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Working Paper
Bankruptcy and Delinquency in a Model of Unsecured Debt
Young, Eric R.; Athreya, Kartik B.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Tam, Xuan S. (2016-12-01)
This paper documents and interprets two facts central to the dynamics of informal default or "delinquency" on unsecured consumer debt. First, delinquency does not mean a persistent cessation of payment. In particular, we observe that for individuals 60 to 90 days late on payments, 85% make payments during the next quarter that allow them to avoid entering more severe delinquency. Second, many in delinquency (40%) have smaller debt obligations one quarter later. To understand these facts, we develop a theoretically and institutionally plausible model of debt delinquency and bankruptcy. Our ...
Working Paper , Paper 16-12

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2023-02-21)
Emerging countries have increasingly adopted rules to discipline government policy. The COVID-19 shock lead to widespread suspension and modification of these rules. We study rules and flexibility in a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. We find welfare gains from adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times. Though government policy cannot itself counteract fundamental shocks hitting the economy, the adoption of rules has a significant impact on policy, macroeconomic outcomes and welfare during large, unexpected ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

Working Paper
Financing Ventures
Greenwood, Jeremy; Sanchez, Juan M.; Han, Pengfei (2021-11)
The relationship between venture capital and growth is examined using an endogenous growth model incorporating dynamic contracts between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists. At each stage of financing, venture capitalists evaluate the viability of startups. If viable, venture capitalists provide funding for the next stage. The success of a project depends on the amount of funding. The model is confronted with stylized facts about venture capital: statistics by funding round concerning success rates, failure rates, investment rates, equity shares, and IPO values. The increased efficiency ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-035

Working Paper
Evergreening
Sanchez, Juan M.; Paul, Pascal; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2023-01)
We develop a simple model of relationship lending where lenders have incentives for evergreening loans by offering better terms to firms that are close to default. We detect such lending behavior using loan-level supervisory data for the United States. Banks that own a larger share of a firm's debt provide distressed firms with relatively more credit at lower interest rates. Building on this empirical validation, we incorporate the theoretical mechanism into a dynamic heterogeneous-firm model to show that evergreening affects aggregate outcomes, resulting in lower interest rates, higher ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-012

The Relationship between Wage Growth and Inflation, One Recession Later
Sanchez, Juan M.; Wilkinson, Olivia (2022-02-25)
Periods of high inflation generally are periods of low real wage growth. In the aftermath of the pandemic recession, is that still the case?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Employment dynamics during economic recoveries
Sanchez, Juan M.; Liborio, Constanza S. (2012)
Employment turnover was significantly lower following the Great Recession than following the previous two recessions.
Economic Synopses

Working Paper
Financing development : the role of information costs
Greenwood, Jeremy; Sanchez, Juan M.; Wang, Cheng (2009)
To address how technological progress in financial intermediation affects the economy, a costly-state verification framework is embedded into the standard growth model. The framework has two novel features. First, firms differ in the risk/return combinations that they offer. Second, the efficacy of monitoring depends upon the amount of resources invested in the activity. A financial theory of firm size results. Undeserving firms are over financed, deserving ones underfunded. Technological advance in intermediation leads to more capital accumulation and a redirection of funds away from ...
Working Paper , Paper 08-08

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Inokuma, Hiroshi; Sanchez, Juan M. (2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the shape of a business's productivity life-cycle profile determines the direction of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. Japan's expected decline in population ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

The Broad, Continuing Rise in U.S. Credit Card Debt Delinquency
Sanchez, Juan M.; Mori, Masataka (2024-05-14)
An analysis examines the continuing rise in U.S. credit card delinquency through the share of people late on their payments and the share of debt that’s past due.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Bankruptcy and delinquency in a model of unsecured debt
Young, Eric R.; Athreya, Kartik B.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Tam, Xuan S. (2012)
This paper documents and interprets two facts central to the dynamics of informal default or ?delinquency? on unsecured consumer debt. First, delinquency does not mean a persistent cessation of payment. In particular, we observe that for individuals 60 to 90 days late on payments, 85% make payments during the next quarter that allow them to avoid entering more severe delinquency. Second, many in delinquency (40%) have smaller debt obligations one quarter later. To understand these facts, we develop a theoretically and institutionally plausible model of debt delinquency and bankruptcy. Our ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-042

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