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Journal Article
A new approach to gauging inflation expectations
Haubrich, Joseph G. (2009-08)
This Economic Commentary explains a relatively new method of uncovering inflation expectations, real interest rates, and an inflation-risk premium. It provides estimates of expected inflation from one month to 30 years, an estimate of the inflation-risk premium, and a measure of real interest rates, particularly a short (one-month) rate, which is not readily available from the TIPS market. Calculations using the method suggest that longer-term inflation expectations remain near historic lows. Furthermore, the inflation-risk premium is also low, which in the model means that inflation is not ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2009 , Issue Aug , Pages 4

Journal Article
What constitutes substantial employment gains in today’s labor market?
Tasci, Murat; Schweitzer, Mark E. (2013-06)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has tied its asset purchases to a ?substantial improvement? in labor market conditions. While we don?t speculate on what the FOMC means by substantial improvement, we do explore the level of monthly job gains that would gradually deliver the underlying trend unemployment rate within a reasonable timeframe, under several plausible scenarios. We find that the path of monthly job gains, which is highly dependent on a few key parameters, is likely to be smaller than the path associated with previous recoveries.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Manufacturing or Degree-Intensive Labor Markets: Where Do the Children of Non-College Graduates Earn More Degrees?
Whitaker, Stephan (2016-10-16)
Manufacturing employment has declined since the 1970s, while the number of jobs requiring a college degree has risen. The shift has reshaped the environment in which many young people grow up and pursue their educations, potentially affecting the level of education they attain. This analysis uses the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth to investigate the relationship between industrial composition and the educational attainment of children whose parents have only a high school education or less. The results show that the educational attainment of these youths is correlated with their ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2016 , Issue 12 , Pages 6

Journal Article
An option for anticipating Fed action
Carlson, John B.; Sahinoz, Erkin Y.; Melick, William R. (2003-09)
Options contracts on federal funds futures, a new financial instrument introduced earlier this year, can be analyzed to gauge public expectations of future Fed actions. The real bonus is that they can detect differences of opinion when markets see more than two possible outcomes for an FOMC meeting as well as the likelihood associated with each.
Economic Commentary , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Raising the deposit-insurance limit: a bad idea whose time has come?
Thomson, James B. (2000-04)
Federal deposit insurance protects the savings of small depositors, but it increases the likelihood that banks will take risks they otherwise would not have. Some bankers have suggested doubling the level of coverage to $200,000. While such an increase may put smaller banks on a par with larger ones, it exceeds the amount necessary to protect small savers and is unfair to taxpayers.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Journal Article
A perspective on monetary policy
Pianalto, Sandra (2004-05)
Sandra Pianalto is the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. This Commentary contains the text of her remarks to the Forecaster?s Club of New York on April 22, 2004.
Economic Commentary , Issue May

Journal Article
Measuring Deaths from COVID-19
Aliprantis, Dionissi; Tauber, Kristen (2020-07-08)
Medical data are new to the analyses and deliberations of Federal Reserve monetary policymakers, but such data are now of primary importance to policymakers who need to understand the virus’s trajectory to assess economic conditions and address the virus’s impacts on the economy. The number of deaths caused by COVID-19 is one key metric that is often referred to, but as with other COVID metrics, it is a challenge to measure accurately. We discuss the issues involved in measuring COVID-19 deaths and argue that the change in the number of directly observed COVID-19 deaths is the most ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 18 , Pages 7

Journal Article
Arbitrage: the key to pricing options
Wang, Tan; Nosal, Ed (2004-01)
Arbitrage has become associated in popular attitudes with the most ruthless and profit-driven of human impulses, but the opposite reputation might be more well-deserved. The ability to arbitrage is essential for the efficient operation of markets. An interesting application of the principle of arbitrage arose when it provided the breakthrough insight in economists? solution to a formerly intractable problem: how to properly price the emergent financial instruments known as options.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jan

Journal Article
Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2019 Conference Summary
Schoenle, Raphael; Wiederholt, Mirko; Blanco, Andres; Zhang, Tony; Tielens, Joris; Paustian, Matthias; Kim, Mina; Ryngaert, Jane; Knotek, Edward S.; Weber, Michael; Rich, Robert W. (2019-12-19)
To provide insights into the processes that drive inflationary dynamics, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holdsan annual conference on the topic of inflation: “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics.” This Commentary summarizes thepapers presented at the 2019 conference.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2019 , Issue 22 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Rethinking the welfare cost of inflation
Rocheteau, Guillaume; Craig, Ben R. (2005-03)
New models of monetary economies, developed in the last 15 years, suggest that traditional measures of the welfare cost of inflation may underestimate the true loss that inflation inflicts on society. According to these models, the cost of 10 percent inflation ranges from 1 to 5 percent of real income.
Economic Commentary , Issue Mar

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