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Discussion Paper
High tech business entry in the pandemic era
Decker, Ryan A.; Haltiwanger, John (2024-04-19)
The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath have featured a surge in business entry (Decker and Haltiwanger 2024). A natural question is whether the elevated entry seen in recent years will have positive implications for aggregate productivity growth given the historically important role of business entry for productivity dynamics (Decker et al. 2014, Alon et al. 2018).
FEDS Notes , Paper 2024-04-19-1

Working Paper
Market exposure and endogenous firm volatility over the business cycle
D'Erasmo, Pablo; Moscoso Boedo, Herman J.; Decker, Ryan A. (2014-03-24)
First Draft: November 1, 2011 We propose a theory of endogenous firm-level volatility over the business cycle based on endogenous market exposure. Firms that reach a larger number of markets diversify market-specific demand risk at a cost. The model is driven only by total factor productivity shocks and captures the business cycle properties of firm-level volatility. Using a panel of U.S. firms (Compustat), we empirically document the countercyclical nature of firm-level volatility. We then match this panel to Compustat?s Segment data and the U.S. Census?s Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-12

Working Paper
Using Payroll Processor Microdata to Measure Aggregate Labor Market Activity
Radler, Tyler; Kurz, Christopher J.; Decker, Ryan A.; Crane, Leland D.; Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian; Cajner, Tomaz (2018-01-17)
We show that high-frequency private payroll microdata can help forecast labor market conditions. Payroll employment is perhaps the most reliable real-time indicator of the business cycle and is therefore closely followed by policymakers, academia, and financial markets. Government statistical agencies have long served as the primary suppliers of information on the labor market and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. That said, sources of ?big data? are becoming increasingly available through collaborations with private businesses engaged in commercial activities that record ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-005

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