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Journal Article
Macroprudential policy: a case study from a tabletop exercise
Since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, policymakers and academics have advocated the use of prudential policy tools to reduce the risks that could inhibit the financial sector?s ability to intermediate credit. The use of such tools in the service of financial stability is often called macroprudential policy. This article describes a ?tabletop? exercise in which Federal Reserve Bank presidents were presented with a hypothetical scenario of overheating markets and asked to consider the effectiveness of macroprudential policy approaches in averting or moderating the financial disruptions ...
Discussion Paper
Supply Chain Risk and Bank Lending Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty
During times of increased trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions can be an important source of instability. Due to the interconnected nature of modern economies, problems in one market can often ripple across others, triggering logistical bottlenecks and longer delivery times.
Working Paper
International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?
We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs), covering the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and seven other episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in relatively early and persisted through this episode. (3) During ...
Working Paper
International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?
We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis covers the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and six earlier episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in quite early and persisted throughout this episode. ...
Working Paper
Offshore production and business cycle dynamics with heterogeneous firms
Cross-country variation in production costs encourages the relocation of production facilities to other countries, a process known as offshoring through vertical foreign direct investment. I examine the effect of offshoring on the international transmission of business cycles. Unlike the existing macroeconomic literature, I distinguish between fluctuations in the number of offshoring firms (the extensive margin) and in the value added per offshoring firm (the intensive margin) as separate transmission mechanisms. The firms' decision to produce offshore depends on the firm-specific level of ...
Working Paper
Liquidity Shocks, Dollar Funding Costs, and the Bank Lending Channel during the European Sovereign Crisis
This paper documents a new type of cross-border bank lending channel using a novel dataset on the balance sheets of U.S. branches of foreign banks and their syndicated loans. We show that: (1) The U.S. branches of euro-area banks suffered a liquidity shock in the form of reduced access to large time deposits during the European sovereign debt crisis in 2011. The shock was related to their euro-area affiliation rather than to country- or bank-specific characteristics. (2) The affected branches received additional funding from their parent banks, but not enough to offset the lost deposits. (3) ...
Working Paper
Offshoring, Low-skilled Immigration, and Labor Market Polarization
During the last three decades, the U.S. labor market has been characterized by its employment polarization. As jobs in the middle of the skill distribution have shrunk, employment has expanded in high- and low-skill occupations. Real wages have not followed the same pattern. While earnings for high-skill occupations have risen robustly, wages for both low- and middle-skill workers have remained subdued. We attribute this outcome to the rise in offshoring and low-skilled immigration, and develop a three-country stochastic growth model to rationalize their asymmetric effect on employment and ...
Working Paper
Slowdown in Immigration, Labor Shortages, and Declining Skill Premia
We document a slowdown in low-skilled immigration that began around the onset of the Great Recession in 2007, which was associated with a subsequent rise in low-skilled wages, a decline in the skill premium, and labor shortages in service occupations. Falling returns to education also coincided with a decline in the educational attainment of native workers. We then develop and estimate a stochastic growth model with endogenous immigration and training to rationalize these facts. Lower immigration leads to higher wages for low-skilled workers but also to higher consumer prices and lower ...
Working Paper
Bank Deposit Flows to Money Market Funds and ON RRP Usage during Monetary Policy Tightening
Using the historical experience from past monetary tightening cycles and the market-expected path of the federal funds rate for the current tightening cycle, we project that the flows from bank deposits to money market funds (MMFs) would be relatively small, at about $600 billion through the end of 2024, or about 3 percent of current bank deposits. Of these potential inflows to MMFs, about $100 billion are projected to flow into the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) facility, or about 7 percent of MMFs’ recent take-up. Other factors such as the private demand for repo funding and the ...
Working Paper
The Global Financial Cycle and Capital Flows During the COVID-19 Pandemic
We estimate the heterogeneous effect of the global financial cycle on exchange rates and cross-border capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic, using weekly exchange rate and portfolio flow data for a panel of 59 advanced and emerging market economies. We begin by estimating a global financial cycle (GFC) index at the weekly frequency with data through the end of 2021, and observe an outsized decline in the index over a period of just four weeks during February and March 2020. We then estimate the country-specific sensitivities of exchange rates and capital flows to fluctuations in the GFC. ...