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Discussion Paper
Is the Green Transition Inflationary?
Del Negro, Marco; di Giovanni, Julian; Dogra, Keshav (2023-02-14)
Are policies aimed at fighting climate change inflationary? In a new staff report we use a simple model to argue that this does not have to be the case. The model suggests that climate policies do not force a central bank to tolerate higher inflation but may generate a trade-off between inflation and employment objectives. The presence and size of this trade-off depends on how flexible prices are in the “dirty” and “green” sectors relative to the rest of the economy, and on whether climate policies consist of taxes or subsidies.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230214

Report
Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation
di Giovanni, Julian; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Silva, Alvaro; Yildirim, Muhammed A. (2022-07-01)
We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on euro area inflation and how it compares to the experiences of other countries, such as the United States, over the two-year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: (1) compositional effects, or the switch from services to goods consumption, are amplified through global input-output linkages, affecting both trade and inflation; (2) inflation can be higher under sector-specific labor shortages relative to a scenario with no such supply shocks; (3) foreign shocks and global supply chain bottlenecks played an ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1024

Report
Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations
di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Mejean, Isabelle (2020-11-01)
This paper uses a data set covering the universe of French firm-level sales, imports, and exports over the period 1993-2007 and a quantitative multi-country model to study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and the macro levels. The largest firms are both important enough to generate aggregate fluctuations (Gabaix 2011), and most likely to be internationally connected. This implies that foreign shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy primarily through the largest firms. We first document a novel stylized fact: larger French firms are significantly ...
Staff Reports , Paper 947

Working Paper
The global welfare impact of China: trade integration and technological change
Levchenko, Andrei A.; Zhang, Jing; di Giovanni, Julian (2013)
This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a quantitative Ric a rdian-Heckscher-Ohlin model implemented on 75 countries. We simulate two alternative productivity growth scenarios: a balanced one in which China's productivity grows at the sam e rate in each sector, and an unbalanced one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004), the large majority of countries in the sample, including the developed ones, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-08

Report
Buy Big or Buy Small? Procurement Policies, Firms' Financing, and the Macroeconomy
di Giovanni, Julian; Pijoan-Mas, Josep; García-Santana, Manuel; Jeenas, Priit; Moral-Benito, Enrique (2022-02-01)
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of public procurement. We exploit novel data to show that procurement eases firms’ borrowing constraints and has persistent effects on firm growth. Using a macroeconomic model with heterogeneous firms, asset- and earnings-based borrowing frictions, and government purchasing, we simulate revenue-neutral reforms that increase the share of small firms in procurement. We find that, despite helping financially constrained firms grow, these policies lead to non-trivial unintended negative effects. On net, the policies lead to a modest decline in GDP. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1006

Report
The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
Benigno, Gianluca; di Giovanni, Julian; Groen, Jan J. J.; Noble, Adam I. (2022-05-01)
We propose a novel indicator to capture pressures that arise at the global supply chain level, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The GSCPI provides a new monitoring tool to gauge global supply chain conditions. We assess the index’s capacity to explain inflation outcomes, using the local projection method. Our analysis shows that recent inflationary pressures are closely related to the behavior of the GSCPI, especially at the level of producer price inflation in the United States and the euro area.
Staff Reports , Paper 1017

Discussion Paper
A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
Noble, Adam I.; Benigno, Gianluca; Groen, Jan J. J.; di Giovanni, Julian (2022-01-04)
Supply chain disruptions have become a major challenge for the global economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Factory shutdowns (particularly in Asia) and widespread lockdowns and mobility restrictions have resulted in disruptions across logistics networks, increases in shipping costs, and longer delivery times. Several measures have been used to gauge these disruptions, although those measures tend to focus on selected dimensions of global supply chains. In this post, we propose a new gauge, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), which integrates a number of commonly used ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220104

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