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Working Paper
A different kind of money illusion: the case of long and variable lags
An analysis of how the money supply process can affect the cross-covariance structure of inflation and monetary growth, showing that the Federal Reserve's change in emphasis to monetary targeting in late 1979 could have made the apparently long lag from money growth to inflation virtually disappear in the 1980s.
Journal Article
The consumer price index and national saving
An argument that lowering COLAs for Social Security benefits and adjusting the Consumer Price Index to better reflect the cost-of-living increases that result from inflation will alleviate two long-range problems: escalating federal budget deficits and exceedingly low national saving.
Journal Article
Views from the Ohio manufacturing index
An introduction to the experimental Ohio Manufacturing Index and a brief examination of the recent patterns of manufacturing growth occurring in the state.
Journal Article
Comparing inflation expectations of households and economists: is a little knowledge a dangerous thing?
A comparison of the performance of forecasts by economists (the Livingston survey), households (the Michigan Survey of Consumer Finances), and a time series model (ARIMA).
Journal Article
The demographics of inflation opinion surveys
In this Commentary, we document that people report very different perceptions and predictions of inflation depending upon their income, education, age, race, and gender ? a strange finding that may provide an important clue to understanding how to interpret survey data of inflation expectations.
Journal Article
Voluntary export restraints: the cost of building walls
An illustration of the cost and employment effects of Japanese voluntary export restraints on new-car imports to the U.S.
Working Paper
The inflation expectations of firms: what do they look like, are they accurate, and do they matter?
The purpose of this paper is to answer the three questions in the title. Using a large monthly survey of businesses, we investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations are very similar to the predictions of professional forecasters for national inflation statistics, despite a somewhat greater heterogeneity of expectations that we attribute to the idiosyncratic cost structure firms face. We also show that firm inflation expectations bear little in common with the ?prices in general? expectations reported by ...
Journal Article
Will taxing imports help?
An examination of the possible impact on U.S. consumers and producers of placing an across-the-board tariff surcharge on imported goods.
Journal Article
The business cycle, investment and a wayward M2: a midyear review
A summary of the June 12, 1992 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which 22 panelists concurred that steady and moderate growth in the economy can be expected through late 1993; includes discussions on business fixed investment, monetary growth, and business cycle theory.
Journal Article
Median price changes: an alternative approach to measuring current monetary inflation
An analysis concluding that inflation measures based on median price changes are a better indicator than measures based on mean price changes.