Can conventional theory explain the unconventional recovery?
An argument that the sluggishness of the current economic recovery reflects a permanent, structural change in the economy that may not be easily addressed using the standard monetary/fiscal incentives called for in the conventional view of business cycles, and that structural adjustment is a critical component of all economic fluctuations.
The consumer price index as a measure of inflation
An estimation of a price index that is immune to some of the weighting biases that can hinder the use of the Consumer Price Index as a reliable measure of inflation.
American automobile manufacturing: it's turning Japanese
A discussion of the movement of Japanese auto production facilities to the United States, with emphasis on conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District and on growth of the just-in-time inventory supply process.
The business cycle, investment and a wayward M2: a midyear review
A summary of the June 12, 1992 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which 22 panelists concurred that steady and moderate growth in the economy can be expected through late 1993; includes discussions on business fixed investment, monetary growth, and business cycle theory.
Fear and loathing of central banks in America
The Federal Reserve System is America?s uneasy compromise between our dislike of concentrated financial power and our desire to promote efficiency in our national payments system. In fact, the Federal Reserve is the nation?s third attempt to establish a large national bank?what we now call a central bank?that is in a unique position to influence a nation?s money and credit. This Commentary retells the story of the rise and fall of the two earlier national banks, the Banks of the United States.
You might not have heard of the trime, the tiny 3-cent silver coin minted in the United States from 1851 to 1873, but it may have played a big role in shaping the kind of money you carry around in your wallet today.
The financial distress in American farming
An analysis of the uneven distribution of problem debt among the nation' s farmers, a discussion of the effect of this debt on agricultural banks, and an estimate of the probable impact of farm debt problems on the nation.
Views from the Ohio manufacturing index
An introduction to the experimental Ohio Manufacturing Index and a brief examination of the recent patterns of manufacturing growth occurring in the state.
Mirror, mirror, who’s the best forecaster of them all?
Say you need an accurate forecast of future GDP or inflation. What?s your best bet?the economist who was hot last year or the forecaster in the middle? The record indicates it?s tough to consistently beat the median prediction.
Issues in the 1983 auto-sales outlook
An analysis of the changing auto market and of factors affecting sales ( such as consumer income, costs, sticker shock, and affordability), plus a discussion of expectations of 1983 sales.