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Author:Kliesen, Kevin L. 

Journal Article
National Overview: Pace of Growth Is Expected To Quicken

There are a few negative developments that bode ill for the U.S. economy this year, but they are probably outweighed by recent positive developments. As a result, GDP growth is likely to be stronger this year than in 2014.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan

Journal Article
Modest Improvement in Economy Expected over Rest of the Year

Strong job growth, consumer spending and housing activity bode well for the economy this year.
The Regional Economist , Issue April

Journal Article
A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth

Analyzing the performance of the economy in real time is a challenge for those who must forecast macroeconomic variables such as inflation or employment. A key aspect of this challenge is evaluating the incoming flow of information contained in economic announcements. In this article, the authors develop a simple-to-read index of these announcements that they then use to construct nowcasts. The index tracks whether key economic data have come in stronger, weaker, or as expected during the current quarter relative to a baseline consensus forecast. Specifically, the data releases are weighted ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 4 , Pages 277-296

Journal Article
The 1990s acceleration in labor productivity: causes and measurement

The acceleration of labor productivity growth that began during the mid-1990s is the defining economic event of the past decade. A consensus has arisen among economists that the acceleration was caused by technological innovations that decreased the quality-adjusted prices of semiconductors and related information and communications technology (ICT) products, including digital computers. In sharp contrast to the previous 20 years, services-producing sectors-heavy users of ICT products-led the productivity increase, besting even a robust manufacturing sector. In this article, the authors ...
Review , Volume 88 , Issue May , Pages 181-202

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Memphis zone

Burgundy Books , Issue 2Q

Journal Article
Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise

Some analysts and economists recently warned that the U.S. economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the U.S. economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a ...
Review , Volume 90 , Issue Sep

Working Paper
FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications

We construct a real-time dataset (FRED-SD) with vintage data for the U.S. states that can be used to forecast both state-level and national-level variables. Our dataset includes approximately 28 variables per state, including labor market, production, and housing variables. We conduct two sets of real-time forecasting exercises. The first forecasts state-level labor-market variables using five different models and different levels of industrially-disaggregated data. The second forecasts a national-level variable exploiting the cross-section of state data. The state-forecasting experiments ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-031

Journal Article
A Report on Economic Conditions in the Memphis Zone

Burgundy Books , Issue 1Q

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Little Rock zone

Burgundy Books , Issue 4Q

Journal Article
Below-trend growth is predicted for most of 2007

The Regional Economist , Issue Jan , Pages 18

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