Global Value Chains and U.S. Economic Activity During COVID-19
We investigate the role of global value chains in the declines of manufacturing employment and output in the U.S. during COVID-19. Specifically, we identify the role of global value chains by exploiting heterogeneity across industries in cross-country sourcing patterns and its interaction with exogenous cross-country variation in the containment policies introduced to combat the virus. We find that global value chains played a significant role in the decline of output and employment across U.S. manufactures. Moreover, we find a modest impact of diversifying or renationalizing global value ...
Knowledge Diffusion, Trade and Innovation across Countries and Sectors
We provide a unified framework for quantifying the cross-country and cross-sector interactions among trade, innovation, and knowledge diffusion. We study the effect of trade liberalization in an endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. We calibrate the model to match observed cross-country and cross-sector heterogeneity in production, innovation efficiency and knowledge spillovers. Our counterfactual analysis shows that a reduction in trade costs induces a re-allocation of R&D and comparative advantage across ...
Which Countries and Industries Contributed the Most to the Decline in Trade Barriers Around the World?
Diverse trends across countries and industries are behind the global decline in trade barriers.
Potential U.S. Consequences of China’s Capital Account Liberalization
Recent policies in China could change the structure of capital flows from China to the United States.
The Gravity of Experience
In this paper, we establish the importance of experience in international trade for reducing trade costs and facilitating bilateral trade. Within an augmented gravity framework, we find that an additional year of experience at the country-pair level reduces trade costs by 2.0% and increases bilateral exports by 8%. The effect of experience is stronger for country-pairs that are more distant, who do not share a common border, and who lack colonial and legal ties. Further, experience raises both the extensive and the intensive margins of trade. In a dynamic trade model with heterogeneous firms ...
Dynamic Gains from Trade Agreements with Intellectual Property Provisions
I study the short- and long-term effects of trade agreements with strict intellectual property (IP) provisions on innovation, growth and welfare. I develop a quantitative multi-country trade model with endogenous productivity through innovation and adoption that features imperfect IP rights enforcement. A counterfactual analysis shows that improving IP protection in exchange for market access increases welfare, innovation and growth in the world. However, welfare gains along the transition accrue differently across countries. While developed countries benefit both in the short- and inthe ...
Protectionism and Dependence on Imports of Essential Medical Equipment
The COVID-19 global pandemic has led to a surge in protectionism, which poses challenges to countries dependent on imports of essential medical equipment.
Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations
Some jobs certainly require more close interaction with other folks than other jobs. Which occupations are the most interactive, and which states have higher shares of these jobs?
Managing Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Flexible Exchange Rate Targeting
We show that a monetary policy rule that uses the exchange rate to stabilize the economy can outperform a Taylor rule in managing macroeconomics fluctuations and in achieving higher welfare. The differences between the rules are driven by: (i) the paths of the nominal exchange rate and the interest rate under each rule and (ii) time variation in the risk premium, which leads to deviations from uncovered interest parity. These differences are larger in economies, which are very open, which are more exposed to foreign shocks, or in which domestic and foreign goods are highly substitutable.
Manufacturing and Service Sector Roles in the Evolution of Innovation and Productivity
The relative size of the manufacturing sector in an economy depends on its stage of development. As economies become more industrialized, employment and output increase rapidly. Eventually, for large-enough levels of development, the contribution of the manufacturing sector starts declining in favor of the service sector.