Search Results
Working Paper
Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy
Central banks pay close attention to inflation expectations. In standard models, however, inflation expectations are tied down by the assumption of rational expectations and should be of little independent interest to policy makers. In this paper, the authors relax the assumption of rational expectations with perfect knowledge and reexamine the role of inflation expectations in the economy and in the conduct of monetary policy. Agents are assumed to have imperfect knowledge of the precise structure of the economy and the policymakers' preferences. Expectations are governed by a perpetual ...
Conference Paper
Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era
The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate the economy during downturns. We use the FRB/US model to quantify the effects of the zero bound on macroeconomic stabilization and to explore how policy can be designed to minimize these effects. During particularly severe contractions, open-market operations alone may be insufficient to restore equilibrium; some other stimulus is needed. Abstracting from such rare events, if policy follows the Taylor rule and targets a zero-inflation rate, there is a significant increase in the variability of ...
Working Paper
Transition dynamics in vintage capital models: explaining the postwar catch-up of Germany and Japan
We consider a neoclassical interpretation of Germany and Japan's rapid postwar growth that relies on a catch-up mechanism through capital accumulation where technology is embodied in new capital goods. Using a putty-clay model of production and investment, we are able to capture many of the key empirical properties of Germany and Japan's postwar transitions, including persistently high but declining rates of labor and total-factor productivity growth, a U-shaped response of the capital-output ratio, rising rates of investment and employment, and moderate rates of return to capital.
Report
Does college matter?
A series of essays authored by San Francisco Fed President and CEO John C. Williams, Senior Vice President and Associate Director of Research Mary C. Daly, Research Associate Yifan Cao, and Senior Economic Education Manager Jody Hoff, argue that the answer to the questions 'Does college matter?' is a resounding yes.
Report
What we’ve learned ... and why it matters. 2015 Annual Report President's Letter
2015 Annual Report President's Letter. Report consists of web-text, videos and podcasts, available at: http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/about/annual-report/annual-report-2015/#toc
Report
The San Francisco Fed and the West: a century of reinvention
John C. Williams and Sam Zuckerman explore how our region grew into an economic and cultural pacesetter for the world, and how the San Francisco Fed evolved to become part of a 21st century central banking system. The story offers important lessons on what it took for the West to become a force for economic progress during the past century and how the qualities rooted in the spirit of the region will be essential in the years ahead.
Report
An overview of our 2015 Annual Report. John Williams, president and chief executive officer, and Mark Gould, first vice president, welcome you to the San Francisco Fed’s 2015 annual report, “What We’ve Learned…and why it matters”
In our 2015 annual report, What We've Learned?and why it matters, we reflect on the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's efforts to create a growing, sustainable economy for everyone. The report looks across teams and disciplines, from economic research to human resources, shedding light on various points of view and approaches to our work. You?ll see the faces and hear the voices of San Francisco Fed employees from across functions?curious people who are committed to learning and to public service. It's an honest look back at what we?ve learned and why it matters.
Report
Redefining the labor market. SF Fed economists Rob Valletta, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Mary C. Daly share their thoughts on the U.S. labor market with fellow economist President John Williams
Changes in demographics, and in employer and worker needs, have redefined the U.S. labor market. We discuss the "new normal" in our 2015 annual report, What We've Learned?and why it matters. Observations include how the gig economy?or sharing economy?is affecting the part-time workforce. We also look at influences on labor force participation rates and clarify the math behind sluggish wage growth. A consideration for both is the retirement of higher-earning baby boomers and the increase in steady employment for lower-wage workers.
Report
Transforming financial services. Banking supervision’s Tracy Basinger explains why the intersection of finance and technology–fintech–is a matter of great importance and interest to the Fed
Innovations in technology are transforming relationships between the Fed, the banks we supervise, and their customers. In our 2015 annual report, What We've Learned?and why it matters, we explain how the Fed is poised to evolve alongside fintech innovations.
Report
The fragility of finances. SF Fed Community Development's Laura Choi talks with President John Williams about creative placemaking, a neighborhood revitalization strategy that engages local artists and performers
In the 2015 annual report, What We've Learned...and why it matters, we discuss creative placemaking, a new concept that refers to the enhanced role art plays in our communities. We've learned that creating culturally relevant spaces, ones that are vibrant and attractive, increases a community?s economic potential. Creative placemaking taps into local artists and communities, ensuring culturally significant voices are represented and reflected.