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Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Hur, Sewon; Mau, Ron; Mertens, Karel; Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2024-10-01)
The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2407

Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
Orrenius, Pia M.; Ozor, Grace; Zavodny, Madeline; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2025-07-08)
Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth. Estimates based on historical data and a structural vector autoregression model suggest gross domestic product growth in 2025 is 0.75 to 1 percentage points lower than in a benchmark simulation using the Congressional Budget Office’s immigration projections through November 2024.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks
Zhou, Xiaoqing (2023-02-14)
Financial technology-based (FinTech) lending is expected to ease U.S. mortgage market frictions that have weakened the transmission of monetary policy to households. This paper establishes that social networks play a key role in consumers’ adoption of FinTech lending, which amplifies the effects of a monetary stimulus. I provide causal estimates of the network effect on FinTech adoption using county-level data. To quantify the role of FinTech lending and network spillovers in the transmission of monetary policy shocks, I build a heterogeneous-agent model with social learning. The model ...
Working Papers , Paper 2203

CARES Act Likely to Blunt Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increase
Zhou, Xiaoqing (2020-05-26)
Household survey data and recent unemployment forecasts provide a basis for estimating the share of mortgage borrowers that—absent the CARES Act—would have missed a mortgage payment due to the economic shutdown.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2019-12-20)
We study the efficacy of releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for storage demand as well as unanticipated changes in the SPR. Using novel identifying strategies and evaluation methods, we examine seven questions. First, how much have exogenous shocks to the SPR contributed to the variability in the real price of oil? Second, how much would a one-time exogenous reduction in the SPR lower the real price of oil? Third, are exogenous SPR releases partially or fully offset by increases ...
Working Papers , Paper 1916

Journal Article
Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Wilson, Daniel J. (2026-02-17)
The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New analysis linking immigration data with employment data for specific areas suggests that the rapid rise in unauthorized immigrant worker flows increased local employment roughly one-for-one. Extending the analysis to the industry level further suggests that the slowdown of net immigration had a large negative impact on local employment, particularly for construction and manufacturing.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2026 , Issue 05 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Subcontracting in Federal Spending: Micro and Macro Implications
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Zubairy, Sarah; Park, Geumbi (2026-05-12)
This paper studies the critical but underexplored role of subcontracting in shaping the spatial and firm-level effects of federal government spending, introducing a new channel through which fiscal shocks propagate. Using newly available data on defense subcontracts merged with firm-level data, we document that a substantial share of spending is reallocated via subcontracts across regions beyond what is implied by the location of prime contracts. Firm-to-firm flows further show that subcontracting redirects spending toward large, goods-producing firms. We develop an empirical strategy that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2535

U.S. 30-Year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Sagnanert, Pon (2024-01-16)
After comparing economic data of the U.S. and other major advanced economies, we find tentative evidence that the slow adjustment of the outstanding mortgage rate in the U.S. has not played an important role in delaying the intended effects of the monetary tightening.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Wealth Inequality and Return Heterogeneity During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Kartashova, Katya; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-11-10)
Wealth inequality in the U.S., measured by the top 1% wealth share, experienced dramatic changes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic theory suggests that the key to understanding wealth inequality is heterogeneity in the return to net worth across households. To understand the dynamics of wealth inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic, we develop a novel methodology that allows us to estimate the returns to net worth for different groups of households at relatively high frequency. We show that portfolio heterogeneity and asset price movements are the main determinants of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2114

Working Paper
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2023-01-06)
We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. We show that these differences are primarily driven by the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, which varies with states’ access to oil and gasoline transportation infrastructure, refinery technology and environmental regulations, creating cross-sectional gasoline price shocks in response to an aggregate oil price shock. Time-varying estimates do not support the view that the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2301

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