Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 40.

(refine search)
SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Author:Fujita, Shigeru 

Working Paper
Declining labor turnover and turbulence

Superseded by 18-06. The purpose of this paper is to identify possible sources of the secular decline in the job separation rate over the past four decades. I use a simple labor matching model with two types of workers, experienced and inexperienced, where the former type faces a risk of skill loss during unemployment. When the skill loss occurs, the worker is required to restart his career and thus suffers a drop in his wage. I show that a higher risk of skill loss results in a lower separation rate. The key mechanism is that the experienced workers accept lower wages in exchange for keeping ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-29

Working Paper
Private equity premium in a general equilibrium model of uninsurable investment risk

This paper studies the quantitative properties of a general equilibrium model where a continuum of heterogeneous entrepreneurs are subject to aggregate as well as idiosyncratic risks in the presence of a borrowing constraint. The calibrated model matches the highly skewed wealth and income distributions of entrepreneurs. The authors provide an accurate solution to the model despite the significant nonlinearities that are absent in the economy with uninsurable labor income risk. The model is capable of generating the average private equity premium of roughly 3 percent and a low risk-free rate. ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-18

Working Paper
Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?

This paper reexamines the forecasting ability of Phillips curves from both an unconditional and conditional perspective by applying the method developed by Giacomini and White (2006). We find that forecasts from our Phillips curve models tend to be unconditionally inferior to those from our univariate forecasting models. Significantly, we also find conditional inferiority, with some exceptions. When we do find improvement, it is asymmetric - Phillips curve forecasts tend to be more accurate when the economy is weak and less accurate when the economy is strong. Any improvement we find, ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-26

Working Paper
The cyclicality of separation and job finding rates

This paper uses CPS gross flow data, adjusted for margin error and time aggregation error, to analyze the business cycle dynamics of separation and job finding rates and to quantify their contributions to overall unemployment variability. Cyclical changes in the separation rate lead those of unemployment, while the job finding rate and unemployment move contemporaneously. Fluctuations in the separation rate explain between 40 and 50 percent of fluctuations in unemployment, depending on how the data are detrended. The authors results suggest an important role for the separation rate in ...
Working Papers , Paper 07-19

Working Paper
Declining labor turnover and turbulence

Superseded by Working Paper 15-29 The purpose of this paper is to identify possible sources of the secular decline in the aggregate job separation rate over the last three decades. The author first shows that aging of the labor force alone cannot account for the entire decline. To explore other sources, he uses a simple labor matching model with two types of workers, experienced and inexperienced, where the former type faces a risk of skill obsolescence during unemployment. When the skill depreciation occurs, the worker is required to restart his career and thus suffers a drop in earnings. ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-44

Journal Article
Earnings losses of job losers during the 2001 economic downturn

Job losses may involve not only lost earnings during unemployment but also declines in earnings at subsequent jobs. After a time consuming job search, workers may need to restart their careers from scratch, accepting a lower wage. Workers may also need time to acquire new skills, and total earnings lost during such a period of re-adjustment can be considerable. But experiences may vary widely. In this article, using a novel data set, Shigeru Fujita and Vilas Rao provide evidence on earnings losses after unemployment. Although the usefulness of the evidence is limited by the short sample ...
Business Review , Issue Q4 , Pages 1-9

Briefing
Reopening the Economy: What Are the Risks, and What Have States Done?

The process of reopening economies battered by the COVID-19 pandemic has been the subject of considerable deliberation in recent months. It is generally agreed that accurate and timely monitoring of the pace of coronavirus spread is of the utmost importance in managing reopening. In addition, the discussion of reopening has often been framed by an assess-ment of the health risks posed by each economic sector. Some sectors, for example, involve especially close and protracted interaction among customers and employees, which can facilitate COVID-19 transmission. Accordingly, the sequence ...
Research Brief

Journal Article
Where Is Everybody? The Shrinking Labor Force Participation Rate

More Americans are neither working nor looking for work. What is going on?
Economic Insights , Volume 2 , Issue 4 , Pages 17-24

Working Paper
An empirical analysis of on-the-job search and job-to-job transitions

This paper provides a set of simple, yet overlooked, facts regarding on-the-job search and job-to-job transitions using the UK Labour Force Survey (LFS). The LFS is unique in that it asks employed workers whether they search on the job and, if so, why. The author finds that workers search on the job for very different reasons, which lead to different outcomes in both mobility and wage growth. A nontrivial fraction of workers engage in on-the-job search due to a fear of losing their job. This group mimics many known features of unemployed workers, such as wage losses upon finding a job. ...
Working Papers , Paper 10-34

Working Paper
The cyclicality of worker flows: new evidence from the SIPP

Drawing on CPS data, the authors show that total monthly job loss and hiring among U.S. workers, as well as job loss hazard rates, are strongly countercyclical, while job finding hazard rates are strongly procyclical. They also find that total job loss and job loss hazard rates lead the business cycle, while total hiring and job finding rates trail the cycle. In the current paper the authors use information from the Survey on Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to reevaluate these findings. SIPP data are used to construct new longitudinally consistent gross flow series for U.S. workers, ...
Working Papers , Paper 07-5

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Jel Classification

E24 9 items

J64 7 items

E32 4 items

C53 2 items

E37 2 items

E31 1 items

show more (5)

FILTER BY Keywords

PREVIOUS / NEXT