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Working Paper
Bubbly Recessions
Hanson, Andrew; Phan, Toan; Biswas, Siddhartha (2018-02-22)
We develop a tractable rational bubbles model with financial frictions, downward nominal wage rigidity, and the zero lower bound. The interaction of financial frictions and nominal rigidities leads to a "bubbly pecuniary externality," where competitive speculation in risky bubbly assets can result in excessive investment booms that precede inefficient busts. The collapse of a large bubble can push the economy into a "secular stagnation" equilibrium, where the zero lower bound and the nominal wage rigidity constraint bind, leading to a persistent and inefficient recession. We evaluate a ...
Working Paper , Paper 18-5

Working Paper
Wicksell's monetary framework and dynamic stability
Humphrey, Thomas M.; Graboyes, Robert F. (1990)
Traditionally, central banks seeking to stabilize general prices have followed policies similar to those advocated by Knut Wicksell: when prices are higher that desired, raise interest rates to exert downward pressure on prices, and conversely. Despite the historical predominance of interest rate-based monetary policies, analysts frequently focus on how prices are affected by control of the money stock (or its high-powered base). In those cases where they do examine the relationship between interest rates and prices, they mostly do so in a Keynesian framework rather than a Wicksellian one. ...
Working Paper , Paper 90-07

Working Paper
Asymmetric information and the lack of international portfolio diversification
Hatchondo, Juan Carlos (2005)
There is pervasive evidence that individuals invest primarily in domestic assets and thus hold poorly diversified portfolios. Empirical studies suggest that informational asymmetries may play a role in explaining the bias towards domestic assets. In contrast, theoretical studies based on asymmetric information fail to produce significant quantitative effects. The present paper develops a theoretical model in which the presence of informational asymmetries explains a significant fraction of the home equity bias observed in the data. The main departure from previous theoretical work is the ...
Working Paper , Paper 05-07

Working Paper
An alternative method of estimating the Cagan money demand function in hyperinflation under rational expectations
Goodfriend, Marvin (1979)
This paper contains a description and implementation of a new strategy for estimating the Cagan money demand function under rational expectations.
Working Paper , Paper 79-05

Working Paper
The bond rate and actual future inflation
Mehra, Yash P. (1997)
The long-term bond rate is cointegrated with the actual one-period inflation rate during two sample periods, 1961Q1 to 1979Q3 and 1961Q1 to 1995Q4. This result indicates that in the long run the bond rate and actual inflation move together. The nature of short-run dynamic adjustments between these variables has, however, changed over time. In the pre-1979 period, when the bond rate rose above the one-period inflation rate, actual inflation accelerated. In the post-1979 period, however, the bond rate reverted back and actual inflation did not accelerate. Thus, the bond rate signaled future ...
Working Paper , Paper 97-03

Working Paper
A general model of bank decisions
Broaddus, Alfred (1974)
This paper presents a general theoretical model of individual bank balance sheet management under conditions of uncertainty.
Working Paper , Paper 74-06

Working Paper
A literature review on the effectiveness of financial education
Martin, Matthew (2007)
This survey summarizes current research on financial literacy efforts. Because most financial literacy programs are relatively new, much of the literature reviewed here is also new and part of a field that is still developing as a program of research. However, we can conclude that financial education is necessary and that many existing approaches are effective. Among the findings are that some households make mistakes with personal finance decisions; mistakes are more common for low income and less educated households; there is a causal connection between increases in financial knowledge and ...
Working Paper , Paper 07-03

Working Paper
The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s
Hahn, Thomas K.; Cook, Timothy Q. (1988)
The standard empirical test of whether the Federal Reserve can influence interest rates is to regress interest rates on current and past (actual or unexpected) values of money growth. This literature generally finds little support for the view that the Fed can influence interest rates, except perhaps through the positive impact on inflation expectations of increases in money growth.
Working Paper , Paper 88-04

Working Paper
Theory of the firm: applied mechanism design
Townsend, Robert M.; Prescott, Edward Simpson (1996)
This paper studies the question: Why are there Firms? Motivated by observations of a variety of economies, several distinct concepts of what it means to be a firm are identified and then analyzed with mechanism design models. In the first class of models, a group of individuals is a firm if they collude and share information. This model is analyzed and compared with the non-firm alternative. Conditions are provided in which firms are preferred to no firms and vice versa. Next, we show how an economy with multiple distinct groups of colluding individuals can be decentralized. ; In the next ...
Working Paper , Paper 96-02

Working Paper
On the employment effect of technology : evidence from U.S. manufacturing for 1958-1996
Chang, Yongsung; Hong, Jay H. (2003)
Recently, Gal and others have found that technological progress may be contractionary: a favorable technology shock reduces hours worked in the short run. We ask whether this observation is robust in disaggregate data. According to our VAR analysis of 458 four-digit U.S. manufacturing industries for 1958-1996, some industries do exhibit temporary reduction in hours in response to a permanent increase in TFP. However, there are far more industries in which technological progress significantly increases hours. Using micro data on average price duration, we ask whether the difference across ...
Working Paper , Paper 03-06

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