Search Results
Journal Article
Monetary Policy Implementation with Ample Reserves
Chien, YiLi; Stewart, Ashley
(2025-05-22)
The Federal Reserve currently implements its interest rate policy under a framework known as the floor system. In order for the floor system to operate smoothly, there must be sufficient liquidity in the federal funds market. The ongoing goal of quantitative tightening (QT) is to reach the minimal level of market liquidity required to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively, also known as an ample reserves regime. We briefly discuss changes in the monetary policy framework from the previous corridor system to today’s floor system as well as the circumstances that brought them ...
Review
, Volume 107
, Issue 8
, Pages 1-11
Journal Article
A Journal Ranking Based on Central Bank Citations
Zimmermann, Christian; Cornelli, Giulio; Auer, Raphael
(2025-07-03)
We present a ranking of journals geared toward measuring the policy relevance of research. We compute simple impact factors that count only citations made in central bank publications. Our baseline ranking focuses on the period 2014-2023 and examines all items published in the Research Papers in Economics (RePEc) database. This ranking confirms the high policy relevance of journals specializing in macro, monetary, and international economics. Also, the major general interest economic journals are represented reasonably well in this ranking. In contrast, the major finance journals fare ...
Review
, Volume 107
, Issue 9
, Pages 1-14
Journal Article
Optimal Monetary Policy for the Masses
DiCecio, Riccardo; Bullard, James B.
(2025-07-17)
We study nominal GDP targeting as optimal monetary policy in a simple and stylized model with a credit market friction. The macroeconomy we study has considerable income inequality, which gives rise to a large private sector credit market. This is an important credit market friction because households participating in the credit market use non-state-contingent nominal contracts (NSCNC). We extend previous results in this model by allowing for substantial intra-cohort heterogeneity, which is substantial enough that we can approach measured Gini coefficients for income, financial wealth, and ...
Review
, Volume 107
, Issue 10
Journal Article
Continuity and Change in the Federal Reserve's Perspective on Price Stability
Markowitz, Emily J.; López-Salido, J. David; Nelson, Edward
(2025-08-06)
We examined statements made by Federal Reserve leadership since the early 1950s and established there has been considerable continuity in policymakers’ perceptions of the benefits of price stability. Policymakers have consistently contended that deviations from price stability give rise to greater cyclical instability, and they have also frequently suggested that potential output is significantly lowered by inflation. The recurrent support for price stability that comes through in these statements implies that it is invalid to interpret deviations from price stability in the U.S. economy as ...
Review
, Volume 107
, Issue 11
, Pages 1-30
Journal Article
Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy
de Soyres, Francois; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Richards, Keith; Airaudo, Florencia S.
(2025-09-03)
Recent geopolitical tensions have revived interest in understanding the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation. Using bilateral trade flows, portfolio investment data, and detailed records of economic policy interventions, we revisit widely used geopolitical distance metrics, specifically the ideal point distance (IPD) derived from United Nations General Assembly voting. We document substantial variability in measured fragmentation, driven significantly by methodological choices related to sample periods and vote categories, especially in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of ...
Review
, Volume 107
, Issue 12
, Pages 1-30
Journal Article
The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective
Cole, Anna; Kozlowski, Julian; Martorana, Joseph
(2025-09-19)
This article analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. By examining the mean, volatility, and skewness of these distributions, we document how expectations have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the reliability of market-based measures, we compare our results with alternative data sources. We highlight the ...
Review
, Volume 107
, Issue 13
, Pages 1-14
Journal Article
Heterogeneity in Work from Home: Evidence from Six U.S. Datasets
Bick, Alexander; Caplan, Aidan; Blandin, Adam; Caplan, Tristan
(2025-10-02)
This article documents heterogeneity in work from home (WFH) using six nationally representative U.S. surveys. These surveys show consistent patterns indicating that pre-pandemic differences in WFH rates by sex, education, and state of residence expanded following the COVID-19 outbreak. The surveys also show similar post-pandemic trends in WFH by firm size and industry. We find that an industry’s WFH potential was highly correlated with actual WFH during the first year or two of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this correlation was much weaker before and after, suggesting that WFH potential ...
Review
, Volume 107
, Issue 14
, Pages 1-23
Journal Article
Measuring Trends in Work from Home: Evidence from Six U.S. Datasets
Bick, Alexander; Caplan, Aidan; Blandin, Adam; Caplan, Tristan
(2025-10-02)
This article documents the prevalence of work from home (WFH) using six nationally representative U.S. surveys. These surveys measure WFH using different questions, reference periods, samples, and survey collection methods. After constructing comparable samples and WFH measures across surveys, we find that the surveys show broadly similar trends in the trajectory of aggregate WFH since the COVID-19 outbreak. The most important source of disagreement in WFH levels across surveys is in WFH by self-employed workers; by contrast, WFH rates for employees are closely aligned across surveys. All ...
Review
, Volume 107
, Issue 15
, Pages 1-23
Journal Article
Real-Time Discovery of Corporate Risks
Kalyani, Aakash; Bass, Mickenzie
(2025-10-07)
We propose a new methodology to discover emerging corporate risks in real time by analyzing the text of quarterly earnings conference calls from 2008 to 2025. Our approach identifies bigrams (two-word phrases) within risk-related sentences whose usage surges significantly and then groups them into thematic topics. The method successfully recovers a timeline of major economic events, from the credit crisis in 2008 to macroeconomic and tariff uncertainty in 2025. We find that firms manage these risks differently. While macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with reductions in investment and ...
Review
, Volume 107
, Issue 16
, Pages 1-17
Journal Article
The Distributional Effects of Bailouts
Chiang, Yu-Ting; Sukiasyan, Mikayel; Żoch, Piotr
(2025-11-06)
This article examines the distributional effects of government bailouts using a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model with financial intermediation frictions. We analyze government equity injections to financial institutions financed by debt issuance, capturing essential features of bailout policies during financial crises. When calibrated to match key features of the U.S. economy, bailout policies are expansionary and reduce inequality through general equilibrium effects operating primarily via aggregate demand stimulation and increased labor income rather than direct wealth effects. ...
Review
, Volume 107
, Issue 17
, Pages 1-10
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