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Report
Nonlinear impulse response functions
Potter, Simon M. (1999)
The standard linear technique of impulse response function analysis is extended to the nonlinear case by defining a generalized impulse response function. Measures of persistence and asymmetry in response are constructed for a wide class of time series.
Staff Reports , Paper 65

Working Paper
Monetary policy implementation with an ample supply of reserves
Afonso, Gara; Kim, Kyungmin; Martin, Antoine; Nosal, Ed; Potter, Simon M.; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam (2020-01-18)
Methods of monetary policy implementation continue to change. The level of reserve supply—scarce, abundant, or somewhere in between—has implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of an implementation regime. The money market events of September 2019 highlight the need for an analytical framework to better understand implementation regimes. We discuss major issues relevant to the choice of an implementation regime, using a parsimonious framework and drawing from the experience in the United States since the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We find that the optimal level of reserve supply ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-02

Speech
Models only get you so far: remarks for the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and New York's First Annual Joint Research Day on Quantitative Tools for Monitoring Macroeconomic and Financial Conditions, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Potter, Simon M. (2019-02-22)
Remarks for the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and New York's First Annual Joint Research Day on Quantitative Tools for Monitoring Macroeconomic and Financial Conditions, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 306

Speech
Concluding remarks at the Monetary Policy Implementation in the Long Run Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Potter, Simon M. (2016-10-20)
Remarks at the Monetary Policy Implementation in the Long Run Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Speech , Paper 220

Speech
Improving the measurement of inflation expectations
Potter, Simon M. (2012)
Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.
Speech , Paper 84

Report
Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates
Potter, Simon M.; Chauvet, Marcelle; Juhn, Chinhui (2001)
We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics among unemployment rates disaggregated for seven age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic factors to secular changes in unemployment rates. In addition, it allows examination of the separate contribution of changes due to asymmetric business cycle fluctuations. We find strong evidence in favor of the common factor and of the switching between high and low unemployment rate regimes. We also find ...
Staff Reports , Paper 132

Speech
The Federal Reserve’s counterparty framework: past, present, and future
Potter, Simon M. (2015-11-19)
Remarks at the 2015 Roundtable on Treasury Markets and Debt Management, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 188

Journal Article
Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations
Topa, Giorgio; Potter, Simon M.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Rich, Robert W.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2010-08)
Expectations about future inflation are generally thought to play an important role in households' decisions about spending and saving. They are also of great interest to central bankers, who take them into account when determining policy or assessing the effectiveness of communications with the public. To help improve existing survey measures of inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently joined with other institutions and academic consultants to develop a set of survey questions that will yield more reliable information on households' inflation expectations, ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 16 , Issue Aug/Sep

Report
Nonlinear time series modelling: an introduction
Potter, Simon M. (1999)
Recent developments in nonlinear time series modelling are reviewed. Three main types of nonlinear models are discussed: Markov Switching, Threshold Autoregression and Smooth Transition Autoregression. Classical and Bayesian estimation techniques are described for each model. Parametric tests for nonlinearity are reviewed with examples from the three types of models. Finally, forecasting and impulse response analysis is developed.
Staff Reports , Paper 87

Discussion Paper
Conclusion: How Low Will the Unemployment Rate Go?
Potter, Simon M.; McCarthy, Jonathan; Sahin, Aysegul (2012-04-02)
A major theme of the posts in our labor market series has been that the outflows from unemployment, either into employment or out of the labor force, have been the primary determinant of unemployment rate dynamics in long expansions. The key to the importance of outflows is that within long expansions there have not been adverse shocks that lead to a burst of job losses. To illustrate the power of this mechanism, we presented simulations in a previous post that were based on the movements in the outflow and inflow rates in the previous three expansions. These simulated paths show the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120402

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