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Series:Working Papers (Old Series) 

Working Paper
Currency portfolios and nominal exchange rates in a dual currency search economy

The authors analyze a dual-currency search model in which agents may hold multiple units of both currencies. They study equilibria in which the two currencies are identical and equilibria in which the two currencies differ according to the magnitude of the "inflation tax" risk associated with each. When one currency has the right amount of risk, equilibria exist in which the safe currency trades for multiple units of the risky one (pure currency exchange). As a result, the steady state has a distribution of nominal exchange rates. The mean and variance of this distribution typically change ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9916

Working Paper
Testing for speculative bubbles in stock prices

A modification of Kenneth West's method for investigating speculative bubbles in stock prices, in which a direct test of the "no bubble" hypothesis is applied to long-term annual U.S. stock-market data.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 8807

Working Paper
Amenities and the returns to human capital

A demonstration that regional differences in the returns to human capital do not necessarily imply structural differences in regional labor markets, but could be reflecting compensation for regional differences in amenities.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 8709

Working Paper
The Ohio economy: using time series characteristics in forecasting

The premise of this study is that the regional economist can better understand the Ohio economy by studying the properties of important Ohio time series that can be identified and quantified through simple regression methods.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 8508

Working Paper
Sterilized intervention, nonsterilized intervention, and monetary policy

Sterilized intervention is generally ineffective. Countries that conduct monetary policy using an overnight, interbank rate as an intermediate target automatically sterilize their interventions. Nonsterilized interventions can influence nominal exchange rates, but they conflict with price stability unless the underlying shocks prompting them are domestic in origin and monetary in nature. Nonsterilized interventions, however, are unnecessary since standard open-market operations can achieve the same result.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0110

Working Paper
A technique for estimating a cost system that allows for inefficiency

The presentation of a new econometric technique for estimating a system of cost and input share equations that allow for inefficiency.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 8704

Working Paper
Costly Information Intermediation as a Natural Monopoly

In this paper, we show that information trade has similar characteristics to a natural monopoly, where competition may be detrimental to efficiency due either to the duplication of direct costs or the slowing down of information dissemination. We present a model with two large populations in which consumers are randomly matched to providers on a period-by-period basis. Despite a moral hazard problem, cooperation can be sustained through an institution that gives incentives to information exchange. We consider different information pricing mechanisms (membership vs. buy and sell) and different ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1721

Working Paper
Marriage and consumption insurance: what's love got to do with it?

This paper explores marriage?s role when markets are incomplete and individuals cannot diversify their idiosyncratic labor income risk. All else being equal, an individual would rather marry a ?hedge? (a person whose income is negatively correlated with her own) because doing so raises her expected utility. However, the existence of love complicates the picture: Although marrying a hedge is important, an individual may not do so if she finds someone with whom she shares a great deal of love. Is love more important to a lasting marriage than economic compatibility? To answer this question, the ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0104

Working Paper
Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997

Using the yield curve helps forecast real growth over the period 1875 to 1997. Using both the level and slope of the curve improves forecasts more than using either variable alone. Forecast performance changes over time and depends somewhat on whether recursive or rolling out of sample regressions are used.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0611

Working Paper
Prointegrative subsidies and their effect on housing markets: do race- based loans work?

An analysis of the effects of race-based housing subsidies on racial composition and housing prices, examining their impacts in Shaker Heights, Ohio.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9018

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