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Working Paper
Accounting for Growth in the Age of the Internet The Importance of Output-Saving Technical Change
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Hulten, Charles R. (2017-07-31)
We extend the conventional Solow growth accounting model to allow innovation to affect consumer welfare directly. Our model is based on Lancaster?s New Approach to Consumer Theory, in which there is a separate ?consumption technology? that transforms the produced goods, measured at production cost, into utility. This technology can shift over time, allowing consumers to make more efficient use of each dollar of income. This is ?output-saving? technical change, in contrast to the Solow TFP ?resource-saving? technical change. One implication of our model is that living standards can rise at a ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-24

Working Paper
Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic
Nechio, Fernanda; Jordà, Òscar (2023-04-01)
Following the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation surged to levels last seen in the 1980s. Motivated by vast differences in pandemic support across countries, we investigate the subsequent response of inflation and its feedback to wages. We exploit the differences in pandemic support to identify the effect that these programs had on inflation and the passthrough to wages. Our empirical approach focuses on a novel dynamic difference-in-differences method based on local projections. Our estimates suggest that an increase of 5 percentage points in direct transfers (relative to trend) ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-17

Working Paper
Granular Income Inequality and Mobility using IDDA: Exploring Patterns across Race and Ethnicity
Kondo, Illenin O.; Rinz, Kevin; Gubbay, Natalie; Hawkins, Brandon; Voorheis, John; Wozniak, Abigail (2024-07-19)
We explore the evolution of income inequality and mobility in the U.S. for a large number of subnational groups defined by race and ethnicity, using granular statistics describing income distributions, income mobility, and conditional income growth derived from the universe of tax filers and W-2 recipients that we observe over a two-decade period (1998–2019). We find that income inequality and income growth patterns identified from administrative tax records differ in important ways from those that one might identify in public survey sources. The full set of statistics that we construct is ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 095

Working Paper
Beyond the Streetlight: Economic Measurement in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve
Corrado, Carol; Kennickell, Arthur B.; Cajner, Tomaz (2025-03-21)
This paper was written for the academic conference held in celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Division of Research and Statistics (R&S) of the Federal Reserve Board. The work of the Federal Reserve turns strongly on empirical efforts to understand the structure and state of the economy, and R&S can be thought of as operating a large factory for discovering and developing data and analytical methods to provide evidence relevant to the mission of the Board. This paper, as signaled by its title, illustrates how the measurement research component of the R&S factory often looks far beyond ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-019

Working Paper
The Stock of External Sovereign Debt: Can We Take the Data at ‘Face Value’?
Dias, Daniel A.; Richmond, Christine; Wright, Mark L. J. (2014-05-09)
The stock of sovereign debt is typically measured at face value. Defined as the undiscounted sum of future principal repayments, face values are misleading when debts are issued with different contractual forms or maturities. In this paper, we construct alternative measures of the stock of external sovereign debt for 100 developing countries from 1979 through 2006 that correct for differences in contractual form and maturity. We show that our alternative measures: (1) paint a very different quantitative, and in some cases also qualitative, picture of the stock of developing country external ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-5

Working Paper
Inflation Globally
Nechio, Fernanda; Jordà, Òscar (2018-12-07)
The Phillips curve remains central to stabilization policy. Increasing financial linkages, international supply chains, and managed exchange rate policy have given core currencies an outsized influence on the domestic affairs of world economies. We exploit such influence as a source of exogenous variation to examine the effects of the recent financial crisis on the Phillips curve mechanism. Using a difference-in-differences approach, and comparing countries before and after the 2008 financial crisis sorted by whether they endured or escaped the crisis, we are able to assess the evolution of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2018-15

Working Paper
ICT Asset Prices : Marshaling Evidence into New Measures
Byrne, David M.; Corrado, Carol (2017-01-15)
This paper is a companion to our recent paper, "ICT Prices and ICT Services: What do they tell us about Productivity and Technology?" It provides the sources and methods used to construct national accounts-style price deflators for the major components of ICT investment--communications equipment, computer equipment, and software--that were presented and analyzed in that paper. The ICT equipment measures described herein were also used in Byrne, Fernald, and Reinsdorf (2016). This paper is a companion to our recent paper, "ICT Services and their Prices: What do they tell us about ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-016

Working Paper
Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement
Guvenen, Fatih; Mataloni Jr., Raymond J.; Rassier, Dylan G.; Ruhl, Kim J. (2018-04-24)
Official statistics display a significant slowdown in U.S. aggregate productivity growth that begins in 2004. We show how offshore profit shifting by U.S. multinational enterprises affects GDP and, thus, productivity measurement. Under international statistical guidelines, profit shifting causes part of U.S. production generated by multinationals to be excluded from official measures of U.S. production. Profit shifting has increased significantly since the mid-1990s, resulting in lower measures of U.S. aggregate productivity growth. We construct an alternative measure of value added that ...
Working Papers , Paper 751

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2004 annual revision
Gilbert, Charles; Bayard, Kimberly (2005-01)
In late 2004, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve issued revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 to November 2004. Overall, the changes to total industrial production were small. ; Measured from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2004, industrial output is reported to have increased a little less than shown previously. Production expanded more slowly in 2000 than earlier estimates indicated, whereas the contraction in 2001 was a little less steep. The rise in ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 91 , Issue Win

Working Paper
Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say \"Usually Not\"
Li, Phillip; Chang, Andrew C. (2015-09-04)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-83

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