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Speech
Monetary policy and the independence dilemma
Williams, John C. (2015-05-01)
Presentation to Chapman University, Orange, California , May 1, 2015
Speech , Paper 136

Working Paper
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest : International Trends and Determinants
Holston, Kathryn; Williams, John C.; Laubach, Thomas (2016-08-19)
U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest ? the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances ? have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there through the end of 2015. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-073

Working Paper
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants
Holston, Kathryn; Williams, John C.; Laubach, Thomas (2016-12-15)
U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest?the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances?have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there through the end of 2015. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the Laubach-Williams ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-11

Speech
Rules of Three
Williams, John C. (2024-01-10)
Remarks at Bronx EDC and BICNY’s 2024 Regional Economic Outlook, White Plains, New York.
Speech

Working Paper
The Responses of Wages and Prices to Technology Shocks
Williams, John C.; Laubach, Thomas; Edge, Rochelle M. (2003-12-01)
This paper reexamines wage and price dynamics in response to permanent shocks to productivity. We estimate a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of the U.S. economy with sticky wages and sticky prices using impulse responses to technology and monetary policy shocks. We utilize a flexible specification for wage- and price-setting that allows for the sluggish adjustment of both the levels of these variables as in standard contracting models as well as intrinsic inertia in wage and price inflation. On the price front, we find that in our VAR inflation jumps in response to an ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2003-21

Speech
Preparing for the Unknown
Williams, John C. (2021-11-17)
Remarks at the 2021 U.S. Treasury Market Conference (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Discussion Paper
When Are Central Bank Reserves Ample?
Afonso, Gara; Giannone, Domenico; La Spada, Gabriele; Williams, John C. (2024-08-13)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) implements monetary policy in a regime of ample reserves, whereby short-term interest rates are controlled mainly through the setting of administered rates. To do so, the quantity of reserves in the banking system needs to be large enough that everyday changes in reserves do not cause large variations in the policy rate, the so-called federal funds rate. As the Fed shrinks its balance sheet following the plan laid out by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2022, how can it assess when to stop so that the supply of reserves remains ample? In the first post of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240813

Report
Transforming financial services. Banking supervision’s Tracy Basinger explains why the intersection of finance and technology–fintech–is a matter of great importance and interest to the Fed
Williams, John C.; Basinger, Tracy (2015)
Innovations in technology are transforming relationships between the Fed, the banks we supervise, and their customers. In our 2015 annual report, What We've Learned?and why it matters, we explain how the Fed is poised to evolve alongside fintech innovations.
Annual Report

Working Paper
Learning, expectations formation and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy
Williams, John C.; Orphanides, Athanasios (2008)
This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived under the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations. We assume that agents have imperfect knowledge about the precise structure of the economy and form expectations using a forecasting model that they continuously update based on incoming data. We find that the optimal control policy derived under the assumption of rational expectations can perform poorly when expectations deviate modestly from rational expectations. We then show that the optimal control policy can be made ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2008-05

Speech
Good Day Sunshine
Williams, John C. (2021-06-21)
Remarks at Midsize Bank Coalition of America (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

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