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Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Hur, Sewon; Mau, Ron; Mertens, Karel; Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2024-10-01)
The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2407

Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
Orrenius, Pia M.; Ozor, Grace; Zavodny, Madeline; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2025-07-08)
Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth. Estimates based on historical data and a structural vector autoregression model suggest gross domestic product growth in 2025 is 0.75 to 1 percentage points lower than in a benchmark simulation using the Congressional Budget Office’s immigration projections through November 2024.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks
Zhou, Xiaoqing (2023-02-14)
Financial technology-based (FinTech) lending is expected to ease U.S. mortgage market frictions that have weakened the transmission of monetary policy to households. This paper establishes that social networks play a key role in consumers’ adoption of FinTech lending, which amplifies the effects of a monetary stimulus. I provide causal estimates of the network effect on FinTech adoption using county-level data. To quantify the role of FinTech lending and network spillovers in the transmission of monetary policy shocks, I build a heterogeneous-agent model with social learning. The model ...
Working Papers , Paper 2203

CARES Act Likely to Blunt Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increase
Zhou, Xiaoqing (2020-05-26)
Household survey data and recent unemployment forecasts provide a basis for estimating the share of mortgage borrowers that—absent the CARES Act—would have missed a mortgage payment due to the economic shutdown.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2019-12-20)
We study the efficacy of releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for storage demand as well as unanticipated changes in the SPR. Using novel identifying strategies and evaluation methods, we examine seven questions. First, how much have exogenous shocks to the SPR contributed to the variability in the real price of oil? Second, how much would a one-time exogenous reduction in the SPR lower the real price of oil? Third, are exogenous SPR releases partially or fully offset by increases ...
Working Papers , Paper 1916

U.S. 30-Year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Sagnanert, Pon (2024-01-16)
After comparing economic data of the U.S. and other major advanced economies, we find tentative evidence that the slow adjustment of the outstanding mortgage rate in the U.S. has not played an important role in delaying the intended effects of the monetary tightening.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Wealth Inequality and Return Heterogeneity During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Kartashova, Katya; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-11-10)
Wealth inequality in the U.S., measured by the top 1% wealth share, experienced dramatic changes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic theory suggests that the key to understanding wealth inequality is heterogeneity in the return to net worth across households. To understand the dynamics of wealth inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic, we develop a novel methodology that allows us to estimate the returns to net worth for different groups of households at relatively high frequency. We show that portfolio heterogeneity and asset price movements are the main determinants of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2114

Working Paper
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2023-01-06)
We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. We show that these differences are primarily driven by the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, which varies with states’ access to oil and gasoline transportation infrastructure, refinery technology and environmental regulations, creating cross-sectional gasoline price shocks in response to an aggregate oil price shock. Time-varying estimates do not support the view that the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2301

Surging House Prices Expected to Propel Rent Increases, Push Up Inflation
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Dolmas, Jim (2021-08-24)
The inflation rates of rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER)—the amount of rent equivalent to the cost of ownership—have declined sharply since the COVID-19 pandemic began in February 2020. However, we expect rent inflation and OER inflation to accelerate in the years to come.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-11-19)
Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, but only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2116

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