Search Results
Working Paper
Economic Diversity and the Resilience of Cities
de Soyres, Francois; Maghin, Helene; Kondo, Illenin O.; Fuchs, Simon
(2025-03-25)
We show how local worker flow adjustment margins yield a theory-consistent sufficient statistic approximating the welfare effects of local shocks. Furthermore, we isolate a city's insurance value as this approximation's second-order term. Leveraging rich labor flows data across occupations, industries, and cities in France, we estimate spatial and nonspatial flows responses to local labor demand shocks. Less economically diverse French cities experience deeper contractions in gross outflows following negative shocks. In contrast, more economic concentration begets a modestly larger increase ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2025-2
Working Paper
Bank Financing of Global Supply Chains
Alfaro, Laura; Presbitero, Andrea F.; Minoiu, Camelia; Brussevich, Mariya
(2025-05-19)
Finding new international suppliers is costly, so most importers source inputs from a single country. We examine the role of banks in mitigating trade search costs during the 2018–19 US-China trade tensions. We match data on shipments to US ports with the US credit register to analyze trade and bank credit relationships at the bank-firm level. We show that importers of tariff-hit products from China were more likely to exit relationships with Chinese suppliers and find new suppliers in other Asian countries. To finance their geographic diversification, tariff-hit firms increased credit ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2025-4
Working Paper
Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks
Schneider, Andrés; Minoiu, Camelia; Wei, Min
(2025-07-01)
We show that the slope of the yield curve affects bank lending and economic activity through an "expected bank profitability channel." Using detailed banking data and term premium shocks identified via instrumental variables or event studies, we show that a steeper yield curve—when driven by higher term premiums rather than higher expected short rates—increases bank profits and loan supply. Intuitively, a higher term premium raises the expected returns from maturity transformation—a core banking activity—thereby incentivizing bank lending. This effect is more pronounced for banks with ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2025-5
Working Paper
The Effect of Unemployment Insurance Eligibility in Equilibrium
Griffy, Benjamin; Chao, Ying; Wiczer, David
(2025-07-14)
In the United States, workers whose past earnings were below a threshold are generally ineligible for unemployment insurance (UI), creating a discontinuous jump in the value of being unemployed. Using a regression discontinuity design with administrative panel data, we estimate a sizable local effect from UI eligibility on earnings in the next employer, around 10 percent per quarter. This evidence, however, understates UI’s causal effect because of endogenous non-compliance. It also does not distinguish between underlying reasons for higher re-employment earnings, a higher share of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2025-6
Working Paper
Firm-Level Input Price Changes and Their Effects: A Deep Learning Approach
Mitra, Indrajit; Chava, Sudheer; Du, Wendi; Zeng, Linghang; Shah, Agam
(2025-08-19)
We develop firm-level measures of input and output price changes using textual analysis of earnings calls. We establish five facts: (1) Input prices increase (decrease) at the median firm once every seven (30) months. (2) Input price changes contain an equal blend of aggregate and firm-specific components. (3) A firm's stock price experiences a –1.15 percent return when our input price change measure is in the top tercile of price increases. (4) Our input price change measure predicts future changes in the cost of goods sold. (5) Firms pass through input price changes to output prices in ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2025-7
Working Paper
Patents to Products: Product Innovation and Firm Dynamics
Argente, David; Moreira, Sara; Hanley, Douglas; Baslandze, Salomé
(2020-04-17)
We combine NielsenIQ scanner data with USPTO patent records and apply natural language processing to match detailed product descriptions to patent texts for the consumer goods sector. We show that while more than half of product innovations originate from non-patenting firms, patent filings are on average followed by subsequent product introductions. Yet this relationship weakens with firm size. Patents held by market leaders also yield revenue premiums beyond what can be explained by their own product introductions and are associated with stronger deterrence of competitors’ innovations. To ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2020-4a
Working Paper
The Price of Delay: Supply Chain Disruptions and Pricing Dynamics
Fuchs, Simon; Baslandze, Salomé
(2025-09-24)
We study the role of supply chain disruptions in shaping consumer prices, focusing on both firms' own import shocks and strategic responses to competitors' disruptions. Using a newly constructed microlevel dataset that links transaction-level US import data from bills of lading with high-frequency consumer prices and sales from a consumer panel, we develop a novel approach to estimate the price effects of cost shocks and product availability. Motivated by a model of delivery delays, cost shocks, and firm pricing, we implement a shift-share identification strategy based on delivery shortfalls, ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2025-8
Working Paper
A Uniformly Valid Test for Instrument Exogeneity
Gospodinov, Nikolay; Dovonon, Prosper
(2025-09-25)
This paper studies the limiting behavior of the test for instrument exogeneity in linear models when there is uncertainty about the strength of the identification signal. We consider the test for conditional moment restrictions with an expanding set of constructed instruments. We establish the uniform validity of the standard normal asymptotic approximation, under the null, of this specification test over all possible degrees of model identification. As a result, this allows the researcher to use standard inference for testing instrument exogeneity without the need of any prior knowledge if ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2025-9
Working Paper
Assessing the Role of Global Demand and Supply Shocks in the Recent US Inflation Experience Using a Cross-Country Panel Dataset of Professional Forecasts
Higgins, Patrick C.
(2025-10-06)
Although there have been a range of studies investigating the role and importance of global supply and demand shocks in US inflation developments during and since the pandemic, this study uses a heretofore unused dataset for this purpose: a quarterly panel of professional forecasts from Consensus Economics. We use real-time data with daily vintage snapshots since 2005 from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors FAME database to disentangle forecast errors from revisions and to exploit the monthly frequency and partial availability of CPI inflation and industrial production. Our measures of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2025-10
Working Paper
From Skills to Occupations: Comparative Advantage and Cross-Country Income Differences
Gottlieb, Charles; Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Grobovsek, Jan
(2025-10-08)
We revisit the role of human capital in cross-country income differences. We develop a general equilibrium model where workers of different skill groups sort into occupations by comparative advantage. Wages and employment depend on workers' skill quality, occupation-specific country-embedded productivity, and occupational distortions. Using harmonized microdata for 50 countries, we infer these components from the model's equilibrium conditions. Workers in rich countries exhibit higher skill quality and substantially greater productivity, especially in white-collar occupations. Human capital ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2025-11
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