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Author:Zha, Tao 

Working Paper
Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles

n the U.S. economy during the past 25 years, house prices exhibit fluctuations considerably larger than house rents, and these large fluctuations tend to move together with business cycles. We build a simple theoretical model to characterize these observations by showing the tight connection between price-rent fluctuation and the liquidity constraint faced by productive firms. After developing economic intuition for this result, we estimate a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the empirical importance of the role the price-rent fluctuation plays in the business cycle. ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-15

Working Paper
The S-curve: Understanding the Dynamics of Worldwide Financial Liberalization

Using a novel database of domestic financial reforms in 90 countries from 1973 to 2014, we document that global financial liberalization followed an S-curve path: reforms were slow and gradual in early periods, accelerated during the 1990s, and slowed down after 2000. We estimate a learning model that explains these dynamics. Policymakers updated their beliefs about the growth effects of financial reforms by learning from their own and other countries' experiences. Positive growth surprises in advanced economies helped accelerate belief updating worldwide, leading to the global wave of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-19

Working Paper
The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models

Having efficient and accurate samplers for simulating the posterior distribution is crucial for Bayesian analysis. We develop a generic posterior simulator called the "dynamic striated Metropolis-Hastings (DSMH)" sampler. Grounded in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, it draws its strengths from both the equi-energy sampler and the sequential Monte Carlo sampler by avoiding the weaknesses of the straight Metropolis-Hastings algorithm as well as those of importance sampling. In particular, the DSMH sampler possesses the capacity to cope with incredibly irregular distributions that are full ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-21

Working Paper
Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE model

The macroeconomic environment often changes repeatedly over time, and often in a recurring manner. For example, the economy may switch between periods of high and low growth, or monetary policy may switch between periods of strong versus weak responses to inflation. An important question for economists is how to model the presence of these switches, and to capture how expectations about switches in the future may impact economic behavior. ; This paper develops a methodology for solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models in the presence of switching environments. The approach ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 13-01

Working Paper
Bankruptcy law, capital allocation, and aggregate effects: a dynamic heterogeneous agent model with incomplete markets

Under the assumption that asset markets are incomplete, this paper introduces bankruptcy in an intertemporal heterogeneous agent model with capital accumulation and heterogeneous agents. It explores the role of regulatory intervention and argues that intervention in the form of a level of bankruptcy exemption can enhance not only social welfare but also distributive equity. The bankruptcy law is carefully specified in the model. The model generates distributional changes in consumption, capital, and bankruptcy risk in response to an adjustment in the exemption level and accentuates the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 95-8

Working Paper
Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models

We develop a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for equilibria to be determinate in a class of forward-looking Markov-switching rational expectations models, and we develop an algorithm to check these conditions in practice. We use three examples, based on the new Keynesian model of monetary policy, to illustrate our technique. Our work connects applied econometric models of Markov switching with forward-looking rational expectations models and allows an applied researcher to construct the likelihood function for models in this class over a parameter space that includes a determinate ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2009-05

Working Paper
Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations

We argue that positive co-movements between land prices and business investment are a driving force behind the broad impact of land-price dynamics on the macroeconomy. We develop an economic mechanism that captures the co-movements by incorporating two key features into a DSGE model: We introduce land as a collateral asset in firms? credit constraints and we identify a shock that drives most of the observed fluctuations in land prices. Our estimates imply that these two features combine to generate an empirically important mechanism that amplifies and propagates macroeconomic fluctuations ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2011-26

Working Paper
Generalizing the Taylor principle: comment

Davig and Leeper (2007) have proposed a condition they call the generalized Taylor principle to rule out indeterminate equilibria in a version of the New Keynesian model, where the parameters of the policy rule follow a Markov-switching process. We show that although their condition rules out a subset of indeterminate equilibria, it does not establish uniqueness of the fundamental equilibrium. We discuss the differences between indeterminate fundamental equilibria included by Davig and Leeper's condition and fundamental equilibria that their condition misses.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2008-19

Journal Article
Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macroeconomic model

Review , Volume 83 , Issue Jul

Working Paper
Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE models

Markov-switching DSGE (MSDSGE) modeling has become a growing body of literature on economic and policy issues related to structural shifts. This paper develops a general perturbation methodology for constructing high-order approximations to the solutions of MSDSGE models. Our new method, called "the partition perturbation method," partitions the Markov-switching parameter space to keep a maximum number of time-varying parameters from perturbation. For this method to work in practice, we show how to reduce the potentially intractable problem of solving MSDSGE models to the manageable problem ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-16

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