, Toan; Vailakis, Yiannis; Martins-da-Rocha, V. Filipe (2019-10-11)
We provide a novel characterization of self-enforcing debt limits in a general equilibrium framework of risk sharing with limited commitment, where defaulters are subject to recourse (a fractional loss of current and future endowments) and exclusion from future credit. We show that debt limits are exactly equal to the present value of recourse plus a credit bubble component. We provide applications to models of sovereign debt, private collateralized debt, and domestic public debt. Implications include an original equivalence mapping among distinct institutional arrangements, thereby ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-19

Working Paper
Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
Higgins, Patrick C.; Zha, Tao; Zhong, Karen (2016-07-01)
Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price index inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and usable for policy analysis ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2016-7

Working Paper
Does Unemployment Risk Affect Business Cycle Dynamics?
Graves, Sebastian (2020-09-18)
In this paper, I show that the decline in household consumption during unemployment spells depends on both liquid and illiquid asset positions. I also provide evidence that unemployment spells predict the withdrawal of illiquid assets, particularly when households have few liquid assets. Motivated by these findings, I embed endogenous unemployment risk in a two-asset heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. The model is consistent with the above evidence and provides a new propagation mechanism for aggregate shocks due to a flight-to-liquidity that occurs when unemployment risk rises. This ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1298

Working Paper
What is Measured in National Accounts?
Young, Henry L.; de Soyres, Francois; Gaillard, Alexandre (2023-05-25)
Most statistical agencies construct sectoral real GDP using double deflation and base period prices. When the base period price used for intermediate inputs is not equal to their marginal revenue product, such as when firms apply a markup, real GDP fluctuations become mechanically linked to variations in intermediate inputs. This is because these inputs generate profits that are incorporated into real value added. Taking this channel into account, we demonstrate that real GDP reported in national accounts substantially diverges from a theory-consistent "physical" value added. This, in turn, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1375

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