Search Results
Hours Worked by Women Age 55 to 61 Confound Labor Market Analysis
The seemingly anomalous low LIUR of one particular demographic group poses a challenge for assessing the extent to which the U.S. economy is currently close to full employment.
Working Paper
Argentina's capital gap puzzle
Argentinas GDP per working age person in 2003 was about the same as it was twenty years earlier and around fifteen percent below trend. By international standards that has been a dismal performance whose ultimate sources are important to uncover to eventually reverse that countrys seemingly secular decline. The purpose of this paper is precisely to take a first step towards that understanding. To that effect, we examine Argentinas recent growth experience, which includes two deep recessions and a recovery, with the lens of a neoclassical growth model that takes total factor productivity as ...
Working Paper
Dollarization and monetary unions: implementation guidelines
Economic Research Working Paper 0105
Working Paper
Argentina's lost decade
Argentina suffered a depression in the 1980s that was as severe as the Great Depression experienced in the United States and Germany in the interwar period. Our paper examines this depression from the perspective of growth theory, taking total factor productivity as exogenous. The predictions of the growth model conform rather well with the observations during the lost decade years. ; Economic Research Working Paper 0107
Working Paper
Banking and finance in Argentina in the period 1900-35
From 1900 to 1935, Argentina evolved from an economy highly dependent on external, primarily British, finance to one more nearly self-sufficient. We examine the failure of domestic finance to adequately fill the void left by the decline of London and the breakdown of the world financial system in the interwar period, when neither the Buenos Aires Bolsa nor the private domestic banks developed rapidly enough to fully replace British investors as efficient channels for financing private investment. One consequence is that Argentine investable funds were increasingly concentrated in a single ...
Working Paper
Argentina's lost decade and subsequent recovery: hits and misses of the neoclassical growth model
We examine the economic depression that Argentina suffered in the 1980s, as well as the subsequent recovery, from the perspective of growth theory, taking total factor productivity as exogenous. The predictions of the neoclassical growth model conform rather well with the evidence for the "lost decade" depression and at the same time point to a puzzle: Investment did not recover in the subsequent decade of the 1990s nearly as fast as it should have according to that same model.
Working Paper
Argentina's recovery and "excess" capital shallowing of the 1990s
The paper examines Argentinas economic expansion in the 1990s through the lens of a parsimonious neoclassical growth model. The main finding is that investment remained considerably weaker than what the model would have predicted. The resulting excessive capital shallowing could be identified as a weakness of the rapid economic growth of the 1990s that may have played a role in Argentinas ultimate inability to escape the crisis that started to unfold towards the end of that decade. ; Economic Research Working Paper 0204
Journal Article
Inflation is not always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon
Fiscal policy is as significant as, and sometimes more important than, monetary policy in determining the price level and, therefore, the dynamics of inflation.
Journal Article
Default and lost opportunities: a message from Argentina for euro-zone countries
Argentina's experience suggests that default will be accompanied by costs that may be missed by looking only at output growth.