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Discussion Paper
Nonlinear Phillips Curves
Smith, Simon C.; Timmermann, Allan; Wright, Jonathan H. (2024-09-04)
The slope of the Phillips curve flattened around the turn of the century. The slope, however, is also kinked (nonlinear) such that it is steeper in a tight labor market than in a more normal one. The magnitude of this kink means that the flattening of the Phillips curve around the turn of the century has not changed much the slope in a tight labor market. This holds for both price and wage Phillips curves and for both the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). Our findings are relevant to policy debates about the costs and benefits of a running a hot labor market. Monetary ...
FEDS Notes , Paper 2024-09-04-1

Discussion Paper
Private Credit: Characteristics and Risks
Cai, Fang; Haque, Sharjil M. (2024-02-23)
Private credit or private debt investments are debt-like, non-publicly traded instruments provided by non-bank entities, such as private credit funds or business development companies (BDCs), to fund private businesses. Private credit is typically extended to middle-market firms with annual revenues between $10 million and $1 billion, but has grown rapidly in recent years to fund larger companies that were traditionally funded by leveraged loans.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2024-02-23-2

Discussion Paper
Internationalization of the Chinese renminbi: progress and outlook
von Beschwitz, Bastian (2024-08-30)
The international role of the Chinese renminbi has received increased attention recently as Chinese authorities push for increased international usage of the renminbi and Western sanctions on Russia potentially increase renminbi attractiveness. Some newspaper article headlines even imply that the renminbi is about to rival the U.S. dollar as the world's dominant international currency.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2024-08-30-3

Discussion Paper
Are Rising U.S. Interest Rates Destabilizing for Emerging Market Economies?
Hoek, Jasper; Kamin, Steven B.; Yoldas, Emre (2021-06-23)
Rising U.S. interest rates are often thought to be bad news for emerging market economies (EMEs) as they increase debt burdens, trigger capital outflows, and generally cause a tightening of financial conditions that can lead to financial crises. Indeed, as shown in Figure 1 below, the rise in the federal funds rate (the black line) during the Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s was associated with a sharp rise in the incidence of financial crises in EMEs (the green bars).
FEDS Notes , Paper 2021-06-23-2

Discussion Paper
Measuring AI Uptake in the Workplace
Crane, Leland D.; Green, Michael; Soto, Paul E. (2025-02-05)
Artificial Intelligence (AI) may be poised to raise productivity across various domains, including writing (Noy and Zhang 2023), programming (Peng et al. 2023), and research and development (Toner-Rodgers 2024; Korinek 2023). However, understanding the extent to which AI—and generative AI in particular—has been adopted as part of the production process remains an open question. This note reviews the extant surveys on AI adoption at both the employee and firm levels. Surveys of firms show a wide spread of adoption rates, ranging from 5 percent to about 40 percent. Surveys of workers show ...
FEDS Notes , Paper 2025-02-05

Discussion Paper
Understanding Changes in Household Debt by Credit Risk Category: The Role of Credit Score Transitions
Goodman, Sarena; Ramos, Steve (2019-06-25)
This note analyzes the individual credit records from the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax (CCP) to better understand the extent to which the migration of borrowers between risk categories has contributed to recent evolutions in debt balances by category, focusing on changes during the past few years.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2019-06-25

Discussion Paper
Comparing Means of Payment: What Role for a Central Bank Digital Currency?
Wong, Paul; Maniff, Jesse Leigh (2020-08-13)
This paper looks at the potential benefit that a central bank digital currency (CBDC) could provide in the context of existing payment mechanisms. Central banks today provide the primary payment mechanisms for trade and commerce: cash, used by the public, and electronic payment services, used by eligible financial institutions.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-08-13-2

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