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Large, Dominant Firms Depress Local Wages; Housing Costs Help Offset Lower Pay
Tracy, Joseph; Kahn, Matthew E. (2020-01-07)
Concern has increased about the ability of very large firms to exert market power and hold down wages in localities where they dominate.
Dallas Fed Economics

Whose Wages Are Falling Behind the Least amid Surging Inflation?
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph; Krohn, Mason (2022-10-18)
For a majority of workers, wages didn’t increase as fast as inflation in the 12 months ended in second quarter 2022. Here, we dig deeper to see how outcomes may have differed across groups of workers.
Dallas Fed Economics

Report
Housing busts and household mobility: an update
Tracy, Joseph; Gyourko, Joseph; Ferreira, Fernando (2011)
This paper provides updated estimates of the impact of three financial frictions?negative equity, mortgage lock-in, and property tax lock-in?on household mobility. We add the 2009 wave of the American Housing Survey (AHS) to our sample and also create an improved measure of permanent moves in response to Schulhofer-Wohl?s (2011) critique of our earlier work (2010). Our updated estimates corroborate our previous results: Negative equity reduces household mobility by 30 percent, and $1,000 of additional mortgage or property tax costs reduces household mobility by 10 to 16 percent. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 526

What’s Up (or Not Up) with Wages?
Morris, Michael; Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W. (2019-11-12)
This is the third of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph; Naggert, Kristoph (2023-07-11)
The stabilization, or anchoring, of inflation expectations at a target can help a central bank meet its goals. This paper develops a measure of expectations’ anchoring that combines the deviation of a consensus forecast from an inflation target with forecaster disagreement. We apply the measure to survey-based forecasts of PCE price inflation at medium- and longer-run horizons. Following the FOMC’s 2012 announcement of a 2 percent inflation target, the anchoring of both forecast series steadily improved through 2020:Q4. Recently, while longer-run expectations have remained well-anchored, ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2023 , Issue 11 , Pages 7

How Much Slack Is Left in the Labor Market?
Howard, Sean; Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2021-07-06)
Our analysis shows that viewing the level of employment through the lens of the employment-to-population ratio does not indicate considerable slack in the labor market.
Dallas Fed Economics

Discussion Paper
A Better Measure of First-Time Homebuyers
Lee, Donghoon; Tracy, Joseph (2019-04-08)
Much of the concern about affordable homeownership has focused on first-time buyers. These buyers, who are often making the transition from renting to owning, can find it difficult to save to meet down-payment requirements; this is particularly true in those areas where rent takes up a significant portion of a household's monthly income. In contrast to first-time buyers, repeat buyers can typically rely on the equity in their current house to help fund the down payment on a trade-up purchase; they also have an easier time qualifying for a new mortgage if they've successfully made payments on ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190408

Ability to Repay a Mortgage: Assessing the Relationship Between Default, Debt-to-Income
Sexton, Daniel; Tracy, Joseph; Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Frame, W. Scott (2020-03-24)
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has announced that it intends to change the definition of a “qualified mortgage.” Specifically, the CFPB proposes to reconsider the use of a borrower's debt-to-income ratio as a measure of the ability to repay a loan.
Dallas Fed Economics

Discussion Paper
“Flip This House”: Investor Speculation and the Housing Bubble
Tracy, Joseph; Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2011-12-05)
The recent financial crisis—the worst in eighty years—had its origins in the enormous increase and subsequent collapse in housing prices during the 2000s. While the housing bubble has been the subject of intense public debate and research, no single answer has emerged to explain why prices rose so fast and fell so precipitously. In this post, we present new findings from our recent New York Fed study that uses unique data to suggest that real estate “investors”—borrowers who use financial leverage in the form of mortgage credit to purchase multiple residential properties—played a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20111205

Discussion Paper
First Impressions Can Be Misleading: Revisions to House Price Changes
Peach, Richard; Tracy, Joseph; Abel, Joshua (2013-03-26)
An assiduous follower of the national house price charts that the New York Fed maintains on its web page may have noticed that we appear to be rewriting history as we update the charts every month. For example, last month we reported that the median twelve-month house price change across all counties for December 2012 was 3.68 percent. However, this month, we indicate that this same median change for December 2012 was instead 3.45 percent. Why the change? Was the earlier reported number a mistake that we simply corrected this month? If not, what explains the revision to the initial report?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130326

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