Mapping the U.S. Production Network: Identifying Hub Industries
Identifying key suppliers and buyers could help identify the cause of certain economic downturns.
U.S. States Hit the Hardest by COVID-19 Have Lower Unemployment Risks
States with relatively more COVID-19 cases tend to have a workforce less likely to face unemployment.
Industry Connectivity: A Case Study of the Construction Industry
Industries most related to the construction industry were hit harder by the Great Recession.
60% of District's Jobs Could Face Automation in the Next 20 Years
Jobs in the St. Louis Fed?s District face a higher risk of automation than do jobs nation-wide. Smaller MSAs in the District will face bigger impact.
Construction’s Impact on Other Industries during the Great Recession
Industries that trade heavily with the construction industry were hit sooner and harder by the Great Recession than those that don’t.
Markup Cyclicality: A Tale of Two Models
Many models in the business cycle literature generate counter-cyclical price markups. This paper examines if the prominent models in the literature are consistent with the empirical findings of micro-level markup behavior in Hong (2016). In particular, I test the markup behavior of the following two models: (i) an oligopolistic competition model, and (ii) a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous price stickiness. First, I explore the Atkeson and Burstein (2008) model of oligopolistic competition, in which markups are an increasing function of firm market shares. Coupled with an exogenous ...
Capital Gains Taxation and Investment Dynamics
This paper quantifies the long-run effects of reducing capital gains taxes on aggregate investment. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms, which face discrete capital gains tax rates based on firm size. We calibrate our model by targeting micro moments and a difference-in-differences estimate of the capital stock response based on the institutional setting and policy reform in Korea. We find that the reform that reduced the capital gains tax rates for a subset of firms substantially increased investment in the short run, and capturing general equilibrium ...
Factors Behind the Decline in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest
Longer lives and fewer babies have contributed to a lower natural rate of interest.
The Impact of Automation on Inequality
Occupations with large employment and low income have a higher automation probability.
Startups Account for Smaller Share of U.S. Jobs
Since 1994, startup firms have seen their share of U.S. employment shrink.