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Series:Quarterly Review 

Journal Article
Recent U.S. export performance in the developing world

U.S. exports to developing countries have grown remarkably in recent years, far outpacing our sales increases to the industrial world. The author seeks explanations for this strong performance in the traditional determinants of export growthrelative prices and income growthand in other factors linking world economic conditions to developing country demand for U.S. goods.
Quarterly Review , Volume 17 , Issue Win , Pages 64-74

Journal Article
How the U.S. Treasury should auction its debt

The U.S. Treasury could raise more revenue if it changed the way it auctions its debt. Under the current procedure, all bidders whose competitive bids for Treasury securities are accepted pay the prices they bid; different winning bidders, that is, pay different prices. Instead, economic theory says, all winning bidders should all pay the same price?that of the highest bid not accepted, or the price that just clears the market. This procedural change would increase the revenue that Treasury auctions raise primarily because it would decrease the amount of resources that bidders would spend ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Fall , Pages 3-12

Journal Article
Evolution of U.S. trade with China

Despite the improvements in the overall U.S. trade balance in the latter half of the 1980s, the U.S. trade deficit with China has widened significantly. This article investigates the factors underlying this growing deficit and analyzes how growth in imports from China has affected the pattern of U.S. imports from other Asian economies, notably Hong Kong.
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Win , Pages 47-54

Journal Article
Analyzing a proposal to ban state tax breaks to businesses

This article asks whether or not the overall welfare of U.S. residents would be greater if U.S. federal law prohibited state governments from offering tax breaks to particular businesses. The answer of a formal model is yes, making such tax breaks illegal could increase a summary measure of total welfare in the economy. According to the model, the policy could increase welfare because it would increase the tax revenue collected from capital agents, and that revenue could finance an increase in spending on public goods. The policy would also spread the tax burden more evenly in the economy and ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 19 , Issue Spr , Pages 29-39

Journal Article
Vector autoregression evidence on monetarism: another look at the robustness debate

This paper is a case study of the use of vector autoregression (VAR) models to test economic theories. It focuses on the work of Christopher A. Sims, who in 1980 found that relationships in economic data generated by a small VAR model were inconsistent with those implied by a simple form of monetarist theory. The paper describes the work of researchers who criticized Sims' results as not robust and Sims' response to these critics. The paper reexamines all of this work by estimating hundreds of variations of Sims' model. The paper concludes that both Sims and his critics are right: Sims' ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 14 , Issue Spr , Pages 19-37

Journal Article
Some skeptical observations on real business cycle theory

Quarterly Review , Volume 10 , Issue Fall , Pages 23-27

Journal Article
The international transmission of stock prices disruption in October 1987

Quarterly Review , Volume 13 , Issue Sum , Pages 17-33

Journal Article
Resolving the national bank note paradox

During the 1882_1914 period, U.S. national banks could issue circulating notes backed by specified government securities. Earlier attempts to explain yields on those securities by costs of note issue discovered a paradox: yields were too high. We point out two previously ignored sources of costs: idle notes and note redemptions that were highly variable, thereby exacerbating the problem of managing reserves. We present data on idle notes and estimate, from partial data on redemptions, the uncertainty due to redemptions. We also present a semiannual time series of an upper bound on the average ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Spr , Pages 13-21

Journal Article
Japan's growth performance over the last decade

Quarterly Review , Volume 12 , Issue Sum , Pages 45-55

Journal Article
Probable future competition in banking antitrust determination: research findings

Quarterly Review , Volume 8 , Issue Sum

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