The baby boom and baby bust: some macroeconomics for population economics
What caused the baby boom? And, can it be explained within the context of the secular decline in fertility that has occurred over the last 200 years? The hypothesis is that: (i) The secular decline in fertility is due to the relentless rise in real wages that increased the opportunity cost of having children. (ii) The baby boom is explained by an atypical burst of technological progress in the household sector that occurred in the middle of the last century. This lowered the cost of having children. A model is developed in an attempt to account, quantitatively, for both the baby boom and bust.
The Third Industrial Revolution
The author examines periods of rapid technological change for coincidences of widening inequality and slowing productivity growth. He contends that while the introduction of technologies offers profits to investors and premiums for skilled workers, in the long run the rising tide of technological change lifts everybody's boat.
Venture Capital: A Catalyst for Innovation and Growth
This article studies the development of the venture capital (VC) industry in the United States and assesses how VC financing affects firm innovation and growth. The results highlight the essential role of VC financing for U.S. innovation and growth and suggest that VC development in other countries could promote their economic growth.
The cyclical behavior of job creation and job destruction: a sectoral model
Three key features of the employment process in the U.S. economy are that job creation is procyclical, job destruction is countercyclical, and job creation is less volatile than job destruction. These features are also found at the sectoral (goods and services) level. The paper develops, calibrates, and simulates a two sector general equilibrium model including both aggregate and sectoral shocks. The behavior of the model economy mimics the job creation and destruction facts. Sectoral shocks play a significant role in determining the aggregate level of nonemployment.
Putting home economics into macroeconomics
The implications of adding household production to an otherwise standard real business cycle model are explored in this article. The model developed treats the business and household sectors symmetrically. In particular, both sectors use capital and labor to produce output. The article finds that the household production model can outperform the standard model in accounting for several aspects of U.S. business cycle fluctuations. ; This article is a summary of a chapter prepared for a forthcoming book, Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, edited by Thomas F. Cooley, to be published by ...
Family Economics Writ Large
Powerful currents have reshaped the structure of families over the last century. There has been (i) a dramatic drop in fertility and greater parental investment in children; (ii) a rise in married female labor-force participation; (iii) a significant decline in marriage and a rise in divorce; (iv) a higher degree of positive assortative mating; (v) more children living with a single mother; (vi) shifts in social norms governing premarital sex and married women's roles in the workplace. Macroeconomic models explaining these aggregate trends are surveyed. The relent-less flow of technological ...
Financing development : the role of information costs
To address how technological progress in financial intermediation affects the economy, a costly-state verification framework is embedded into the standard growth model. The framework has two novel features. First, firms differ in the risk/return combinations that they offer. Second, the efficacy of monitoring depends upon the amount of resources invested in the activity. A financial theory of firm size results. Undeserving firms are over financed, deserving ones underfunded. Technological advance in intermediation leads to more capital accumulation and a redirection of funds away from ...
Measuring the rate of technological progress in structures
An effort to measure technological progress in structures by using panel data on the age and rents of buildings in a vintage capital model, where buildings are replaced at some chosen periodicity. It finds that there has been significant technological advance in structures, which accounts for a major part of economic growth.
The replacement problem
We construct a vintage capital model of economic growth in which the decision to replace old technologies with new ones is modeled explicitly. Depreciation in this environment is an economic, not a physical concept. We describe the balanced growth paths and the transitional dynamics of this economy. We illustrate the importance of vintage capital by analyzing the response of the economy to fiscal policies designed to stimulate investment in new technologies.