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Surging House Prices Expected to Propel Rent Increases, Push Up Inflation
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Dolmas, Jim (2021-08-24)
The inflation rates of rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER)—the amount of rent equivalent to the cost of ownership—have declined sharply since the COVID-19 pandemic began in February 2020. However, we expect rent inflation and OER inflation to accelerate in the years to come.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Mortgage Borrowing and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment
Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-03-24)
This paper studies the transmission of the major shocks in the U.S. housing market in the 2000s to consumption and residential investment. Using geographically disaggregated data, I show that residential investment is more responsive to these shocks than consumption, as measured by elasticities and the implied contributions to GDP growth. I develop a structural life-cycle model featuring multiple types of housing investment to understand the large responses of residential investment. Consistent with the microdata, the model generates lumpy debt accumulation, lumpy housing investment and a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2103

A New View of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2020-09-22)
It has been considered self-evident until recently that oil prices drive inflation expectations, but new evidence calls into question this conclusion.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Kilian, Lutz (2020-03-06)
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between alternative oil market models, let alone the basis for the sometimes divergent conclusions reached in the literature. The purpose of this survey is to provide a guide to this literature. Our focus is on the econometric foundations of the analysis of oil market models with special attention to the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2006

Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Hur, Sewon; Mau, Ron; Mertens, Karel; Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2024-10-01)
The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2407

Working Paper
FinTech Lending, Social Networks and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
Zhou, Xiaoqing (2022-03-25)
One of the main channels through which monetary policy stimulus affects the real economy is mortgage borrowing. This channel, however, is weakened by frictions in the mortgage market. The rapid growth of financial technology-based (FinTech) lending tends to ease these frictions, given the higher quality services provided under this new lending model. This paper establishes that the role of FinTech lending in the monetary policy transmission is further amplified by consumers’ social networks. I provide empirical evidence for this network effect using county-level data and novel ...
Working Papers , Paper 2203

Lower interest rates don’t necessarily improve housing affordability
Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2024-04-02)
The direct impact of higher mortgage rates on housing affordability has received much attention. We emphasize that housing affordability not only depends on mortgage rates but also on house prices, which have competing effects.
Dallas Fed Economics

Limited Impact of Rising Energy Prices on U.S. Inflation, Inflation Expectations in 2020–23
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-11-23)
Predictions of $100 per barrel oil during the coming winter have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. However, quantitative analysis suggests that these concerns have been overstated.
Dallas Fed Economics

Gasoline Demand More Responsive to Price Changes than Economists Once Thought
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2020-06-16)
Recent advances in applied work have overturned decades of conventional wisdom regarding how consumers respond to gasoline price fluctuations.
Dallas Fed Economics

Inflation in Services Likely to Rise Further Despite Slowing Goods Prices
Atkinson, Tyler; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2022-09-06)
Given rising demand for in-person services, the slow pass-through of surging house prices to rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER), and higher health care worker wages, services inflation is likely to increase further.
Dallas Fed Economics

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