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Discussion Paper
How Did China’s COVID-19 Shutdown Affect U.S. Supply Chains?
Heise, Sebastian (2020-05-12)
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on trade between the United States and China so far. As workers became sick or were quarantined, factories temporarily closed, disrupting international supply chains. At the same time, the trade relationship between the United States and China has been characterized by rising protectionism and heightened trade policy uncertainty over the last few years. Against this background, this post examines how the recent period of economic disruptions in China has affected U.S. imports and discusses how this episode might impact firms’ supply chains ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200512

Discussion Paper
Is the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform Working?
Morgan, Donald P. (2012-06-04)
While the name of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act suggests two goals, BAPCPA seemed to be more about abuse prevention than consumer protection. The abuse alleged by proponents of BAPCPA, particularly credit card lenders, was that filers were using Chapter 7 bankruptcy to avoid paying credit card debt they could afford to pay. BAPCPA aimed to curb the alleged abuse through a variety of obstacles, most notably a means test intended to divert better off filers from Chapter 7, where credit card and other unsecured debts are discharged (forgiven), to Chapter 13, where ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120604

Discussion Paper
Insurance Companies and the Growth of Corporate Loan Securitization
Santos, João A. C.; Fringuellotti, Fulvia (2021-10-13)
Collateralized loan obligation (CLO) issuances in the United States increased by a factor of thirteen between 2009 and 2019, with the volume of outstanding CLOs more than doubling to approach $647 billion by the end of that period. While researchers and policy makers have been investigating the impact of this growth on the cost and riskiness of corporate loans and the potential implications for financial stability, less attention has been paid to the drivers of this phenomenon. In this post, which is based on our recent paper, we shed light on the role that insurance companies have played in ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20211013

Discussion Paper
What if? A Counterfactual SOMA Portfolio
Long, Grant; Fleming, Michael J.; Remache, Julie; Leonard, Deborah (2013-08-14)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has actively used changes in the size and composition of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio to implement monetary policy in recent years. These actions have been intended to promote the Committee?s mandate to foster maximum employment and price stability but, as discussed in a prior post, have also generated high levels of portfolio income, contributing in turn to elevated remittances to the U.S. Treasury. In the future, as the accommodative stance of monetary policy is eventually normalized, net portfolio income is likely to decline from ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130814b

Discussion Paper
High Unemployment and Disinflation in the Euro Area Periphery Countries
Klitgaard, Thomas; Peck, Richard (2014-07-14)
Economists often model inflation as dependent on inflation expectations and the level of economic slack, with changes in expectations or slack leading to changes in the inflation rate. The global slowdown and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis caused the greatest divergence in unemployment rates among euro area member countries since the monetary union was founded in 1999. The pronounced differences in economic performances of euro area countries since 2008 should have led to significant differences in price behavior. That turned out to be the case, with a strong correlation evident between ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140714a

Discussion Paper
Staying In College Longer Than Four Years Costs More Than You Might Think
Deitz, Richard; Abel, Jaison R. (2014-09-03)
In yesterday’s blog post and in our recent article in the New York Fed’s Current Issues series, we showed that the economic benefits of a bachelor’s degree still outweigh the costs, on average, even in today’s difficult labor market. Like others who assess the value of a bachelor’s degree, we base our estimates on the assumption that a student takes four years to finish the degree. But it is not uncommon for people to take longer than that. In fact, recent data indicate that among those who complete a bachelor’s degree within six years, only about two-thirds finish in four years ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140903

Discussion Paper
Reframing the Debate about Payday Lending
Strain, Michael R.; Morgan, Donald P.; DeYoung, Robert; Mann, Ronald J. (2015-10-19)
Except for the ten to twelve million people who use them every year, just about everybody hates payday loans. Their detractors include many law professors, consumer advocates, members of the clergy, journalists, policymakers, and even the President! But is all the enmity justified? We show that many elements of the payday lending critique—their “unconscionable” and “spiraling” fees and their “targeting” of minorities—don’t hold up under scrutiny and the weight of evidence. After dispensing with those wrong reasons to object to payday lenders, we focus on a possible right ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20151019a

Discussion Paper
What Happens When Regulatory Capital Is Marked to Market?
Vickery, James; Fuster, Andreas (2018-10-11)
Minimum equity capital requirements are a key part of bank regulation. But there is little agreement about the right way to measure regulatory capital. One of the key debates is the extent to which capital ratios should be based on current market values rather than historical ?accrual? values of assets and liabilities. In a new research paper, we investigate the effects of a recent regulatory change that ties regulatory capital directly to the market value of the securities portfolio for some banks.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20181011

Discussion Paper
How Does the Liquidity of New Treasury Securities Evolve?
Fleming, Michael J. (2020-08-26)
In a recent Liberty Street Economics post, we showed that the newly reintroduced 20-year bond trades less than other on-the-run Treasury securities and has similar liquidity to that of the more interest‑rate‑sensitive 30-year bond. Is it common for newly introduced securities to trade less and with higher transaction costs, and how does security trading behavior change over time? In this post, we look back at how liquidity evolved for earlier reintroductions of Treasury securities so as to gain insight into how liquidity might evolve for the new 20-year bond.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200826

Discussion Paper
Banking Deserts, Branch Closings, and Soft Information
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Morgan, Donald P.; Yang, Bryan (2016-03-07)
U.S. banks have shuttered nearly 5,000 branches since the financial crisis, raising concerns that more low-income and minority neighborhoods may be devolving into ?banking deserts? with inadequate, or no, mainstream financial services. We investigate this issue and also ask whether such neighborhoods are particularly exposed to branch closings?a development that, according to recent research, could reduce credit access, even with other branches present, by destroying ?soft? information about borrowers that influences lenders? credit decisions. Our findings are mixed, suggesting that further ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160307

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