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Working Paper
The magnitude and cyclical behavior of financial market frictions
Zakrajšek, Egon; Natalucci, Fabio M.; Levin, Andrew T. (2004)
We quantify the cross-sectional and time-series behavior of the wedge between the cost of external and internal finance by estimating the structural parameters of a canonical debt-contracting model with informational frictions. For this purpose, we construct a new dataset that includes balance sheet information, measures of expected default risk, and credit spreads on publicly traded debt for about 900 U.S. firms over the period 1997Q1 to 2003Q3. Using nonlinear least squares, we obtain precise time-specific estimates of the bankruptcy cost parameter and consistently reject the null ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2004-70

Working Paper
Household, Bank, and Insurer Exposure to Miami Hurricanes: a flow-of-risk analysis
Dennis, Benjamin (2023-02-13)
We analyze possible future financial losses in the event of hurricane damage to Miami residential real estate, where the hurricane's destructiveness reflects climate-change. We focus on three scenarios: (i) a business-as-usual scenario, (ii) a Hurricane-Ian-spillovers scenario, and (iii) a cautious-markets scenario. We quantify bank exposures and loss rates, where exposures are proportional to the size of real estate markets and loss rates depend on post-hurricane devaluations and insurance coverage. This quantitative methodology could complement modeling of local economy impacts, stress ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-013

Working Paper
Off-farm labor supply and fertilizer use
Lamb, Russell L. (1996)
I develop a two-period stochastic dynamic programming model to explain the interaction between fertilizer use and off-farm labor supply. Using a well-known sample of Indian farmers, I find that fertilizer use responds strongly to the village wage and that irrigation raises fertilizer use, while larger farmers use less fertilizer (per acre) than smaller ones. Response to one-sided production shocks, is stronger for female labor, indicating that it is more important for smoothing consumption than male labor.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1996-49

Working Paper
Health care costs, wages, and aging
Sheiner, Louise (1999)
While economists generally agree that workers pay for their health insurance costs through reduced wages, there has been little thought devoted to the level at which these costs are passed on: Is each employee's wage reduced by the amount of his or her own health costs, by the average health costs of employees in the firm, or by some amount in between? This paper analyzes one dimension of the question of how firms pass health costs to workers. Using cross-city variation in health costs, I test whether older workers pay for their higher health costs in the form of lower wages. I find that in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-19

Working Paper
Women's Labor Force Exits during COVID-19: Differences by Motherhood, Race, and Ethnicity
Lim, Katherine; Zabek, Mike (2021-10-18)
In this paper, we study declines in women's labor force participation by race and ethnicity as well as the presence of children. We find that increases in labor force exits were larger for Black women, Latinas, and women living with children. In particular, we find larger increases in pandemic-era labor force exits among women living with children under age 6 and among lower-earning women living with school-age children after controlling for detailed job and demographic characteristics. Latinas and Black women also had larger increases in labor force exits during the pandemic relative to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-067

Working Paper
Idiosyncratic variation of Treasury bill yields
Duffee, Gregory R. (1994)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 94-28

Working Paper
Consumption smoothing among working-class American families before social insurance
Palumbo, Michael G.; Thomas, Mark; James, John A. (1999)
This paper examines whether the saving decisions of a large sample of working-class American families around the turn of the twentieth century are consistent with consumption smoothing tendencies in the spirit of the permanent income hypothesis. We develop two econometric models to decompose reported annual incomes from micro-data into expected and unexpected components, then we estimate marginal propensities to save out of each component of income. The two methodologies deliver similar regression estimates and reveal empirical patterns consistent with those reported in other recent research ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-24

Working Paper
Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty : A US and Euro Area Comparison
Grishchenko, Olesya V.; Mouabbi, Sarah; Renne, Jean-Paul (2017-10-03)
We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the US, while mild de-anchoring occurred in the euro-area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-102

Working Paper
Bank commercial loan fair value practices
Tschirhart, John; Moise, Michael; Yang, Emily; O'Brien, James M. (2007)
Recent accounting changes, for the first time, permit the use of fair value in the primary financial statements for held-to-maturity (HTM) bank loans. While the use of fair value has historically attracted significant discussion and debate, there is little information in the public domain on how banks would measure fair value or use it in loan management. This study presents and analyzes results from in-depth discussions with seven large internationally-active banks on their fair value use and measurement for HTM commercial loans and commitments. The objectives of the discussions and those of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2007-29

Working Paper
The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages
Fleischman, Charles A. (1999)
A model's ability to explain procyclical movements in real wages has become an important benchmark by which macroeconomists judge business cycle theories. Because Keynesian models with sticky nominal wages predict countercyclical real wages, they have been criticized and dismissed in favor of Real Business Cycle models or New Keynesian models based on price stickiness or countercyclical markups. The bulk of the evidence for procyclical real wages, however, comes from studies using panel data that estimate the unconditional, contemporaneous correlation between real wages and the unemployment ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-53

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