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Journal Article
Not Bullish: U.S. Cattle Herds Hung Up on Higher Interest Expenses
Cowley, Cortney; Kreitman, Ty; Scott, Francisco (2024-03-29)
Cattle inventories declined to historically low levels at the start of 2024. Cattle producers may facechallenges maintaining or restocking herds, as higher interest expenses on cattle and input purchases in2022–23 have constrained profit margins. Although feed costs have decreased slightly, higher costs forfinancing and other operating expenses could continue to put pressure on cattle production andprofitability.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Housing Services Inflation May Decline Only Gradually
Rappaport, Jordan (2024-06-24)
The inflation rate for housing services remains about 2 percentage points above its 2019 level. Several factors are likely to slow its decline, including more than a decade of underbuilding prior to the pandemic, limited capacity to increase the nation’s housing stock, and the limited number of homes available for sale due to the steeper mortgage rates owners would face if they sold and purchased a different home.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Gasoline Prices Unlikely to Bring Down Inflation in 2023
Dillon, Francis; Smith, Andrew Lee; Cakir Melek, Nida (2023-02-15)
Gasoline prices can influence inflation both directly (by changing prices at the pump) and indirectly (by shaping consumers’ inflation expectations). Through these channels, gasoline prices have played an important role in the run-up and recent decline in inflation. Although gasoline prices have declined from their all-time highs, they are expected to remain relatively stable in 2023. As a result, gasoline prices are unlikely to deliver further reductions in either inflation or inflation expectations this year.
Economic Bulletin , Issue February 15, 2023 , Pages 4

Journal Article
The Changing Investor Composition of U.S. Treasuries, Part 1: Foreign Treasury Sales Could Raise U.S. Yields
Dilts Stedman, Karlye (2025-07-09)
Although their market share has been falling steadily since 2010, foreign investors retain a large share of Treasuries outstanding. As a result, increased Treasury sales from this group could have substantial implications for yields. This Bulletin, the first in a two-part series, shows that a modest increase in liquidation among foreign investors could raise U.S. Treasury yields by 25 to 100 basis points. Even in the absence of outright sales, diminished purchasing of additional Treasury issuance is likely to drive up yields.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Labor Markets Are Tight, but Conditions Vary across States
Matschke, Johannes; Sattiraju, Sai (2021-12-22)
A record 4.4 million employees quit their jobs in September 2021, and many businesses are struggling to fill open positions. Although at a national level the labor market appears historically tight, we show that labor market tightness differs widely across states. Most states have tighter labor markets than before the pandemic, but others have struggled to recover.
Economic Bulletin , Issue Dec 22, 2021 , Pages 4

Journal Article
KC Fed LMCI Suggests Recent Inflation Is Not Due to the Tight Labor Market
Glover, Andrew; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Pollard, Emily (2021-10-20)
A tight labor market tends to raise wages and lower unemployment, but an overly tight labor market can cause inflation. Labor market momentum, as measured by the Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI), can signal whether the current level of activity in labor markets is inflationary.
Economic Bulletin , Issue October 20, 2021 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Increased Loan Demand and Higher Interest Rates May Benefit Ag Banks
Scott, Francisco (2022-07-13)
Extreme weather, geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and rising interest rates all directly affectU.S. agriculture, which may in turn affect banks that make agricultural loans. Demand for loans from agbanks could rise following events that reduce net farm income or increase banks’ ability to reprice loans,such as supply chain disruptions or higher interest rates. But competition with other banks and nonbankfinancial institutions may offset some of these benefits.
Economic Bulletin , Issue July 13, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
When Normalizing Monetary Policy, the Order of Operations Matters
Dilts Stedman, Karlye; Gulati, Chaitri (2021-10-14)
As economic conditions in the United States continue to improve, the FOMC may consider normalizing monetary policy. Whether the FOMC reduces the balance sheet before raising the federal funds rate (or vice versa) may affect the shape of the yield curve, with consequences for financial institutions. Drawing lessons from the previous normalization in 2015–19, we conclude that normalizing the balance sheet before raising the funds rate might forestall yield curve inversion and, in turn, support economic stability.
Economic Bulletin , Issue October 14, 2021 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Young Workers Fuel Recovery in Jobs Requiring a High School Diploma or Less
Pollard, Emily (2024-06-14)
The labor force of individuals with a high school diploma or less has surpassed pre-pandemic levels thanks to an increase in the number of young workers. However, this shift toward younger workers could affect both the current and future productive capacity of the economy. Young workers lack experience and work fewer hours, which could lead to productivity losses in the short term. More concerningly, some young people appear to be foregoing education to work, which may hurt their future labor market prospects.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Lower Labor Force Participation Rates and Slower Population Growth Pose Challenges for Employers
Shampine, Sam; Felix, Alison (2022-03-30)
As the nation recovers from the pandemic-induced recession, finding workers to fill job openings has beena headwind for many regions and industries. Although many researchers have pointed to the sharp declinein labor force participation rates as an explanation, the role of population growth over time has receivedless attention. We examine state and national trends in these measures and show that slower populationgrowth and an aging population may put downward pressure on labor force growth for some time.
Economic Bulletin , Issue Mar 30, 2022 , Pages 4

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