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Working Paper
Sowing the Seeds of Financial Imbalances: The Role of Macroeconomic Performance
Afanasyeva, Elena; Modugno, Michele; Lee, Seung Jung; Jerow, Sam (2020-04-07)
The seeds of financial imbalances are sown in times of buoyant economic growth. We study the link between macroeconomic performance and financial imbalances, focusing on the experience of the United States since the 1960s. We first follow a narrative approach to review historical episodes of significant financial imbalances and find that the onset of financial disturbances typically occurs when the economy is running hot. We then look for evidence of a statistical link between measures of macroeconomic conditions and financial imbalances. In our in-sample analysis, we find that strong ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-028

Working Paper
Risk-Taking Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy in the Global Market for U.S. Dollar Corporate Loans
Lee, Seung Jung; Stebunovs, Viktors; Liu, Lucy Qian (2019-07-23)
We study the effects of U.S. interest rates and other factors on risk-taking in the global market for U.S. dollar syndicated term loans. We find that, before the Global Financial Crisis, both U.S. and non-U.S. lenders originated ex ante riskier loans to non-U.S. borrowers in response to a decline in short-term U.S. interest rates and, after the crisis, in response to a decline in longer-term U.S. interest rates. After the crisis, this behavior was more prominent for shadow banks and less prominent for banks with relatively low capital. Separately, before the crisis, lenders originated less ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1251

Working Paper
The Well-Being of Nations: Estimating Welfare from International Migration
Lin, Jeffrey; Lee, Seung Jung; Lee, Sanghoon (2020-01-14)
The limitations of GDP as a measure of welfare are well known. We propose a new method of estimating the well-being of nations. Using gross bilateral international migration flows and a discrete choice model in which everyone in the world chooses a country in which to live, we estimate each country?s overall quality of life. Our estimates, by relying on revealed preference, complement previous estimates of economic well-being that consider only income or a small number of factors, or rely on structural assumptions about how these factors contribute to wellbeing.
Working Papers , Paper 19-33

Discussion Paper
The Relationship between Macroeconomic Overheating and Financial Vulnerability : A Narrative Investigation
Palomino, Francisco J.; Afanasyeva, Elena; Modugno, Michele; Lee, Seung Jung (2018-10-12)
In this note, we follow a narrative approach to review historical episodes of significant financial imbalances and examine whether these episodes were linked to macroeconomic overheating.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2018-10-12-2

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