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Series:Liberty Street Economics 

Discussion Paper
Who’s Paying Those Overdraft Fees?
Morgan, Donald P.; Leonard, Gabriel; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2025-05-28)
One criticism of overdraft credit is that the fees seem borne disproportionately by low-income, Black, and Hispanic households. To investigate this concern, we surveyed around 1,000 households about their overdraft activity. Like critics, we find that these groups do tend to overdraft more often. However, when we control for respondents’ credit scores along with their socioeconomic characteristics, we discover that only their credit score predicts overdraft activity. While it’s not altogether surprising that credit constrained households overdrew more often, it’s noteworthy that ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250528

Discussion Paper
How Uncertain Is the Estimated Probability of a Future Recession?
Gospodinov, Nikolay; Crump, Richard K. (2025-05-29)
Since World War II, the U.S. economy has experienced twelve recessions—one every sixty-four months, on average. Though infrequent, these contractions can cause considerable pain and disruption, with the unemployment rate rising by at least 2.5 percentage points in each of the past four recessions. Given the consequences of an economic downturn, businesses and households are perennially interested in the near-term probability of a recession. In this post, we describe our research on a related issue: how much uncertainty is there around recession probability estimates from economic models?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250529

Discussion Paper
How Much Does Immigration Data Explain the Employment‑Gap Puzzle?
Xing, Roshie; Audoly, Richard (2025-06-02)
A puzzling feature of official U.S. employment statistics in recent years has been the increase in the gap between the nonfarm payroll and household employment numbers. This discrepancy is not trivial. From the end of 2021 though the end of 2024, net job gains in the payroll survey were 3.6 million larger than in the household survey. In this Liberty Street Economics post, we investigate one potential explanation for the emergence of this gap: a sharp rise in undocumented immigration during the post-COVID period that would be differentially reflected in the two surveys. We leverage ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250602

Discussion Paper
Are Businesses Absorbing the Tariffs or Passing Them On to Their Customers?
Heise, Sebastian; Montalbano, Nick; Deitz, Richard; Hyman, Benjamin; Abel, Jaison R. (2025-06-04)
U.S. import tariffs increased to historically high rates in recent months, raising the costs of many imported inputs businesses use. Businesses subject to these higher costs have been faced with difficult and complex decisions about whether to absorb the tariffs through lower profits, raise their prices to recover the higher costs, or some combination of both. These decisions are influenced by the degree of competition in the marketplace, potential customer reactions, and the ability to maintain profit margins, among other factors. Our May survey of businesses in the New York–Northern New ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250604

Discussion Paper
Reserves and Where to Find Them
Cipriani, Marco; Plosser, Matthew; Afonso, Gara; Martinez, JC (2025-06-23)
Banks use central bank reserves for a multitude of purposes including making payments, managing intraday liquidity outflows, and meeting regulatory and internal liquidity requirements. Data on aggregate reserves for the U.S. banking system are readily accessible, but information on the holdings of individual banks is confidential. This makes it difficult to investigate important questions like: “Which types of banks hold reserves?” “How concentrated are they?” and “Does the distribution change over time or in response to significant events?” In this post, we summarize how ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250623

Discussion Paper
Financial Intermediaries and the Changing Risk Sensitivity of Global Liquidity Flows
Avdjiev, Stefan; Goldberg, Linda S. (2025-06-26)
Global risk conditions, along with monetary policy in major advanced economies, have historically been major drivers of cross-border capital flows and the global financial cycle. So what happens to these flows when risk sentiment changes? In this post, we examine how the sensitivity to risk of global financial flows changed following the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that while the risk sensitivity of cross-border bank loans (CBL) was lower following the GFC, that of international debt securities (IDS) remained the same as before the GFC. Moreover, the changes in risk sensitivities ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250626

Discussion Paper
New Dataset Maps Losses from Natural Disasters to the County Level
Crosignani, Matteo; Hiti, Martin (2025-07-01)
The Federal Reserve’s mission and regional structure ask that it always work to better understand local and regional economic activity. This requires gauging the economic impact of localized events, including natural disasters. Despite the economic significance of natural disasters—flowing often from their human toll—there are currently no publicly available data on the damages they cause in the United States at the county level.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250701

Discussion Paper
The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium‑Term Risk
Mertens, Thomas M.; Cho, Sophia; Williams, John C. (2025-07-07)
Interest rates have fluctuated significantly over time. After a period of high inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s, interest rates entered a decline that lasted for nearly four decades. The federal funds rate—the primary tool for monetary policy in the United States—followed this trend, while also varying with cycles of economic recessions and expansions.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250707

Discussion Paper
The Fed’s Treasury Purchase Prices During the Pandemic
Krogh, Isabel; Younger, Josh; Correia Golay, Ellen; Johansson, Peter; Shachar, Or; Fleming, Michael J.; Dunn, Maximilian (2025-07-08)
In March 2020, the Federal Reserve commenced purchases of U.S. Treasury securities to address the market disruptions caused by the pandemic. This post assesses the execution quality of those purchases by comparing the Fed’s purchase prices to contemporaneous market prices. Although past work has considered this question in the context of earlier asset purchases, the market dysfunction spurred by the pandemic means that execution quality at that time may have differed. Indeed, we find that the Fed’s execution quality was unusually good in 2020 in that the Fed bought Treasuries at prices ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250708

Discussion Paper
The Rise in Deposit Flightiness and Its Implications for Financial Stability
Li, Jian; Blickle, Kristian S.; Lu, Xu; Ma, Yiming (2025-07-10)
Deposits are often perceived as a stable funding source for banks. However, the risk of deposits rapidly leaving banks—known as deposit flightiness—has come under increased scrutiny following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and other regional banks in March 2023. In a new paper, we show that deposit flightiness is not constant over time. In particular, flightiness reached historic highs after expansions in bank reserves associated with rounds of quantitative easing (QE). We argue that this elevated deposit flightiness may amplify the banking sector’s response to subsequent monetary ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250710

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