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Working Paper
Impulse-Based Computation of Policy Counterfactuals
Hebden, James; Winkler, Fabian (2021-07-15)
We propose an efficient procedure to solve for policy counterfactuals in linear models with occasionally binding constraints. The procedure does not require knowledge of the structural or reduced-form equations of the model, its state variables, or its shock processes. Forecasts of the variables entering the policy problem, and impulse response functions of these variables to anticipated policy shocks under an arbitrary policy, constitute sufficient information to construct valid counterfactuals. We show how to compute solutions for instrument rules and optimal discretionary and commitment ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-042

Working Paper
Finite-Order VAR Representation of Linear Rational Expectations Models: With Some Lessons for Monetary Policy
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2016-09-01)
This paper considers the characterization via finite-order VARs of the solution of a large class of linear rational expectations (LRE) models. I propose a unified approach that uses a companion Sylvester equation to check the existence and uniqueness of a solution to the canonical (first-order) LRE model in finite-order VAR form and a quadratic matrix equation to characterize it decoupling the backward- and forward-looking aspects of the model. I also investigate the fundamentalness of the shocks recovered. Solving LRE models by this procedure is straightforward to implement, general in its ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 285

Working Paper
A Portfolio-Balance Approach to the Nominal Term Structure
King, Thomas B. (2013-11-20)
Explanations of why changes in the relative quantities of safe debt seem to affect asset prices often appeal informally to a ?portfolio balance? mechanism. I show how this type of effect can be incorporated in a general class of structural, arbitrage-free asset-pricing models using a numerical solution method that allows for a wide range of nonlinearities. I consider some applications in which the Treasury market is isolated, investors have mean-variance preferences, and the short-rate process is truncated at zero. Despite its simplicity, a version of this model incorporating inflation can ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-18

Working Paper
Adverse Selection, Risk Sharing and Business Cycles
Veracierto, Marcelo (2014-10-22)
I consider a real business cycle model in which agents have private information about an idiosyncratic shock to their value of leisure. I consider the mechanism design problem for this economy and describe a computational method to solve it. This is an important contribution of the paper since the method could be used to solve a wide class of models with heterogeneous agents and aggregate uncertainty. Calibrating the model to U.S. data I find a striking result: That the information frictions that plague the economy have no effects on business cycle fluctuations.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-10

Working Paper
Benchmarking Global Optimizers
Arnoud, Antoine; Guvenen, Fatih; Kleineberg, Tatjana (2023-12-15)
We benchmark six global optimization algorithms by comparing their performance on challenging multidimensional test functions as well as on a method of simulated moments estimation of a panel data model of earnings dynamics. Five of the algorithms are from the popular NLopt open-source library: (i) Controlled Random Search with local mutation (CRS), (ii) Improved Stochastic Ranking Evolution Strategy (ISRES), (iii) Multi-Level Single-Linkage (MLSL), (iv) Stochastic Global Optimization (StoGo), and (v) Evolutionary Strategy with Cauchy distribution (ESCH). The sixth algorithm is TikTak, which ...
Working Papers , Paper 801

Working Paper
Asymmetric firm dynamics under rational inattention
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Tutino, Antonella (2014-10-01)
We study the link between business failures, markups and business cycle asymmetry in the U.S. economy with a model of optimal firm exit under rational inattention. We show that the model's predictions of lagged, counter-cyclical and positively skewed markups together with counter-cyclical exit rates are consistent with the empirical evidence. Moreover, our model uncovers a new mechanism that links information processing with the business cycle. It predicts counter-cyclical attention to economic conditions consistent with survey evidence.
Working Papers , Paper 1411

Working Paper
Asymmetric Information and the Death of ABS CDOs
Beltran, Daniel O.; Thomas, Charles P.; Cordell, Lawrence R. (2013)
A key feature of the 2007 financial crisis is that for many securities trading had ceased; where trading did occur, market prices were well below intrinsic values, especially for ABS CDOs. One explanation is that information had been asymmetric, with sellers having better information than buyers. We first show the information advantages sellers had over buyers in both the issuance of CDOs and, through vertical integration, performance of the CDO collateral that could well have disrupted trading after the onset of the crisis. Using a ?workhorse" model for pricing securities under asymmetric ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1075

Working Paper
Efficient Computation with Taste Shocks
Gordon, Grey (2019-09-11)
Taste shocks result in nondegenerate choice probabilities, smooth policy functions, continuous demand correspondences, and reduced computational errors. They also cause significant computational cost when the number of choices is large. However, I show that, in many economic models, a numerically equivalent approximation may be obtained extremely efficiently. If the objective function has increasing differences (a condition closely tied to policy function monotonicity) or is concave in a discrete sense, the proposed algorithms are O(n log n) for n states and n choice--a drastic improvement ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-15

Working Paper
Finite-State Markov-Chain Approximations: A Hidden Markov Approach
Janssens, Eva F.; McCrary, Sean (2023-05-19)
This paper proposes a novel finite-state Markov chain approximation method for Markov processes with continuous support, providing both an optimal grid and transition probability matrix. The method can be used for multivariate processes, as well as non-stationary processes such as those with a life-cycle component. The method is based on minimizing the information loss between a Hidden Markov Model and the true data-generating process. We provide sufficient conditions under which this information loss can be made arbitrarily small if enough grid points are used. We compare our method to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-040

Working Paper
The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models
Zha, Tao; Waggoner, Daniel F.; Wu, Hongwei (2014-11-01)
Having efficient and accurate samplers for simulating the posterior distribution is crucial for Bayesian analysis. We develop a generic posterior simulator called the "dynamic striated Metropolis-Hastings (DSMH)" sampler. Grounded in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, it draws its strengths from both the equi-energy sampler and the sequential Monte Carlo sampler by avoiding the weaknesses of the straight Metropolis-Hastings algorithm as well as those of importance sampling. In particular, the DSMH sampler possesses the capacity to cope with incredibly irregular distributions that are full ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-21

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