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Discussion Paper
Household Services Expenditures: An Update
McCarthy, Jonathan (2012-11-26)
This post updates and extends my July 2011 blog piece on household discretionary services expenditures. I examine the most recent data to see what they reveal about the depth of decline in expenditures in the last recession and the extent of the recovery, and find that the expenditures appear to be further below the peak identified earlier. I then compare the pace of recovery for discretionary and nondiscretionary services in this expansion with that of previous expansions, finding that the pace in both cases is well below that of previous cycles. In summary, household spending continues to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121126

Discussion Paper
Medicare and Financial Health across the United States
Goldsmith-Pinkham, Paul; Wallace, Jacob; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2020-07-08)
Consumer financial strain varies enormously across the United States. One pernicious source of financial strain is debt in collections—debt that is more than 120 days past due and that has been sold to a collections agency. In Massachusetts, the average person has less than $100 in collections debt, while in Texas, the average person has more than $300. In this post, we discuss our recent staff report that exploits the fact that virtually all Americans are universally covered by Medicare at 65 to show that health insurance not only improves financial health on average, but also is a major ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200708e

Discussion Paper
Flood Risk and Firm Location Decisions in the Fed’s Second District
Hannaoui, Oliver Zain; Jung, Hyeyoon; Santos, João A. C.; Seltzer, Lee (2023-11-14)
The intensity, duration, and frequency of flooding have increased over the past few decades. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 99 percent of U.S. counties have been impacted by a flooding event since 1999. As the frequency of flood events continues to increase, the number of people, buildings, and agriculture exposed to flood risk is only likely to grow. As a previous post points out, measuring the geographical accuracy of such risk is important and may impact bank lending. In this post, we focus on the distribution of flood risk within the Federal Reserve’s ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231114

Discussion Paper
Investor Diversity and Liquidity in the Secondary Loan Market
Santos, Joao A. C.; Shao, Pei (2017-08-09)
Over the last two decades, the U.S. secondary loan market has evolved from a relatively sleepy market dominated by banks and insurance companies that trade only occasionally to a more active market comprising a diversified set of institutional investors, including collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), loan mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds, brokers, and private equity firms. This shift resulted from the growing presence of these investors in the syndicates of corporate loans, as shown in the chart below. In 1991 the average term loan had just two different types of investors; by 2013 ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170809

Discussion Paper
Stress Test Success and Bank Opacity
Morgan, Donald P. (2011-05-25)
In contemplating the recent financial panic, it is easy to get lost in the weeds of repo markets and asset-backed securities and lose sight of the fact that, at the fundamental level, the panic was about inadequate information. Investors were uncertain about what particular assets were worth, and they were uncertain about which banks were exposed to those assets and to what degree. They were also uncertain about how the government would handle undercapitalized banks. It was against this background that the Treasury announced in February 2009 that the nineteen largest U.S. bank holding ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110525

Discussion Paper
Discounting the Long-Run
Diamond, Peter A.; Yu, Rui; Adrian, Tobias; Crump, Richard K. (2015-08-31)
Expectations about the path of interest rates matter for many economic decisions. Three sources for obtaining information about such expectations are available. The first is extrapolation from historical data. The second consists of surveys of expectations. The third are expectations drawn from financial market prices, often referred to as market expectations. The last are usually considered to be model-based expectations, because, generally, a model is needed to reliably extract expectations from current prices. In this post, we explain the need for and usage of term structure models for ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150831

Discussion Paper
Just Released: Hints of Increased Hardship in America’s Oil-Producing Counties
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2016-05-24)
Today, the New York Fed released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2016. Overall debt saw one of its larger increases since deleveraging ended, while delinquency rates for the United States continued to improve and remain at very low levels. Although the overall picture of Americans? liabilities has continued to improve since the financial crisis, we wondered what the variation looks like at local levels. One advantage of our Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), which is based on Equifax credit data, is that we can examine geographic variation in debt and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160524

Discussion Paper
Going with the Flow: Changes in Banks’ Business Model and Performance Implications
Cetorelli, Nicola; Jacobides, Michael G.; Stern, Samuel (2021-09-01)
Does the performance of banks improve or worsen when banks enter into new business activities? And does it matter which activities a bank expands into, or retreats from, and when that decision is made? These important questions have remained unaddressed due to a lack of data. In a recent publication, we used a unique data set detailing the organizational structure of the entire population of U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs). In this post, we draw on that research to show that while scope expansion on average hurts performance, entering into activities that are highly synergistic with core ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210901

Discussion Paper
Introduction to a Series on Market Liquidity
Adrian, Tobias; Schaumburg, Ernst; Fleming, Michael J. (2015-08-17)
Market participants and policymakers have recently raised concerns about market liquidity?the ability to buy and sell securities quickly, at any time, at minimal cost. Market liquidity supports the efficient allocation of capital through financial markets, which is a catalyst for sustainable economic growth. Changes in market liquidity, whether due to regulation, changes in market structure, or otherwise, are therefore of great interest to policymakers and market participants alike.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150817

Discussion Paper
Low Productivity Growth: The Capital Formation Link
Steindel, Charles; Peach, Richard (2017-06-26)
A major economic concern is the ongoing sluggishness in the growth of output per worker hour, generally called labor productivity. In an arithmetic sense, the growth of the economy can be accounted for by the increase in hours worked plus that of labor productivity. With the unemployment rate now at a level widely regarded as near ?full employment,? growth in hours worked is likely to be limited by demographic forces, most importantly the very limited expansion of the working-age population. If productivity growth also remains low, the sustainable pace of increase of real GDP will be limited ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170626

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