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Working Paper
Institutional Herding and Its Price Impact : Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market
Among growing concerns about potential financial stability risks posed by the asset management industry, herding has been considered as an important risk amplification channel. In this paper, we examine the extent to which institutional investors herd in their trading of U.S. corporate bonds and quantify the price impact of such herding behavior. We find that, relative to what is documented for the equity market, the level of institutional herding is much higher in the corporate bond market, particularly among speculative-grade bonds. In addition, mutual funds have become increasingly likely ...
Working Paper
The fragility of discretionary liquidity provision - lessons from the collapse of the auction rate securities market
We study the fragility of discretionary liquidity provision by major financial intermediaries during systemic events. The laboratory of our study is the recent collapse of the auction rate securities (ARS) market. Using a comprehensive dataset constructed from auction reports and intraday transactions data on municipal ARS, we present quantitative evidence that auction dealers acted at their own discretion as "market makers" before the market collapsed. We show that this discretionary liquidity provision greatly affected both net investor demand and auction clearing rates. Importantly, such ...
Working Paper
Belief dispersion among household investors and stock trading volume
We study the effects of belief dispersion on stock trading volume. Unlike most of the existing work on the subject, our paper focuses on how household investors' disagreements on macroeconomic variables influence market-wide trading volume. We show that greater belief dispersion among household investors is associated with significantly higher trading volume, even after controlling for the disagreements among professional forecasters. Further, we find that the belief dispersion among household investors who are more likely to own stocks has more pronounced effects on trading volume, ...
Working Paper
Institutional herding in the corporate bond market
We find substantial herding in U.S. corporate bonds among bond fund managers, much higher than that previously documented for the equity market. Herding is generally stronger among illiquid bonds, and buy herding and sell herding are driven by different factors. In particular, sell herding increases on negative news about bond ratings and corporate earnings. Interestingly, increases in ex-post transparency in corporate bond trading through Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) led to higher buy herding but not to higher sell herding. Finally, we find significant return reversals in ...
Conference Paper
Liquidity, runs, and security design: lessons from the collapse of the auction rate municipal bond market
In this paper, we use the recent collapse of the ARS market as a case study on important issues regarding fragility of financial innovations and systemic risks. We find strong evidence of investor runs for liquidity, partly caused by a self-fulfilling panic. In addition, coordination failures triggered by an unexpected first mover led all major broker-dealers to simultaneously withdraw their liquidity support. We also find that the likelihood of auction failures and ARS reset rates depend significantly on both the rule and the level of maximum auction rates; that, as predicted by auction ...
Discussion Paper
The U.S. Syndicated Term Loan Market: Who Holds What and When?
This note looks carefully at the transition of ownership of syndicated term loans immediately after a deal is launched based on the Shared National Credit data.
Working Paper
CEO pay and the market for CEOs
Competitive sorting models of the CEO labor market (e.g., Edmans, Gabaix and Landier (2009)) predict that differences in CEO productive abilities, or "talent", should be an important determinant of CEO pay. However, measuring CEO talent empirically represents a major challenge. In this paper, we document reliable evidence of pay for CEO credentials and argue that the evidence is consistent with models of the CEO labor market. Our main finding is that boards' compensation decisions reward several reputational, career, and educational credentials of CEOs, with newly-appointed CEOs earning a 5 ...
Working Paper
Are Household Investors Noise Traders: Evidence from Belief Dispersion and Stock Trading Volume
We document a robust positive relationship between the belief dispersion about macroeconomic conditions among household investors and the stock market trading volume, using more than 30 years of household survey data and a novel approach to measuring belief dispersions. Notably, such a relationship prevails even after various series of professional analysts' belief dispersions are controlled for. Consistent with a causal effect, such a relationship is most pronounced for belief dispersion among individuals who are most likely to own stocks and for trading volume of stocks that are most ...
Working Paper
Dealer Networks
Dealers in over-the-counter securities form networks to mitigate search frictions. The audit trail for municipal bonds shows the dealer network has a core-periphery structure. Central dealers are more efficient at matching buyers and sellers than peripheral dealers, which shortens intermediation chains and speeds up trading. Investors face a tradeoff between execution speed and cost. Central dealers provide immediacy by pre-arranging fewer trades and holding larger inventory. However, trading costs increase strongly with dealer centrality. Investors with strong liquidity need trade with ...