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Author:Fujita, Shigeru 

Working Paper
Measuring Employer-to-Employer Reallocation

We revisit the measurement of Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions in the monthly Current Population Survey. We detect sharp increases in the incidence of missing answers to the relevant question starting in 2007, when the U.S. Census Bureau introduced the Respondent Identification Policy. We show evidence of non response selection by both observable and unobservable worker characteristics that correlate with EE mobility. We propose a selection model and aprocedure to impute missing answers, thus EE transitions. Our imputed EE aggregate series restores a close congruence with the business ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-22

Working Paper
Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach

This paper establishes robust dynamic features of the worker reallocation process in the U.S. labor market. The author uses structural VARs with sign restrictions, which take the form of restricting the short-run negative relationship between vacancies and unemployment (i.e., Beveridge curve). Despite the "weakness" of these restrictions, they reveal a clear, unambiguous pattern that when unemployment increases and vacancies drop, (i) both the separation rate and gross separations rise quickly and remain persistently high, (ii) the job finding rate and vacancies drop in a hump-shaped ...
Working Papers , Paper 07-12

Working Paper
Worker flows and job flows: a quantitative investigation

This paper studies quantitative properties of a multiple-worker firm search/matching model and investigates how worker transition rates and job flow rates are interrelated. We show that allowing for job-to-job transitions in the model is essential to simultaneously account for the cyclical features of worker transition rates and job flow rates. Important to this result are the distinctions between the job creation rate and the hiring rate and between the job destruction rate and the layoff rate. In the model without job-to-job transitions, these distinctions essentially disappear, thus making ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-3

Working Paper
Worker flows and job flows: a quantitative investigation

This paper studies the quantitative properties of a multiple-worker firm matching model with on-the-job search where heterogeneous firms operate decreasing-returns-to-scale production technology. We focus on the model's ability to replicate the business cycle features of job flows, worker flows between employment and unemployment, and job-to-job transitions. The calibrated model successfully replicates (i) countercyclical worker flows between employment and unemployment, (ii) procyclical job-to-job transitions, and (iii) opposite movements of job creation and destruction rates over the ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-09

Working Paper
Elasticities of Labor Supply and Labor Force Participation Flows

REVISED MARCH 2019 Using a representative-household search and matching model with endogenous labor force participation, we study the interactions between extensive-margin labor supply elasticities and the cyclicality of labor force participation flows. Our model successfully replicates salient business-cycle features of all transition rates between three labor market states, the unemployment rate, and the labor force participation rate, while using values of elasticities consistent with micro evidence. Our results underscore the importance of the procyclical opportunity cost of employment, ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-3

Working Paper
Effects of extended unemployment insurance benefits: evidence from the monthly CPS

This paper attempts to quantify the effects of extended unemployment insurance benefits in recent years. Using the monthly Current Population Survey, I estimate unemployment-to-employment (UE) hazard function and unemployment-to-inactivity (UN) hazard function for male workers. The estimated hazard functions for the period of 2004-2007, during which no extended benefits were available, exhibit patterns consistent with the expiration of regular benefits at 26 weeks. These patterns largely disappear from the hazard functions for the period of 2009-2010, during which largescale extended benefits ...
Working Papers , Paper 10-35

Journal Article
What do worker flows tell us about cyclical fluctuations in employment?

Many official surveys give us important information about labor markets and unemployment, as well as other statistics. However, these surveys reveal only the net gains or losses in employment over a given period. Consequently, how many gross hires and separations lie behind the net changes is missing from these statistical releases. Data on gross flows turn up additional valuable information. In ?What Do Worker Flows Tell Us About Cyclical Fluctuations in Employment?,? Shigeru Fujita uses such data to examine cyclical changes in the pace of the worker reallocation process and its effects on ...
Business Review , Issue Q2 , Pages 1-10

Working Paper
Reassessing the Shimer facts

In a recent influential paper, Shimer uses CPS duration and gross flow data to draw two conclusions: (1) separation rates are nearly acyclic; and (2) separation rates contribute little to the variability of unemployment. In this paper the authors assert that Shimer's analysis is problematic, for two reasons: (1) cyclicality is not evaluated systematically; and (2) the measured contributions to unemployment variability do not actually decompose total unemployment variability. The authors address these problems by applying a standard statistical measure of business cycle comovement, and ...
Working Papers , Paper 07-2

Working Paper
Private equity premium in a general equilibrium model of uninsurable investment risk

This paper studies the quantitative properties of a general equilibrium model where a continuum of heterogeneous entrepreneurs are subject to aggregate as well as idiosyncratic risks in the presence of a borrowing constraint. The calibrated model matches the highly skewed wealth and income distributions of entrepreneurs. The authors provide an accurate solution to the model despite the significant nonlinearities that are absent in the economy with uninsurable labor income risk. The model is capable of generating the average private equity premium of roughly 3 percent and a low risk-free rate. ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-18

Journal Article
Creative destruction and aggregate productivity growth

Productivity growth is the engine of economic growth and is responsible for rising standards of living. But all firms do not partake equally in the nation's productivity growth. Rather, according to economist Joseph Schumpeter's theory, firms undergo a process of "creative destruction": New firms that adapt to new knowledge cause the decline and eventual demise of incumbent firms. In "Creative Destruction and Aggregate Productivity Growth," Shigeru Fujita surveys recent studies that examine the role of creative destruction in aggregate productivity growth.
Business Review , Issue Q3 , Pages 12-20

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