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Working Paper
Fixed-premium deposit insurance and international credit crunches
Spiegel, Mark M. (1994)
We introduce a monopolistically-competitive model of foreign lending in which both explicit and implicit fixed-premium deposit insurance increase the degree to which bank participation in relending to problem debtors falls below its globally optimal level. This provides a channel for fixed-premium deposit insurance to inhibit credit extension in bad states, resulting in an increase in the expected default percentage and an increase in the expected burden on the deposit insurance institution.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-19

Working Paper
Quantitative easing and Japanese bank equity values
Yamori, Nobuyoshi; Spiegel, Mark M.; Kobayashi, Takeshi (2006)
One of the primary motivations offered by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for its quantitative easing program -- whereby it maintained a current account balance target in excess of required reserves, effectively pegging short-term interest rates at zero -- was to maintain credit extension by the troubled Japanese financial sector. We conduct an event study concerning the anticipated impact of quantitative easing on the Japanese banking sector by examining the impact of the introduction and expansion of the policy on Japanese bank equity values. We find that excess returns of Japanese banks were ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-19

Report
China in the global economy. SF Fed President John Williams talks with Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel, and Fernanda Nechio of the international research team about China's economic slowdown and how it's affecting global economic activity
Nechio, Fernanda; Liu, Zheng; Williams, John C.; Spiegel, Mark M. (2015)
In the 2015 annual report, What We've Learned...and why it matters, we share our research findings about the slowdown in China's economic growth and its effects on the U.S. economy, emerging market economies, and global commodity markets. Cyclical and structural factors underlie the slowdown. We discuss the impact of trends in exports and investment, and the country's transformation from a manufacturing-based economy to a service-based economy. We believe China's days of 10 percent economic growth likely are over.
Annual Report

Working Paper
Is China fudging its figures? Evidence from trading partner data
Spiegel, Mark M.; Fernald, John G.; Hsu, Eric (2015-09-21)
How reliable are China?s GDP and other data? We address this question by using trading-partner exports to China as an independent measure of its economic activity from 2000-2014. We find that the information content of Chinese GDP improves markedly after 2008. We also consider a number of plausible, non-GDP indicators of economic activity that have been identified as alternative Chinese output measures. We find that activity factors based on the first principal component of sets of indicators are substantially more informative than GDP alone. The index that best matches activity in-sample ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2015-12

Working Paper
Bank charter value and the viability of the Japanese convoy system
Spiegel, Mark M. (1999)
This paper compares the performance of a convoy banking system, similar to that which prevailed in Japan, to a fixed-premium deposit insurance regime. Under this system, failed banks are merged with healthy banks, rather than closed, so that the banking system itself provides the safety net for guaranteed deposits. While neither regime is generally preferable over the other, the results show that the performance of the convoy system is more sensitive to changes in bank charter values and the overall health of the banking system. The recent breakdown of the convoy system may therefore be ...
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series , Paper 99-06

Working Paper
Speculative capital inflows and exchange rate targeting in the Pacific Basin
Kletzer, Kenneth M.; Spiegel, Mark M. (1996)
This paper studies the process of capital inflow management and speculative inflows for countries pursuing the joint goals of monetary and exchange rate management. We introduce a sticky-price model with imperfect asset substitutability in which a central bank engages in costly sterilization to mitigate the influence of capital inflows on its policy targets. The costs of sterilization, often referred to as "quasi-fiscal costs" in the literature, reflect the loss experienced by the central bank by holding foreign securities whose nominal yields are inferior to those paid on domestic bonds. ...
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series , Paper 96-05

Journal Article
Do local bond markets help fight inflation?
Spiegel, Mark M.; Rose, Andrew K. (2016)
Domestic bond markets allow governments to inflate away their debt obligations. However, they also may create a group of bond holders with the influence and desire to demand lower stable inflation. These competing interests suggest the net impact of creating a local currency bond market on inflation is ambiguous. Recent research finds that the creation of such markets in countries with an inflation target does reduce inflation: Countries with bond markets experience inflation approximately 3 percentage points lower than those without.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Conference Paper
Human capital and technology diffusion
Benhabib, Jess; Spiegel, Mark M. (2002-11)
This paper generalizes the Nelson-Phelps catch-up model of technology diffusion facilitated by levels of human capital. We allow for the possibility that the pattern of technology diffusion can be exponential, which would predict that nations would exhibit positive catch-up with the leader nation, or logistic, in which a country with a sufficiently small capital stock may exhibit slower total factor productivity growth than the leader nation. ; We derive a nonlinear specification for total factor productivity growth that nests these two specifications. We estimate this specification for a ...
Proceedings , Issue Nov

Working Paper
Capital controls and optimal Chinese monetary policy
Spiegel, Mark M.; Chang, Chun; Liu, Zheng (2013)
We examine optimal monetary policy under prevailing Chinese policies> ? including capital controls, nominal exchange rate targets, and costly sterilization of foreign capital inflows. China?s combination of capital controls and exchange rate pegs disrupts its monetary policy, precluding adjustments that could maintain macroeconomic stability following a set of shocks that mirror its experience during the global financial crisis. However, comparing different policy regimes in a consistent DSGE framework, we find that the bulk of welfare gains achieved under full liberalization can be obtained ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2012-13

Working Paper
Asset price declines and real estate market illiquidity: evidence from Japanese land values
Yamori, Nobuyoshi; Spiegel, Mark M.; Krainer, John (2005)
We develop an overlapping generations model of the real estate market in which search frictions and a debt overhang combine to generate price persistence and illiquidity. Illiquidity stems from heterogeneity in agent real estate valuations. The variance of agent valuations determines how quickly prices adjust following a shock to fundamentals. We examine the predictions of the model by studying price depreciation in Japanese land values subsequent to the 1990 stock market crash. Commercial land values fell much more quickly than residential land values. As we would posit that the variance of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2004-16

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