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Journal Article
Inventories and the recovery
Bennett, Barbara; Klitgaard, Thomas (1983)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Discussion Paper
The Declining U.S. Reliance on Foreign Investors
Klitgaard, Thomas; Mui, Preston (2014-08-20)
The United States has been borrowing from the rest of the world since the mid-1980s. From 2000 to 2008, this borrowing averaged over $600 billion per year, which translates into U.S. spending exceeding income by almost 5.0 percent of GDP. Borrowing fell during the recent recession, as would be expected, and then rebounded with the recovery. Since 2011, however, borrowing has trended down and fell to 2.4 percent of GDP in 2013, the smallest amount as a share of GDP since 1997. A reduced dependency on foreign funds can be viewed as a favorable development to the extent that it reflects an ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140820

Discussion Paper
Inflation and Japan's Ever-Tightening Labor Market
De Paoli, Bianca; Wheeler, Harry; Klitgaard, Thomas (2016-11-14)
Japan offers a preview of future U.S. demographic trends, having already seen a large increase in the population over 65. So, how has the Japanese economy dealt with this change? A look at the data shows that women of all ages have been pulled into the labor force and that more people are working longer. This transformation of the work force has not been enough to prevent a very tight labor market in a slowly growing economy, and it may help explain why inflation remains minimal. Namely, wages are not responding as much as they might to the tight labor market because women and older workers ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161114

Discussion Paper
Reconsidering the Phase One Trade Deal with China in the Midst of the Pandemic
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2020-08-05)
It may be hard to remember given the pandemic, but trade tensions between the United States and China eased in January 2020 with the inking of the Phase One agreement. Under the deal, China committed to a massive increase in its purchases of U.S. goods and services, with targets set for various types of products. At the time of the pact, the U.S. economy was operating near full capacity, and any increase in U.S. exports stemming from the pact would likely have resulted in only a small boost to growth. The environment is now starkly different, with the U.S. economy operating far below ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200805

Journal Article
Viewing the current account deficit as a capital inflow
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (1998-12)
With the 1998 current account deficit approaching $225 billion, attention is again focusing on the deficit's impact on U.S. jobs. Although a high deficit does adversely affect employment in export- and import-competing industries, it also means that considerable foreign capital is flowing into the United States, supporting domestic investment spending that stimulates growth and creates jobs.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 4 , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Free versus fair trade: the dumping issue
Schiele, Karen; Klitgaard, Thomas (1998-08)
Trade liberalization has had little effect on the use of antidumping tariffs - tariffs imposed on imports judged by a government to be unfairly priced. As more countries resort to such tariffs, questions arise about the merits of this form of trade protection, particularly when other remedies are available to industries hurt by import competition.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 4 , Issue Aug

Journal Article
Saving imbalances and the euro area sovereign debt crisis
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2011-09)
For several years prior to 2010, countries in the euro area periphery engaged in heavy borrowing from foreign private investors, allowing domestic spending to outpace incomes. Now these countries face debt crises reflecting a loss of investor confidence in the sustainability of their finances. The result has been an abrupt halt in private foreign lending to these economies. This study explains how the periphery countries became dependent on foreign borrowing and considers the challenges they face reigniting growth while adjusting to greatly reduced access to foreign capital.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 17 , Issue Sept

Discussion Paper
Foreign Borrowing in the Euro Area Periphery: The End Is Near
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2013-05-22)
Current account deficits in euro area periphery countries have now largely disappeared. This represents a substantial adjustment. Only two years ago, deficits stood at nearly 10 percent of GDP in Greece and Portugal and 5 percent in Spain and Italy (see chart below). This sharp narrowing means that spending has been brought in line with income, largely righting an imbalance that had left these countries dependent on heavy foreign borrowing. However, adjustment has come at a sizable cost to growth, with lower domestic spending only partly offset by higher export sales. Downward pressure on ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130522

Discussion Paper
Crisis Chronicles: The Man on the Twenty-Dollar Bill and the Panic of 1837
Narron, James; Klitgaard, Thomas (2015-05-08)
President Andrew Jackson was a 'hard money' man. He saw specie--that is, gold and silver--as real money, and considered paper money a suspicious store of value fabricated by corrupt bankers. So Jackson issued a decree that purchases of government land could only be made with gold or silver. And just as much as Jackson loved hard money, he despised the elites running the banking system, so he embarked on a crusade to abolish the Second Bank of the United States (the Bank). Both of these efforts by Jackson boosted the demand for specie and revealed the soft spots in an economy based on hard ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150508

Discussion Paper
How Has Germany's Economy Been Affected by the Recent Surge in Immigration?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2019-05-20)
Germany emerged as a leading destination for immigration around 2011, as the country's labor market improved while unemployment climbed elsewhere in the European Union. A second wave began in 2015, with refugees from the Middle East adding to already heavy inflows from Eastern Europe. The demographic consequences of the surge in immigration include a renewed rise in Germany's population and the stabilization of the country's median age. The macroeconomic consequences are hard to measure but look promising, since per capita income growth has held up and unemployment has declined. Data on ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190520

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