Household Debt-to-Income Ratios in the Enhanced Financial Accounts
This note describes new data on household debt-to-income ratios (DTI) that is being provided in interactive maps as part of the Enhanced Financial Accounts (EFA).
Funding Agreement-Backed Securities in the Enhanced Financial Accounts
This note describes new data on funding agreement-backed securities (FABS) that is being provided as part of the Enhanced Financial Accounts (EFA) initiative.
The Rise of Shadow Banking : Evidence from Capital Regulation
We investigate the connections between bank capital regulation and the prevalence of lightly regulated nonbanks (shadow banks) in the U.S. corporate loan market. For identification, we exploit a supervisory credit register of syndicated loans, loan-time fixed-effects, and shocks to capital requirements arising from surprise features of the U.S. implementation of Basel III. We find that less-capitalized banks reduce loan retention and nonbanks step in, particularly among loans with higher capital requirements and at times when capital is scarce. This reallocation has important spillovers: ...
State Capacity and Public Goods: Institutional Change, Human Capital, and Growth in Early Modern Germany
What are the origins and consequences of the state as a provider of public goods? We study legal reforms that established mass public education and increased state capacity in German cities during the 1500s. These fundamental changes in public goods provision occurred where ideological competition during the Protestant Reformation interacted with popular politics at the local level. We document that cities that formalized public goods provision in the 1500s began differentially producing and attracting upper tail human capital and grew to be significantly larger in the long-run. We study ...
Pipeline Risk in Leveraged Loan Syndication
Leveraged term loans are typically arranged by banks but distributed to institutional investors. Using novel data, we find that to elicit investors' willingness to pay, arrangers expose themselves to pipeline risk: They have to retain larger shares when investors are willing to pay less than expected. We argue that the retention of such problematic loans creates a debt overhang problem. Consistent with this, we find that the materialization of pipeline risk for an arranger reduces its subsequent arranging and lending activity. Aggregate time series exhibit a similar pattern, which suggests ...
How the Federal Reserve's Central Bank Swap Lines Have Supported U.S. Corporate Borrowers in the Leveraged Loan Market
The cost of borrowing U.S. dollars through foreign exchange (FX) swap markets increased significantly in the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in February 2020, indicated by larger deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP). CIP deviations narrowed again when the Federal Reserve expanded its swap lines to support U.S. dollar liquidity globally—by enhancing and extending its swap facility with foreign central banks and introducing the new temporary Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) repurchase agreement facility.
Off-Balance Sheet Items of Depository Institutions in the Enhanced Financial Accounts
The Enhanced Financial Accounts initiative is an ambitious, long-term effort to augment the Financial Accounts of the United States with a more detailed picture of financial intermediation in the United States. This Note describes one initial project to provide more detailed information on the holdings and activities of depository institutions.
The U.S. Syndicated Term Loan Market: Who Holds What and When?
This note looks carefully at the transition of ownership of syndicated term loans immediately after a deal is launched based on the Shared National Credit data.
The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: Implications for countercyclical capital buffers
Macroeconomists have long recognized that activity-gap measures are unreliable in real time and that this can present serious difficulties for stabilization policy. This paper investigates whether the credit-to-GDP ratio gap, which has been proposed as a reference point for accumulating countercyclical capital buffers, is subject to similar problems. We find that ex-post revisions to the U.S. credit-to-GDP ratio gap are sizable and as large as the gap itself, and that the main source of these revisions stems from the unreliability of end-of-sample estimates of the series' trend rather than ...
Credit line use and availability in the financial crisis: the importance of hedging
What determined the corporate use of credit lines in the recent financial crisis? To address this question we hand-collect data on credit lines and interest rate hedging for a random sample of 600 COMPUSTAT firms. We document that drawdowns of credit lines had already increased in 2007, earlier than what previous work has found. The surge in drawdowns occurred precisely when disruptions in bank funding markets began. In addition, we distinguish unused and available portions of credit lines, which we then use to disentangle credit supply and credit demand effects. On the supply side, we find ...