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Working Paper
Has COVID Changed Consumer Payment Behavior?
Greene, Claire; Merry, Ellen A.; Stavins, Joanna (2021-10-01)
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused large changes in consumer spending, including how people make their payments. We use data from a nationally representative survey of U.S. consumers collected before COVID in 2018 and 2019 and during COVID in 2020 to analyze changes in consumer payment behavior during the pandemic. We find that compared with their payment behavior in 2019, consumers had shifted some of their purchases from in person to online by fall 2020, significantly lowered their use of cash for purchases, and shifted their person-to-person (P2P) payments away from paper (cash and checks). ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-12

Working Paper
A concise test of rational consumer search
Sorensen, Bent E.; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose; Lee, Chloe (2018-06-18)
A simple model of time allocation between work and price-search predicts that consumers spend relatively more time searching for better prices for goods of which they consume relatively more. Using scanner data, we confirm empirically that consumers pay lower (higher) prices for goods that they buy more (less) of than other consumers. Our results are conservative, because we compare goods that are defined as narrowly as possible by UPC codes, and provide a lower bound for the savings obtained from bargain hunting.
Working Papers , Paper 18-4

Working Paper
The Credit Card Spending Channel of Monetary Policy: Micro Evidence from Account-level Data
Bräuning, Falk; Stavins, Joanna (2025-09-01)
Monetary policy impacts consumer spending via the effect of interest rate changes on credit card borrowing. Using supervisory account-level spending and balance data, we estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in the interest rate reduces credit card spending by nearly 9 percent and revolving balances by close to 4 percent. Aggregate results are primarily driven by revolving accounts, while we estimate small and statistically insignificant interest-rate elasticity for transaction accounts. Consistent with financial constraints, low-credit-score accounts tend to adjust spending, while ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-10

Report
Determinants of mortgage default and consumer credit use: the effects of foreclosure laws and foreclosure delays
Chan, Sewin; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Hayashi, Andrew; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2015-06-01)
The mortgage default decision is part of a complex household credit management problem. We examine how factors affecting mortgage default spill over to other credit markets. As home equity turns negative, homeowners default on mortgages and HELOCs at higher rates, whereas they prioritize repaying credit cards and auto loans. Larger unused credit card limits intensify the preservation of credit cards over housing debt. Although mortgage non-recourse statutes increase default on all types of housing debt, they reduce credit card defaults. Foreclosure delays increase default rates for both ...
Staff Reports , Paper 732

Working Paper
Effects of credit scores on consumer payment choice
Stavins, Joanna; Hayashi, Fumiko (2012)
Anecdotally, a negative relationship between the use of debit cards and credit scores has been reported: Consumers with lower credit scores use debit cards more intensively than those with higher credit scores. However, it is not clear whether credit scores have real effects on consumer payment choice or whether the negative relationship is caused by other factors, such as education or income. ; If credit scores have real effects, a negative relationship between debit card use and credit scores could imply supply-side effects, demand-side effects, or a combination of both. If credit scores ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 12-03

Working Paper
Innovations in Mortgage Markets and Increased Spending on Housing
Doms, Mark; Krainer, John (2007-07-01)
Innovations in the mortgage market since the mid-1990s have effectively reduced a number of financing constraints. Coinciding with these innovations, we document a significant change in the propensity for households to own their homes, as well as substantial increases in the share of household income devoted to housing. These changes in housing expenditures are especially large for those groups that faced the greatest financial constraints, and are robust across the changing composition of households and their geographic location. We present evidence that young, constrained households may ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2007-05

Working Paper
Defining Households That Are Underserved in Digital Payment Services
Greene, Claire; Hayashi, Fumiko; Lloro, Alicia; Shy, Oz; Stavins, Joanna; Toh, Ying Lei (2024-09-01)
US households that lack digital means of making and receiving payments cannot participate fully in an increasingly digitized economy. Assessing the scope of this problem and addressing it requires a definition of households that are underserved in digital payments. Traditional definitions of households underserved in the banking system—those that are unbanked and those that are underbanked—do not account for the ownership of nonbank transaction accounts that can be used to make and receive digital payments. In this paper, we define households underserved in digital payments by considering ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-10

Report
The 2011 and 2012 Surveys of Consumer Payment Choice: Technical Appendix
Angrisani, Marco; Foster, Kevin; Hitczenko, Marcin (2014-10-01)
This document serves as the technical appendix to the 2011 and 2012 Surveys of Consumer Payment Choice. The Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC) is an annual study designed primarily to study the evolving attitudes to and use of various payment instruments by consumers over the age of 18 in the United States. The main report, which introduces the survey and discusses the principal economic results, can be found here. In this data report, we detail the technical aspects of the survey design, implementation, and analysis.
Consumer Payments Research Data Reports , Paper 2014-02

Working Paper
Forecasting Consumption Spending Using Credit Bureau Data
Croushore, Dean; Wilshusen, Stephanie M. (2020-06-04)
This paper considers whether the inclusion of information contained in consumer credit reports might improve the predictive accuracy of forecasting models for consumption spending. To investigate the usefulness of aggregate consumer credit information in forecasting consumption spending, this paper sets up a baseline forecasting model. Based on this model, a simulated real-time, out-of-sample exercise is conducted to forecast one-quarter ahead consumption spending. The exercise is run again after the addition of credit bureau variables to the model. Finally, a comparison is made to test ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-22

Report
The 2011 and 2012 Surveys of Consumer Payment Choice
Stavins, Joanna; Schuh, Scott (2014-09-29)
In 2012, the number of consumer payments did not change significantly from 2010 as the economy settled into steady expansion following the financial crisis and recession. After increasing by 28 percent from 2008 to 2010, cash payments by consumers fell back by 10 percent from 2010 to 2012, while the share of cash payments dropped for a third straight year to 26.8 percent. However, the number and dollar value of cash withdrawals and the dollar value of cash holdings by consumers increased in 2012. Credit and charge card payments by consumers, which declined in 2009, rebounded further, ...
Research Data Report , Paper 14-1

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