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Author:Manuelli, Rodolfo E. 

Working Paper
A model of price swings in the housing market

In this paper we use a standard neoclassical model supplemented by some frictions to understand large price swings in the housing market. We construct a two good general equilibrium model in which housing is a composite good produced using structures and land. We revisit the connection between changes in interest rates, credit conditions as measured by maximum loan-to-value ratios and expectations in influencing housing prices in a setting in which the stock of housing can be used as collateral for borrowing and credit markets are segmented. We find that changes in interest rates and credit ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-022

Journal Article
Monetary Policy with Declining Deficits: Theory and an Application to Recent Argentine Monetary Policy

The authors study the nature of the optimal monetary policy in a regime of fiscal dominance when the monetary authority?which can print money or issue interest-earning debt?is required to finance an exogenous sequence of transfers to the Treasury. They show that the degree of commitment on the part of the monetary authority has a significant impact on the details of the optimal policy. They apply this model to the recent experience of Argentina and find that the inflation rate experienced by Argentina during the first year of the monetary program is close to the predictions of a weakly ...
Review , Volume 99 , Issue 4 , Pages 351-375

Report
Endogenous policy choice: the case of pollution and growth

What determines the relationship between pollution and growth? Are the forces that explain the behavior over time of these quantities potentially useful to understand more generally the relationship between policies and growth? In this paper, we make a first attempt to analyze the equilibrium behavior of two quantities?the level of pollution and the level of income?in a setting in which societies choose, via voting, how much to regulate pollution. Our major finding is that, consistent with the evidence, the relationship between pollution and growth need not be monotone and that the precise ...
Staff Report , Paper 276

Working Paper
Frictionless technology diffusion: the case of tractors

Empirical evidence suggests that there is a long lag between the time a new technology is introduced and the time at which it is widely adopted. The conventional wisdom is that this fact is inconsistent with the predictions of the frictionless neoclassical model. In this paper we study the specific case of the diffusion of the tractor in American agriculture between 1910 and 1960. There are three important driving forces: changes in quality, wage rates and prices of substitutes such as horses and mules. We demonstrate that once these exogenous forces are taken into account, the standard ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-022

Report
Labor contracts in a model of imperfect competition

We propose a definition of involuntary unemployment which differs from that traditionally used in implicit labor contract theory. We say that a worker is involuntarily unemployed if the marginal wage implied by the optimal contract exceeds the marginal rate of substitution between leisure and consumption. We construct a model where risk-neutral firms have monopoly power and show that such monopoly power is necessary for involuntary unemployment to arise in the optimal contract. We numerically compute examples and show that such unemployment occurs for a wide range of parameter values.
Staff Report , Paper 117

Journal Article
Human Capital and Development

Perhaps no question has attracted as much attention in the economics literature as ?Why are some countries richer than others?? In this article, the author revisits the ?development problem? and provides some estimates of the importance of human capital in accounting for cross-country differences in output per worker. His results suggest that human capital has a central role in determining the wealth of nations and that the quality of human capital varies systematically with the level of development.
Review , Volume 97 , Issue 3

Conference Paper
Frictionless technology diffusion: the case of tractors

Empirical evidence suggests that there is a long lag between the time a new technology is introduced and the time at which it is widely adopted. The conventional wisdom is that these observations are inconsistent with the predictions of the frictionless neoclassical model. In this paper we show this to be incorrect. Once the appropriate driving forces are taken into account, the neoclassical model can account for 'slow' adoption. We illustrate this by developing an industry model to study the equilibrium rate of diffusion of tractors in the U.S. between 1910 and 1960.
Proceedings , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Policy Instability and the Risk-Return Trade-Off

What is the impact of large swings in economic policy on the risk-return trade-off faced by investors? What is the impact of changes in policy regimes on investment strategies? In this paper we study the impact on returns of switches between periods of market-friendly economic policies and periods of populist policies. To quantify the impact of policy instability, we use data from Argentina—a country that has experienced frequent and very large regime changes—and find that the risk-return for individual assets and minimum variance portfolios are quite different across regimes. We then ...
Review , Volume 106 , Issue 2 , Pages 106-128

Journal Article
\\"Frictions in financial and labor markets\\": a summary of the 35th Annual Economic Policy Conference

This article contains synopses of the papers presented at the 35th Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis held October 21-22, 2010. The conference theme was ?Frictions in Financial and Labor Markets.? Leading participants in this field presented their research and commentary.
Review , Volume 93 , Issue July , Pages 273-292

Working Paper
Endogenous Debt Maturity: Liquidity Risk vs. Default Risk

We study the endogenous determination of corporate debt maturity in a setting with default risk. We assume that firms must access the bond market and they issue debt with a flexible structure (coupon, face value, and maturity). Initially, the firm is in a low growth/illiquid state that requires debt refinancing if it matures. Since lenders do not refinance projects with positive but small net present value, firms may be forced to default in the first phase. We call this liquidity risk. The technology is such that earnings can switch to a higher (but riskier) level. In this second phase firms ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-34

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