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Report
Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers
Silva, Alvaro; Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem; Yildirim, Muhammed A.; di Giovanni, Julian (2023-11-01)
We estimate a multi-country, multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–23 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/EUR exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1080

Discussion Paper
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: May 2022 Update
Benigno, Gianluca; di Giovanni, Julian; Groen, Jan J. J.; Noble, Adam I. (2022-05-18)
Supply chain disruptions continue to be a major challenge as the world economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, recent developments related to geopolitics and the pandemic (particularly in China) could put further strains on global supply chains. In a January post, we first presented the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), a parsimonious global measure designed to capture supply chain disruptions using a range of indicators. We revisited our index in March, and today we are launching the GSCPI as a standalone product, with new readings to be published each month. In ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220518

Working Paper
Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
Minoiu, Camelia; Goldberg, Linda S.; Correa, Ricardo; di Giovanni, Julian (2024-10-18)
This paper uses U.S. credit register data and the 2018–19 Trade War to study the effects of uncertainty on domestic credit supply. Exploiting differences in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty, we find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across their customer firms. This result is consistent with banks responding to uncertainty with wait-and-see behaviors, where more exposed banks curtail risky exposures, reduce loan maturities, and adjust loan supply along both intensive and extensive margins. The lending contraction is larger for more ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2024-16

Discussion Paper
The International Spillover of U.S. Monetary Policy via Global Production Linkages
di Giovanni, Julian (2021-01-06)
The recent era of globalization has witnessed growing cross-country trade integration as firms’ production chains have spread across the world, and with stock market returns becoming more correlated across countries. While research has predominantly focused on how financial integration impacts the propagation of shocks across international financial markets, trade also influences these cross-border spillovers. In particular, one important aspect, highlighted by the recent work of di Giovanni and Hale (2020), is how the global production network influences the transmission of U.S. monetary ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210106

Discussion Paper
A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
Noble, Adam I.; Benigno, Gianluca; Groen, Jan J. J.; di Giovanni, Julian (2022-01-04)
Supply chain disruptions have become a major challenge for the global economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Factory shutdowns (particularly in Asia) and widespread lockdowns and mobility restrictions have resulted in disruptions across logistics networks, increases in shipping costs, and longer delivery times. Several measures have been used to gauge these disruptions, although those measures tend to focus on selected dimensions of global supply chains. In this post, we propose a new gauge, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), which integrates a number of commonly used ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220104

Discussion Paper
Flood-Prone Basement Housing in New York City and the Impact on Low- and Moderate-Income Renters
Kramer, Claire; Nair, Ambika; di Giovanni, Julian (2023-11-17)
Hurricane Ida, which struck New York in early September 2021, exposed the region’s vulnerability to extreme rainfall and inland flooding. The storm created massive damage to the housing stock, particularly low-lying units. This post measures the storm’s impact on basement housing stock and, following the focus on more-at-risk populations from the two previous entries in this series, analyzes the attendant impact on low-income and immigrant populations. We find that basements in select census tracts are at high risk of flooding, affecting an estimated 10 percent of low-income and immigrant ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231117

Report
Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus under Supply Constraints
di Giovanni, Julian; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Silva, Alvaro; Yildirim, Muhammed A. (2023-02-01)
This paper builds on Baqaee and Farhi (2022) and di Giovanni et al. (2022) to quantify thecontribution of fiscal policy to U.S. inflation over the December 2019-June 2022 period. Modelcalibrations show that aggregate demand shocks explain roughly two-thirds of total model-basedinflation, and that the fiscal stimulus contributed half or more of the total aggregate demand effect.
Staff Reports , Paper 1050

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