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Working Paper
Banking and finance in Argentina in the period 1900-35
From 1900 to 1935, Argentina evolved from an economy highly dependent on external, primarily British, finance to one more nearly self-sufficient. The authors examine the failure of domestic finance to adequately fill the void left by the decline of London and the breakdown of the world financial system in the interwar period, when neither the Buenos Aires Bolsa nor the private domestic banks developed rapidly enough to fully replace British investors as efficient channels for financing private investment. One consequence is that Argentine investable funds were increasingly concentrated in a ...
Working Paper
Fiscal sentiment and the weak recovery from the Great Recession: a quantitative exploration
The U.S. economy isn' t recovering from the deep Great Recession of 2008?2009 with the strength predicted by models that incorporate a variety of shocks and frictions in the basic analytical framework of the neoclassical growth model. It has been argued that the counterfactual predictions shouldn 't be attributed to inherent features of that framework, but to the omission from the analysis of the prospects of an imminent switch to a higher taxes regime prompted by the unprecedented fiscal challenges faced by the U.S. economy in peacetime. The paper explores quantitatively this fiscal ...
Journal Article
The Mexican economy snaps back
Journal Article
A balanced-growth view of men's and women's unbalanced labor market recoveries
Correctly gauging the output gap is particularly difficult because an economy?s potential output is not directly observable.
Journal Article
Is the business cycle of Argentina "different?"
Despite the relative success of Real Business Cycle (RBC) models to replicate key moments of the business cycles of the United States and several European countries, economic research in Latin America tends to take the more traditional view that monetary factors play a predominant role in the economic fluctuations of countries in that part of the world. The different theoretical approach is often justified on the grounds that business cycles in Latin America are "different." However, few comparative studies have analyzed the relevant difference between the business cycles of Latin America ...
Working Paper
Argentina's capital gap puzzle
Argentinas GDP per working age person in 2003 was about the same as it was twenty years earlier and around fifteen percent below trend. By international standards that has been a dismal performance whose ultimate sources are important to uncover to eventually reverse that countrys seemingly secular decline. The purpose of this paper is precisely to take a first step towards that understanding. To that effect, we examine Argentinas recent growth experience, which includes two deep recessions and a recovery, with the lens of a neoclassical growth model that takes total factor productivity as ...
Journal Article
Exchange rates: fixed, pegged, or flex? Should we care?
Journal Article
The tequila effect