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Journal Article
Lessons from the recent recession: the faster they grow, the harder they fall
Martin, Fernando M. (2013)
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted significantly and persistently during the recent financial crisis and recession. Lessons can be learned from comparing the U.S. experience with that of other industrialized countries.
Economic Synopses

Is Inflation on the Way Out or Here to Stay?
Martin, Fernando M. (2023-10-19)
An analysis suggests certain economic factors, such as excess savings, and stubborn price increases in services are risks that might delay or potentially reverse the decline in overall inflation.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Fiscal Dominance
Martin, Fernando M. (2020-10-29)
Who prevails when fiscal and monetary authorities disagree about the value of public expenditure and how much to discount the future? When the fiscal authority sets debt as its main policy instrument it achieves fiscal dominance, rendering the preferences of the central bank, and thus its independence, irrelevant. When the central bank sets the nominal interest rate it renders fiscal impatience (its debt bias) irrelevant, but still faces its expenditure bias. I find that the expenditure bias is about an order of magnitude more severe than the debt bias and has a major impact on welfare ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-040

Journal Article
Fiscal policy in the Great Recession and lessons from the past
Martin, Fernando M. (2012)
The recent behavior of key fiscal policy variables draws some parallels with the U.S. experience in the Civil War and the two world wars. A specific concern is the possibility of high inflation to finance the accumulated debt.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Labor market update
Martin, Fernando M. (2014)
There has been a significant and steady drop in the unemployment rate since late 2009, but unemployment duration remains high and employment as a percentage of the working-age population has not recovered.
Economic Synopses , Issue 7

Working Paper
Implications of Inflation Dynamics for Monetary Policy Strategies
Chung, Hess T.; Jones, Callum J.; Lepetit, Antoine; Martin, Fernando M. (2025-08-22)
This paper considers robust monetary policy strategies both in situations of low demand and low inflation and when economic developments pose a tradeoff between inflation and output stabilization. We proceed in two parts. First, our quantitative analysis suggests that asymmetric average inflation targeting can provide modest benefits over other inflation-targeting strategies when the risks associated with the effective lower bound remain significant. Second, motivated by the recent experience of persistent supply shocks and rapid increases in inflation, we describe the main qualitative ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-072

Journal Article
The U.S. Financial Landscape on the Eve of the Pandemic
Martin, Fernando M. (2020-08-10)
During the 2007-08 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve stepped in to prevent a possible panic. How did this affect the U.S. financial system in later years?
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 3

Journal Article
A Closer Look at Federal Income Taxes
Martin, Fernando M. (2016)
Tax cuts for the middle class, even minor ones, would imply big declines in revenue. Closing the deficit by taxing the rich would require major tax hikes.
Economic Synopses , Issue 23 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Monetary Policy and the Output Gap
Martin, Fernando M. (2014)
Overestimating how far the economy is away from its potential unnecessarily risks delaying the end of unusual monetary accommodation.
Economic Synopses , Issue 27

Working Paper
How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal Policy Rules
Martin, Fernando M. (2021-04-05)
Countries have widely imposed fiscal rules designed to constrain government spending and ensure fiscal responsibility. This paper studies the effectiveness and welfare implications of revenue, deficit and debt rules when governments are discretionary and profligate. The optimal prescription is a revenue ceiling coupled with a balance budget requirement. For the U.S., the optimal revenue ceiling is about 15% of output, 3 percentage points below the postwar average. Most of the benefits can still be reaped with a milder constraint or escape clauses during adverse times. Imposing a single fiscal ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-026

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