Search Results
Working Paper
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk
We investigate the role financial conditions play in the composition of U.S. growth-at-risk. We document that, by a wide margin, growth-at-risk is investment-at-risk. That is, if financial conditions indicate U.S. real GDP growth will be in the lower tail of its conditional distribution, we know that the main contributor is a decline in investment. Consumption contributes under extreme financial stress. Government spending and net exports do not play a role. We show that leverage plays a key role in determining both consumption- and investment-at-risk, which provides support to the financial ...
Working Paper
Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions
This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point and density forecasts in the context of forecasts made by Vector Autoregressions. Specific emphasis is placed on highlighting those parts of the existing literature that are applicable to direct multi-step forecasts and those parts that are applicable to iterated multi-step forecasts. This literature includes advancements in the evaluation of forecasts in population (based on true, unknown model coefficients) and the evaluation of forecasts in the finite sample (based on estimated model coefficients). The paper then examines in ...
Working Paper
Consistent testing for structural change at the ends of the sample
In this paper we provide analytical and Monte Carlo evidence that Chow and Predictive tests can be consistent against alternatives that allow structural change to occur at either end of the sample. Attention is restricted to linear regression models that may have a break in the intercept. The results are based on a novel reparameterization of the actual and potential break point locations. Standard methods parameterize both of these locations as fixed fractions of the sample size. We parameterize these locations as more general integer valued functions. Power at the ends of the sample is ...
Working Paper
Reconsidering the Fed’s Forecasting Advantage
Previous studies show the Fed has a forecast advantage over the private sector, either because it devotes more resources to forecasting or because it has an informational advantage in knowing the path of future monetary policy. We evaluate the Fed’s forecast advantage to determine how much of it results from the Fed’s knowledge of the conditioning path. We develop two tests—an instrumental variable encompassing test and a path-dependent encompassing test—to equalize the Fed’s information set with the private sector’s. We find that, generally, the Fed does not encompass the private ...
Working Paper
Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability: Some Simulation Evidence
In this note we provide simulation evidence on the size and power of tests of predictive ability described in Giacomini and White (2006). Our goals are modest but non-trivial. First, we establish that there exist data generating processes that satisfy the null hypotheses of equal finite-sample (un)conditional predictive ability. We then consider various parameterizations of these DGPs as a means of evaluating the size and power properties of the proposed tests. While some of our results reinforce those in Giacomini and White (2006), others do not. We recommend against using the fixed scheme ...
Working Paper
Combining forecasts from nested models
Motivated by the common finding that linear autoregressive models forecast better than models that incorporate additional information, this paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of combining forecasts from nested models. In our analytics, the unrestricted model is true, but as the sample size grows, the DGP converges to the restricted model. This approach captures the practical reality that the predictive content of variables of interest is often low. We derive MSE-minimizing weights for combining the restricted and unrestricted forecasts. In the ...
Working Paper
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk
We investigate the role financial conditions play in the composition of U.S. growth-at-risk. We document that, by a wide margin, growth-at-risk is investment-at-risk. That is, if financial conditions indicate U.S. real GDP growth will be in the lower tail of its conditional distribution, we know that the main contributor is a decline in investment. Consumption contributes under extreme financial stress. Government spending and net exports do not play a role.
Working Paper
Forecasting with small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities
Small-scale VARs are widely used in macroeconomics for forecasting U.S. output, prices, and interest rates. However, recent work suggests these models may exhibit instabilities. As such, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve their forecast accuracy. These include using different observation windows for estimation, intercept correction, time-varying parameters, break dating, Bayesian shrinkage, model averaging, etc. This paper compares the effectiveness of such methods in real time forecasting. We use forecasts from univariate time series models, the Survey of ...
What Do Components of Key Inflation Measures Say about Future Inflation?
A new analysis suggests that the food expenditures category of the consumer price index could be a useful signal of future headline inflation.
Working Paper
On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth
We provide evidence on the real-time predictive content of the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), for conditional quantiles of U.S. real GDP growth. Our work is distinct from the literature in two specific ways. First, we construct (unofficial) real-time vintages of the NFCI. This allows us to conduct out-of-sample analysis without introducing the kind of look-ahead biases that are naturally introduced when using a single current vintage. We then develop methods for conducting asymptotic inference on tests of equal tick loss between nested quantile regression models when the data are ...