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Discussion Paper
Firms and Artificial Intelligence: A Regional Update
Kosakow, Jason; Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath (2020-60-20)
Similar to past technological developments, the productivity implications, labor market implications, and thus economic implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will evolve over time. A lot depends on who is using AI tools, when they are using them, and how they are using them.In the Richmond Fed's December business surveys — which were fielded between Dec. 1 and Dec. 17 — we asked firms if they have adopted AI and if so, how they were using it. Businesses reported that they were increasingly providing employees with access to AI tools to complete tasks but were less likely to have ...
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
Intersecting Costs: Housing and Transportation in the Rural Fifth District
Latham, Sierra (2022-05-05)
Our recent issue of Econ Focus covered a number of challenges facing small towns and rural areas, including the need for affordable, quality housing for low- and middle-income households. Despite typically lower housing costs in rural areas compared to urban areas, nearly four out of 10 low- and middle-income households in the rural Fifth District are housing cost burdened, meaning they spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing.Yet, access to housing is only part of the bigger story of households’ access to jobs, services, and amenities. Transportation also looms large. Housing ...
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
Impacts of Tariffs on Rural Businesses: Insights from Our Business Surveys
Kosakow, Jason (2025-04-03)
As a part of the Richmond Fed's March business surveys, we asked firms how tariff policies might affect their business. Additionally, we asked responding businesses to indicate their geographic footprint: urban, suburban, small town, and/or rural. We were particularly interested in understanding how rural-operating businesses expect to be impacted by tariff policies compared to their urban counterparts. In our analysis, we consider rural-only businesses to operate only in rural areas or small towns. We consider urban-only businesses to operate only in cities or suburban areas.We find that ...
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
High and Dry: Banking Deserts Increased in the Fifth District During the Pandemic
Carpenter, Surekha; Dureja, Disha; Pradhan, Avani (2024-08-22)
The number of U.S. bank branches has been shrinking for years, but the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the rate of closures. After the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994 allowed banks to open branches across state lines, branch networks spread steadily across the country. That expansion continued until the Great Recession, after which banks moved from growing their physical footprints to increasing their automated services, like ATMs and online banking.
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
What Might Cuts in Federal Government Spending Mean for the Fifth District?
Norris, Stephanie; Pinto, Santiago; Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath (2025-03-21)
In a previous post, we examined the concentration of the federal government workforce in the Fifth Federal Reserve District — a region that includes the government-concentrated District of Columbia and surrounding areas in Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. However, workforce concentration is just one aspect of federal government spending in our district. Virginia and Maryland, for example, have consistently been among the top recipients of federal contract dollars. To understand the extent to which the Fifth District relies on the federal government requires examining not only the ...
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
COVID-19: Unemployment Claims and Unemployment in Virginia
Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath (2020-04-13)
Over the course of three weeks (from March 15 to April 4), more than 360,000 Virginians filed for unemployment. What does this mean for other employment measures and where might we see Virginia's unemployment rate go?
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
Are Fifth District Firms Revisiting Their Prices Less Often Amid Cooling Inflation?
Kosakow, Jason; Scavette, Adam (2024-02-02)
The Richmond Fed's monthly business surveys of Fifth District firms gauge regional firm dynamics in pricing. We carefully monitor changes in firms' realized prices as well as their pricing expectations, especially since inflation began to accelerate in 2021 and 2022. Early last year, we examined how firms began to adjust their prices more frequently as firms' price forecasts became less accurate and uncertainty rose, as evidenced by a rising standard deviation of price growth expectations.
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
What Do Softened Business Expectations Mean for Hiring?
Edwards, Zach (2023-11-28)
n October, we saw a downturn in our Fifth District indexes for expected demand and business conditions over the next six months, especially in the service sector. Employment expectations over the same period, however, remained largely unchanged. This month, firms' six-month expectations for demand and business conditions remained soft, and near-term employment expectations remained steady.Every November, we ask firms for their employment outlook over a longer time horizon: the next 12 months. Longer-run employment expectations also appeared to remain positive. Compared to last year, a similar ...
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
Demand Is Up, But Can Supply Match It?
Crouse, Jacob; Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath (2021-05-03)
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
Results From the Survey of Community College Outcomes Extended Pilot
Kosakow, Jason; Ullrich, Laura Dawson; Walker, Jacob (2023-11-17)
After three years of developing partnerships with community colleges across the Fifth District, we are proud to release our first-year results from our extended pilot of the Survey of Community College Outcomes.When the Richmond Fed launched this initiative, the most common question we heard from community colleges was, "Why does the Richmond Fed care about community colleges?" The answer is that the Richmond Fed cares about workforce development, and community colleges play a vital role across the Fifth District providing individuals with the skills needed to participate in the workforce.
Regional Matters

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