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Jel Classification:D14 

Discussion Paper
Following Borrowers through Forbearance

Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data reported that total household debt balances increased slightly in the third quarter of 2020, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. This increase marked a reversal from the modest decline in the second quarter of 2020, a downturn driven by a sharp contraction in credit card balances. In the third quarter, credit card balances declined again, even as consumer spending recovered somewhat; meanwhile, mortgage originations came in at a robust $1.049 trillion, the highest level since 2003. Many of the efforts ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201117

Discussion Paper
Who’s Ready to Spend? Constrained Consumption across the Income Distribution

Spending on goods and services that were constrained during the pandemic is expected to grow at a fast pace as the economy reopens. In this post, we look at detailed spending data to track which consumption categories were the most constrained by the pandemic due to social distancing. We find that, in 2019, high-income households typically spent relatively more on these pandemic-constrained goods and services. Our findings suggest that these consumers may have strongly reduced consumption during the pandemic and will likely play a crucial role in unleashing pent-up demand when pandemic ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210513b

Discussion Paper
What Happens during Mortgage Forbearance?

As we discussed in our previous post, millions of mortgage borrowers have entered forbearance since the beginning of the pandemic, and more than 2 million remain in a program as of March 2021. In this post, we use our Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) data to examine borrower behavior while in forbearance. The credit bureau data are ideal for this purpose because they allow us to follow borrowers over time, and to connect developments on the mortgage with those on other credit products. We find that forbearance results in reduced mortgage delinquencies and is associated with increased paydown of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210519b

Report
The 2016 and 2017 Surveys of Consumer Payment Choice: Technical Appendix

This document serves as the technical appendix to the 2016 and 2017 Surveys of Consumer Payment Choice administered by the Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research (CESR). The Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC) is an annual study designed primarily to collect data on attitudes toward and use of various payment instruments by consumers over the age of 18 in the United States. The main report, which introduces the survey and discusses the principal economic results, is on our website at frbatlanta.org/banking-and-payments/consumer-payments/survey-of-consumer-payment-choice. In ...
Consumer Payments Research Data Reports , Paper 2018-4

Discussion Paper
FHA First-Time Buyer Homeownership Sustainability: An Update

An important part of the mission of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) is to provide affordable mortgages that both promote the transition from renting to owning and create “sustainable” homeownership. The FHA has never defined what it means by sustainability. However, we developed a scorecard in 2018 that tracks the long-term outcomes of FHA first-time buyers (FTBs) and update it again in this post. The data show that from 2011 to 2016 roughly21.8 percent of FHA FTBs failed to sustain their homeownership.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231130

Working Paper
Navigating Higher Education Insurance: An Experimental Study on Demand and Adverse Selection

We conduct a survey-based experiment with 2,776 students at a non-profit university to analyze income insurance demand in education financing. We offered students a hypothetical choice: either a federal loan with income-driven repayment or an income-share agreement (ISA), with randomized framingof downside protections. Emphasizing income insurance increased ISA uptake by 43%. We observe that students are responsive to changes in contract terms and possible student loan cancellation, which is evidence of preference adjustment or adverse selection. Our results indicate that framing specific ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-024

Report
Personality Traits and Financial Outcomes

Surveys indicate that about 4.5 percent of US households do not have a bank account and about one-quarter do not own any credit cards. Among credit cardholders, revolving credit card debt (carrying unpaid balances) is common. Using data from the 2021 Survey and Diary of Consumer Payment Choice and the University of Southern California’s Understanding America Study, this paper looks at whether self-reported personality traits have a significant effect on these financial outcomes when the analysis considers consumers’ income, demographics, and financial literacy. Specifically, it studies ...
Consumer Payments Research Data Reports , Paper 2023-02

Working Paper
Earnings Misperceptions and Household Distress

Households learn whether income changes are temporary or persistent from their own paychecks. This paper develops a quantitative model of financial distress that incorporates this inference and estimates the extent to which households overweight recent outcomes—diagnostic expectations—using survey data on income beliefs. The model explains distress without assuming extreme impatience and aligns with the observed relationship between income and interest rates. Learning and diagnostic expectations account for about half of delinquencies and one-third of bankruptcies. Diagnostic expectations ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-030

Report
Financial education and the debt behavior of the young

Young Americans are heavily reliant on debt and have clear financial literacy shortcomings, yet evidence on the relationship between financial education and youths? subsequent debt behavior remains both limited and mixed. In this paper, we study the effects of exposure to financial training on debt outcomes in early adulthood among a large and representative sample of young Americans. Variation in exposure to financial training comes from statewide changes in high school graduation requirements regarding financial literacy, economics, and mathematics that were mandated in the late 1990s and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 634

Report
The 2013 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice: Technical Appendix

This report serves as the technical appendix to the 2013 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice. The Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC) is an annual study, conducted since 2008 through a partnership between the Consumer Payments Research Center (CPRC) at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the RAND Corporation, designed primarily to collect data on attitudes to and use of various payment instruments by consumers over the age of 18 in the United States. The main report, which introduces the survey and discusses the principal economic results, can be found here. This data report details the ...
Consumer Payments Research Data Reports , Paper 2015-05

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