Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Journal Article
Will Tariffs Touch Off an Inflationary Impulse? Business Execs Think So.
Meyer, Brent; Jalca, Aaron; Sparks, Michael; Wiczer, David (2025-08-21)
Following the inflationary surge from 2021 to 2023, which was touched off by supply chain constraints and shipping bottlenecks, we evaluate a new panel of own-firm price and unit cost growth expectations in the Atlanta Fed's Survey of Business Uncertainty for signs that the anticipated impact from tariffs is broadening beyond directly affected firms. We find evidence for the potential of tariffs to touch off another bout of high inflation. First, firms that are directly exposed to tariffs have increased their year-ahead price growth expectations sharply (by 0.7 percentage points). Second, ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2025 , Issue 4 , Pages 20

Journal Article
How Credible Is Hong Kong's Currency Peg? Insights from Financial Market Prices
Wei, Bin; Jermann, Urban J.; Yue, Vivian Z. (2025-09-25)
This article presents a structural asset-pricing model that quantifies financial market perceptions of the credibility of Hong Kong's Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS). Using data from the foreign exchange market, the authors estimate the probability that the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) remains pegged to the US dollar (USD) and the value the HKD would take if the peg were to break. The analysis reveals multiple episodes when market confidence in the peg declined, with particularly sharp stress in late 2022 and mid-2025. In these periods, capital flows, interest rate differentials, and liquidity ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2025 , Issue 5 , Pages 10

Journal Article
In Optimism We Trust? Explaining the Disconnect between Post-Election Optimism and Own-Firm Expectations
Weitz, Daniel J.; Meyer, Brent (2025-03-04)
We randomly split the CFO survey panel into two separate surveys around the 2024 US elections to discern whether the results of the elections had any impact on financial decision makers' expectations. Respondents to the post-election survey reported sharply higher optimism about the US economy and an improved macroeconomic outlook relative to the pre-election responses. In contrast, own-firm optimism and revenue growth expectations were not meaningfully changed between the two surveys. Among many possible reasons for this disconnect, we highlight the expected impact of the new ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2025 , Issue 2 , Pages 10

Discussion Paper
Mind the Gap: How Do Credit Market Experiences and Borrowing Patterns Differ for Minority-Owned Firms?
Barkely, Brett; Robb, Alicia M.; de Zeeuw, Mels (2018-09-01)
Given the relationship between a small business’s access to financing and its outcomes, and given the growing share of minorities in the U.S. population, it is important that creditworthy firms and entrepreneurs, irrespective of race or ethnicity, are able to secure adequate financial resources to achieve growth and success. This paper employs data from the Federal Reserve System’s 2016 Small Business Credit Survey to explore under what conditions credit market experiences differ for various racial and ethnic ownership groups of small employer firms.The authors find evidence for ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2018-03

Working Paper
Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives
Meyer, Brent; Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath; Weitz, Daniel J.; Edwards, Zach; Baslandze, Salomé; McClure, Ty; Graham, John; Sparks, Michael (2026-03-25)
We use novel data from a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives to study the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on productivity and the workforce. We document substantial heterogeneity in AI adoption across firms, with more than half having already invested, though many smaller firms are only beginning to do so. Labor productivity gains are positive, vary across sectors, and are expected to strengthen in 2026, with the largest effects concentrated in high-skill services and finance. These gains are not primarily driven by firms' capital deepening but instead reflect increases in ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2026-04

Working Paper
COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock
Meyer, Brent; Davis, Steven J.; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria (2021-01-15)
Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. We compute these rates by aggregating over monthly firm-level observations that look back 12 months and ahead 12 months. Second, as of December 2020, firm-level forecasts of sales revenue growth over the next year imply a continuation of recent changes, not a reversal. Third, COVID-19 shifted relative ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-3

Working Paper
Political Connections, Allocation of Stimulus Spending, and the Jobs Multiplier
Choi, Joonkyu; Saffie, Felipe; Penciakova, Veronika (2021-05-13)
Using American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) data, we show that firms lever their political connections to win stimulus grants and that public expenditure channeled through politically connected firms hinders job creation. We build a unique database that links information on campaign contributions, state legislative elections, firm characteristics, and ARRA grant allocation. Using exogenous variation in political connections based on ex-post close elections held before ARRA, we causally show that politically connected firms are 38 percent more likely to secure a grant. Based on an ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-13

Working Paper
The Shift to Remote Work Lessens Wage-Growth Pressures
Meyer, Brent; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria; Davis, Steven J.; Mihaylov, Emil (2022-07-08)
The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of US employers, and we develop novel survey data to quantify its force. Our data imply a cumulative wage-growth moderation of 2.0 percentage points over two years. This moderation offsets more than half the real-wage catchup effect that Blanchard (2022) highlights in his analysis of near-term inflation pressures. The amenity-values gains ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2022-7

Report
Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on the Outlook of Small and Medium-sized Businesses
Schoenle, Raphael; Leer, John; Dietrich, Alexander; Andrade, Philippe; Handley, Sophie; Tang, Jenny; Zakrajšek, Egon (2025-09-05)
A large body of research demonstrates that uncertainty affects many dimensions of firms’ decisions, from investment and hiring to pricing and profitability. To gain a better understanding of how uncertainty induced by shifting trade policy shapes the behavior of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) the authors surveyed decision-makers at SMBs. The survey, administered by Morning Consult, was conducted in three waves: in December 2024, February 2025, and late April 2025. Each wave contained a nationally representative sample of about 600 SMBs.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 2025-12

Report
How Did the MSLP Borrowers Fare Before and During COVID-19?
Qing, Melanie; Ballance, Joshua; Wang, J. Christina (2021-09-08)
This policy brief uses Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) data to assess whether the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP) borrowers were in worse financial health than their peers before COVID-19 hit the economy hard in March 2020 or suffered worse deterioration afterward. The findings can help us better understand why these firms sought to obtain MSLP loans. We find that MSLP borrowers tend to be larger than their peer firms (that is, firms in the same industry and state). Within the same size group, MSLP borrowers are on average younger than their peers. Borrowers tended to have a slightly higher ...
Current Policy Perspectives

show more (90)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY YEAR

FILTER BY BANK

FILTER BY SERIES

FILTER BY CONTENT TYPE

FILTER BY AUTHOR

FILTER BY JEL CLASSIFICATION