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Discussion Paper
A New Dataset of Macroprudential Policy Governance Structures
Governance structures are a critical part of a framework for implementing macroprudential policy, alongside methodologies for measuring and monitoring systemic risk, and analyses to understand the impact of policies that may be used to mitigate risk. As part of various research projects to study macroprudential policy frameworks, we have compiled a new dataset of governance structures in 58 countries. This note documents the construction of our dataset, including the decisions that we made concerning the countries and governance-structure facts to record in our dataset, and it discusses the ...
Discussion Paper
Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt : How Concerned Should We Be?
Nonfinancial corporate (NFC) debt in emerging market economies (EMEs) has tripled since the global financial crisis (GFC), reaching roughly $25 trillion, or 112 percent of GDP, in mid-2016. In this note, we assess corporate vulnerabilities by looking at two common metrics related to debt-servicing capacity: leverage (the ratio of debt to equity), and the interest coverage ratio (the ratio of earnings to interest expense).
Discussion Paper
Predicting Fed Forecasts
Monetary policy decisions by the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have attracted considerable attention in recent years, especially with quantitative easing through large-scale asset purchases, the introduction of forward guidance, and December's "lift-off" after seven years of a near-zero federal funds rate. The FOMC's decisions are based in part on the Greenbook forecasts, which are economic forecasts produced by the Federal Reserve Board's staff and which are presented to the FOMC prior to their policy meetings. This note shows that the minutes of the FOMC meetings--and the ...
Discussion Paper
Measuring Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Federal Reserve, January 1985-January 2016
In this note we focus on the U.S. over the period January 1985 to January 2016, but have also constructed measures over a longer time period and for other central banks/economies.