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Can vertical specialization explain the growth of world trade?
Yi, Kei-Mu
(2000)
The growth in the trade share of output is one of the most important features of the world economy since World War II. The growth is generally thought to have been generated by falling tariff barriers worldwide. This thinking, however, does not square with standard static and dynamic international trade models. Because tariff barriers have decreased little since the early 1960s, these models cannot explain the growth of trade without assuming counterfactually large elasticities of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. I show that this growth can be reconciled with the relatively ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 96
Report
GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix
Almuzara, Martín; Amengual, Dante; Fiorentini, Gabriele; Sentana, Enrique
(2022-08-01)
We exploit the information in the successive vintages of gross domestic expenditure (GDE) and gross domestic income (GDI) from the current comprehensive revision to obtain an improved, timely measure of U.S. aggregate output by exploiting cointegration between the different measures and taking their monthly release calendar seriously. We also combine all existing overlapping comprehensive revisions to achieve further improvements. We pay particular attention to the Great Recession and the pandemic, which, despite producing dramatic fluctuations, does not generate noticeable revisions in ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1027
Report
Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market
Rosenberg, Joshua V.; Traub, Leah G.
(2006)
In this paper, we compare price discovery in the foreign exchange futures and spot markets during a period in which the spot market was less transparent but had higher volume than the futures market. We develop a foreign exchange futures order flow measure that is a proxy for the order flow observed by Chicago Mercantile Exchange pit traders. We find that both foreign currency futures and spot order flow contain unique information relevant to exchange rate determination. When we measure contributions to price discovery using the methods of Hasbrouck and of Gonzalo and Granger, we obtain ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 262
Report
Spillovers and Spillbacks
Acharya, Sushant; Pesenti, Paolo
(2024-03-01)
We study international monetary policy spillovers and spillbacks in a tractable two-country Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. Relative to Representative Agent (RANK) models, our framework introduces a precautionary-savings channel, as households in both countries face uninsurable income risk, and a real-income channel, as households have heterogeneous marginal propensities to consume (MPC). While both channels amplify the size of spillovers/spillbacks, only precautionary savings can change their sign relative to RANK. Spillovers are likely to be larger in economies with higher ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1089
Report
Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis
Eusepi, Stefano
(2005-01-01)
This paper examines the performance of forecast-based nonlinear Taylor rules in a class of simple microfunded models. The paper shows that even if the policy rule leads to a locally determinate (and stable) inflation target, there exist other learnable "global" equilibria such as cycles and sunspots. Moreover, under learning dynamics, the economy can fall into a liquidity trap. By contrast, more backward-looking and "active" Taylor rules guarantee that the unique learnable equilibrium is the inflation target. This result is robust to different specifications of the role of money, price ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 198
Report
The risk of fire sales in the tri-party repo market
McAndrews, James J.; Martin, Antoine; McLaughlin, Susan; Begalle, Brian
(2013-05-01)
This paper studies the risk of "fire sales" in the tri-party repo market, a large and important market where securities dealers find short-term funding for a substantial portion of their own and their clients' assets. We distinguish between fire sales of assets by a dealer who, facing a run that could lead to default, sells securities to generate liquidity, and fire sales of assets by repo investors after a dealer's default has occurred. While fire sales do cause damage no matter how they arise, the tools available to lessen the harm from the two types of fire sales are different. We find ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 616
Report
Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK
Dogra, Keshav; Challe, Edouard; Acharya, Sushant
(2020-02-01)
We study optimal monetary policy in a heterogeneous agent new Keynesian economy. A utilitarian planner seeks to reduce consumption inequality, in addition to stabilizing output gaps and inflation. The planner does so both by reducing income risk faced by households, and by reducing the pass-through from income to consumption risk, trading off the benefits of lower inequality against productive inefficiency and higher inflation. When income risk is countercyclical, policy curtails the fall in output in recessions to mitigate the increase in inequality. We uncover a new form of time ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 916
Report
Two-sided markets and intertemporal trade clustering: insights into trading motives
Sarkar, Asani; Schwartz, Robert A.
(2006)
We show that equity markets are typically two-sided and that trades cluster in certain trading intervals for both NYSE and Nasdaq stocks under a broad range of conditions-news and non-news days, different times of the day, and a spectrum of trade sizes. By "two-sided" we mean that the arrivals of buyer-initiated and seller-initiated trades are positively correlated; by "trade clustering" we mean that trades tend to bunch together in time with greater frequency than would be expected if their arrival were a random process. Controlling for order imbalance, number of trades, news, and ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 246
Report
Productivity spillovers, terms of trade, and the "home market effect"
Pesenti, Paolo; Corsetti, Giancarlo; Martin, Philippe
(2005-02-01)
This paper analyzes the welfare implications of international spillovers related to productivity gains, changes in market size, or government spending. We introduce trade costs and endogenous varieties in a two-country general-equilibrium model with monopolistic competition, drawing a distinction between productivity gains from manufacturing efficiency and those related to firms' lower cost of entry or product differentiation. Our model suggests that countries with lower manufacturing costs have higher GDP but supply a smaller number of goods at a lower international price. Countries with ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 201
Report
Grown-up business cycles
Sahin, Aysegul; Pugsley, Benjamin
(2014-12-01)
We document two striking facts about U.S. firm dynamics and interpret their significance for employment dynamics. The first is the dramatic decline in firm entry and the second is the gradual shift of employment toward older firms since 1980. We show that despite these trends, the lifecycle dynamics of firms and their business cycle properties have remained virtually unchanged. Consequently, aging is the delayed effect of accumulating startup deficits. Together, the decline in the employment contribution of startups and the shift of employment toward more mature firms contributed to the ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 707
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FILTER BY Keywords
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monetary policy 51 items
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liquidity 32 items
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Banks and banking, Central 25 items
Business cycles 25 items
COVID-19 24 items
financial stability 24 items
Risk 23 items
Financial crises 22 items
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time series analysis 22 items
inflation 20 items
Credit 19 items
Intermediation (Finance) 19 items
Stock - Prices 19 items
systemic risk 19 items
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Wages 17 items
banks 17 items
financial intermediation 16 items
International finance 15 items
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financial crisis 14 items
regulation 14 items
Equilibrium (Economics) 13 items
Bank capital 12 items
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DSGE models 12 items
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exchange rates 11 items
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Consumption (Economics) 10 items
Financial markets 10 items
Stochastic analysis 10 items
Treasury bonds 10 items
expectations 10 items
financial frictions 10 items
heterogeneity 10 items
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asset pricing 9 items
business cycles 9 items
interest rates 9 items
money market funds 9 items
repo 9 items
uncertainty 9 items
unemployment 9 items
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banking 8 items
college majors 8 items
financial crises 8 items
inequality 8 items
inflation expectations 8 items
options 8 items
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runs 8 items
school finance 8 items
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corporate bonds 7 items
firm dynamics 7 items
forward guidance 7 items
human capital 7 items
leverage 7 items
money markets 7 items
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search 7 items
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term structures 7 items
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asymmetric information 6 items
capital flows 6 items
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employment 6 items
federal funds market 6 items
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global banks 6 items
household debt 6 items
imperfect information 6 items
information 6 items
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learning 6 items
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monetary policy transmission 6 items
mortgage 6 items
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recession 6 items
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asset prices 5 items
bank capital 5 items
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climate change 5 items
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Friedman, Milton 4 items
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bank 4 items
bank supervision 4 items
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clustering 4 items
cointegration 4 items
consumer finance 4 items
convenience yields 4 items
debt 4 items
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incomplete markets 4 items
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liquidity regulations 4 items
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marginal propensity to consume 4 items
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measurement 4 items
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networks 4 items
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pass-through entities 4 items
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stigma 4 items
supply chains 4 items
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trade 4 items
transmission 4 items
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agency mortgage-backed securities 3 items
automobiles 3 items
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credit 3 items
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dollar 3 items
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factor models 3 items
fed funds 3 items
financial architecture 3 items
financial constraints 3 items
financial intermediaries 3 items
financial markets 3 items
financial spillovers 3 items
fire sales 3 items
fiscal policy 3 items
heteroskedasticity 3 items
high-frequency data 3 items
house prices 3 items
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household surveys 3 items
housing 3 items
incentives 3 items
interbank 3 items
intermediation 3 items
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job search 3 items
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lenders of last resort 3 items
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liquidity provision 3 items
liquidity risk 3 items
liquidity shocks 3 items
local projections 3 items
market liquidity 3 items
merit aid 3 items
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moral hazard 3 items
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nominal rigidities 3 items
nonbank financial institutions 3 items
occasionally binding constraints 3 items
occupations 3 items
on-the-job search 3 items
open market operations 3 items
optimal monetary policy 3 items
option pricing 3 items
postsecondary education 3 items
prepayment 3 items
prices 3 items
professional traders 3 items
quantitative tightening 3 items
rational inattention 3 items
regulatory arbitrage 3 items
repo market 3 items
repurchase agreements 3 items
risk premia 3 items
risk taking 3 items
safe haven 3 items
securities lending 3 items
term premiums 3 items
trade finance 3 items
unemployment insurance 3 items
uniform inference 3 items
variance risk premium 3 items
variance swaps 3 items
volatility risk 3 items
zero lower bound (ZLB) 3 items
Abbott Districts 2 items
Affordable Care Act 2 items
Arbitrage 2 items
Automobiles - Prices 2 items
Balance of payments 2 items
Bank employees 2 items
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Banks and banking - Service charges 2 items
Bayesian methods 2 items
Bayesian model averaging 2 items
Bayesian vector autoregressions 2 items
Branch banks 2 items
Budget deficits 2 items
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CARES Act 2 items
COVID-19 pandemic 2 items
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Emigration and immigration 2 items
Euro 2 items
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FAVAR 2 items
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Fed 2 items
Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, Enforcement Act of 1989 2 items
Financial services industry 2 items
Financial stability 2 items
Flow of funds 2 items
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Freddie Mac 2 items
GDP 2 items
Game theory 2 items
Great Britain 2 items
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Hedge funds 2 items
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Industrial location 2 items
Inflation risk 2 items
Interest 2 items
Japan 2 items
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Labor supply 2 items
Latin America 2 items
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Over-the-counter markets 2 items
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Social security 2 items
Statistical methods 2 items
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Stock options 2 items
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Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) 2 items
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