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Working Paper
Global Trade and GDP Co-Movement
Gaillard, Alexandre; de Soyres, Francois (2020-05-27)
We revisit the association between trade and GDP comovement for 135 countries from 1970 to 2009. Guided by a simple theory, we introduce two notions of trade linkages: (i) the usual direct bilateral trade index and (ii) new indexes of common exposure to third countries capturing the role of similarity in trade networks. Both measures are economically and statistically associated with GDP correlation, suggesting an additional channel through which GDP fluctuations propagate through trade linkages. Moreover, high income countries become more synchronized when the content of their trade is ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1282

Discussion Paper
Accumulated Savings During the Pandemic: An International Comparison with Historical Perspective
de Soyres, Francois; Moore, Dylan; Ortiz, Julio L. (2023-06-23)
The COVID-19 pandemic gave rise to unprecedented global economic conditions. Due to a mix of government-imposed restrictions and voluntary personal decisions, mobility levels collapsed in March 2020 and subsequently closely tracked the successive waves of the pandemic.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2023-06-23-2

Discussion Paper
Fiscal policy and excess inflation during Covid-19: a cross-country view
de Soyres, Francois; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Young, Henry L. (2022-07-15)
The recent surge in inflation in many countries around the world and the fiscal stimulus provided in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic has renewed interest in analyzing the potential role of large fiscal spending as a driver of price increases. In this note, we examine how fiscal support impacted the balance between supply and demand across countries during the COVID-19 crisis.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2022-07-15-1

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