Search Results
Journal Article
Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates
Conference Paper
Has the business cycle changed?
Conference Paper
Has inflation become harder to forecast?
Working Paper
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations
Journal Article
Using econometric models to predict recessions
Working Paper
The Past and Future of U.S. Structural Change: Compositional Accounting and Forecasting
We explore the evolving significance of different production sectors within the U.S. economy since World War II and provide methods for estimating and forecasting these shifts. Using a compositional accounting approach, we find that the well-documented transition from goods to services is primarily driven by two compositional changes: 1) the rise of Intellectual Property Products (IPP) as an input producer, replacing Durable Goods almost one-for-one in terms of input shares in virtually all sectors; and 2) a shift in consumer spending from Nondurable Goods to Services. A structural model ...
Journal Article
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach : commentary
Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary Transmission
Conference Paper
Recent changes in trend and cycle, remarks