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Discussion Paper
How Do Liquidity Conditions Affect U.S. Bank Lending?
The recent financial crisis underscored the importance of understanding how liquidity conditions for banks (or other financial institutions) influence the banks' lending to domestic and foreign customers.
Discussion Paper
Emerging Market Capital Flows and U.S. Monetary Policy
Accordingly, in this note we analyze the drivers of EME capital flows, focusing in particular on the role of U.S. monetary policy and other potential factors in the decline in capital flows to EMEs since 2010.
Discussion Paper
Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?
The economic collapse in the wake of the global financial crises (GFC) and the weaker-than-expected recovery in many countries have led to questions about the impact of severe downturns on economic potential.
Discussion Paper
Recoveries and Trade : Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?
This note examines the connection between a country's exchange rate regime and the strength of its recovery from recessions.
Discussion Paper
The Sensitivity of the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate to Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations
This note summarizes recent work in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board on the relationship between movements in exchange rates and monetary policy expectations.
Discussion Paper
The Effect of Real Estate Prices on Chinese Bank Performance
This note examines how a major fall in real estate prices could affect banks' performances.
Discussion Paper
The Surprising Strength of U.S. Imports During the Recovery
Import and exports of goods and services, after rebounding sharply in the immediate post-recession period, have more recently returned to a pace of growth more in line with their pre-recession averages.
Discussion Paper
Milton Friedman and Data Adjustment
When empirically modelling the U.S. demand for money, Milton Friedman more than doubled the observed initial stock of money to account for a "changing degree of financial sophistication" in the United States relative to the United Kingdom. This note discusses effects of this adjustment on Friedman's empirical models. His data adjustment dramatically reduced apparent movements in the velocity of circulation of money, and it adversely affected the constancy and fit of his estimated money demand models.
Discussion Paper
BAT Signals from Asset Markets : Estimating the U.S. Dollar Response to a Destination-Based Cash-Flow Tax
In early 2017, there was substantial discussion about changing the U.S. corporate tax system to a destination-based cash-flow tax (DBCFT). The DBCFT proposal, also often referred to as a border-adjusted tax (BAT), would exclude exports from taxable revenues and exclude imports from allowable deductions.
Discussion Paper
Debt Statistics a la Carte : Alternative Recipes for Measuring Government Indebtedness
In this note, we apply our same measurement techniques to the debts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal and show that plausible alternative measures of indebtedness suggest that Greece is anywhere from as much as 50% more indebted, to as little as half as indebted as either Portugal or Ireland. We argue that most reasonable measures imply that Greece is far less indebted than is commonly reported, and that indebtedness levels across these three economies are roughly similar.